1) You haven't had a bet in a while. Perhaps you've been busy. You finally get a chance to look at the markets but nothing really fits your normal method of betting/trading. What do you do?
2) If you get in late and the event you were interested in is already half-way through. What's your reaction?
3) You're trading a match, it works out well and you make a few ticks before closing your position. But then you see the market move dramatically even further in the direction you had predicted. How do you feel then, knowing that you have missed out on a larger win?
4) You assess a particular market and make a judgment about how it should pan out. For one reason or the other, however, you decide not to get involved. Later you see your prediction was spot on. What's your attitude?
You may say these are all stupid questions because the answers are axiomatic, completely self-evident. Everyone's reactions and feelings will be the same, won't they? Well, maybe and maybe not. The key to all this, however, is down to the next question:
Based on your feeling to each of the questions above... what do you do next?
- For question 1) do you have a bet anyway? Or do you switch off your computer?
- For question 2) do you jump in and try and "recover" what you think you've lost by missing the start of the event? Do you increase your stakes to win the same as you would have done had you been there at the start? Or do you either leave the event alone completely, saying to yourself that you'll get on the next one? Or perhaps you do attempt to trade the event, fully accepting that if you do happen to make a profit, it will undoubtedly be smaller than a full game's trading.
- For question 3) do you jump back into the market to try and regain what, in your heart, you feel that you should have won? Or do you say to yourself "c'est la vie" and carry on as normal?
- For question 4) do you have a substitute bet to try and regain what you have lost? Or do you say to yourself that there is a new opportunity just around the corner and maybe you'll catch that one?
Part of this "picking your moments" thing is trying to get away from thinking that you're always missing something good. When you're out or when your computer's not on, perhaps you're missing some amazing betting opportunity, perhaps there are people on there right now making a killing?
Well yes, they probably are. And yes, undoubtedly you are missing an opportunity. Get used to the idea. Stop thinking that you're always missing the boat because a new boat is right around the corner.
So stay disciplined. Set up some simple rules for yourself and try to stick with them. We all "fall off the wagon" now and then, but the bulk of your betting must have some form of order. It must comply to whatever rules YOU decide. Each of us must know what works for us and what doesn't. So stick with that and put aside this nagging feeling that you're missing out on something wonderful. Because the fact is that we are all missing out.
Had another fantastic day in the markets today, winning over £200 overall. Started off early trading the Aussie Open. Managed to trade the first set before, unfortunately, having to go out. I got back a few hours later and was astonished to see it just finishing, so it looks like it was a truly great final. I feel a bit gutted to have missed the spectacle.
Overall, I think I've finished the two weeks of the tournament just about £7 down, which is not too bad. All my losses were from pre-set bets (the dutch in the winners market and a straight £50 loss on a twin bet where the second part didn't trigger for some reason). All my in-play tennis trading, however, went well and this is not really a surprise. I always feel more comfortable in-play as it's possible to react to what's actually happening, rather than trying to make an overall prediction. I also feel that it's not too difficult to read the play as it progresses.
The football went very well today, and I really feel that I'm going from strength to strength now. Of course this is just the kind of scenario that leads to a large loss so I await that with a resigned smile. The one thing we all know from betting is that it will bite you in the arse just when you think you've cracked it.
Anyway, here's today's results:
Tennis: £14.77 | Tote: | Total P&L: £14.77
Tennis Showing 1 - 2 of 2 markets
Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Tennis / Mens Tournament : Winner 29-Jan-12 08:30 29-Jan-12 14:40 0.97
Tennis / Djokovic v Nadal : Match Odds 29-Jan-12 08:30 29-Jan-12 14:39 13.80
Football: £198.60 | Tote: | Total P&L: £198.60
Football Showing 1 - 8 of 8 markets
Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Malaga v Sevilla : Correct Score 29-Jan-12 20:30 29-Jan-12 22:28 25.78
Football / AC Milan v Cagliari : Correct Score 29-Jan-12 19:45 29-Jan-12 21:41 26.71
Football / AC Milan v Cagliari : Over/Under 2.5 goals 29-Jan-12 19:45 29-Jan-12 21:19 2.14
Football / Arsenal v Aston Villa : Correct Score 29-Jan-12 16:00 29-Jan-12 17:56 49.87
Football / Arsenal v Aston Villa : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 29-Jan-12 16:00 29-Jan-12 17:18 2.30
Football / Arsenal v Aston Villa : Over/Under 2.5 goals 29-Jan-12 16:00 29-Jan-12 17:17 25.27
Football / Sunderland v Middlesbrough : Correct Score 29-Jan-12 13:30 29-Jan-12 15:29 37.70
Football / Sunderland v Middlesbrough : Over/Under 2.5 goals 29-Jan-12 13:30 29-Jan-12 15:26 28.83
Here's what I generally do in your situations:
ReplyDelete1.) In the past I used to try to bet just to get some action, but this year I made a vow to be more disciplined. So far I have not got involved in a match just for the sake of some action but rather wait for the right matches (there are many, many matches afterall). So far the results have been extremely pleasing (to me)
2.) I will monitor the game to see if there are any "natural" in-play opportunities and get involved then, but I never get involved just because it was a match I was *planning* to get involved in in the first place.
3.) Initially I feel a pang of regret, as anyone would, but then as long as I got out with a profit I am happy with, then ultimately I am happy. The position, afterall, could have almost as easily gone against me too.
4.) Again, a pang of regret, but if I didn't get involved in a match that otherwise met my criteria, there must have been something about it that was a red flag; that red flag could have just as easily made the trade into a losing one. I just shrug my shoulders, make note of the results for my data records, and mve on to one of the many other matches I can get involved in that pass all my criteria and have no red flags.
Hi SilkBC
ReplyDeleteThanks for your response. All your answers to the four scenarios seem eminently sensible and, from my own experience, these are the kind of answers that will lead someone towards being profitable.
A good part of the battle is the mental strength not to divert from the course, and it looks to me like you may have won that battle.
Eddie.
I feel that whilst there's a lot in what Silk says, the reality for most traders is a mixture of both approaches. I'll start a trading session with a clear view of a trade I have identified in advance, and I will execute that trade come hell or water high if it has passed my selection criteria.
ReplyDeleteThen, whilst trading that one, I will often jump on to what appear to be good opportunities. Some work, some don't and most nearly do. And it's the nearly do's that are hardest to call - ie when to stick and when to twist. Find that and bottle it and we can all retire.
Hi Dave
ReplyDeleteI think if someone is too rigid in their approach they can lead themselves into trouble (for example, if you had decided it was going to be a low-scoring match and were determined to trade on that basis, but both teams were busting a gut to score), and also they could miss a trick by failing to spot opportunities as they come along. So I would agree with you.
However, I don't think any of that contradicts the points I was trying to make. Changing strategy half-way through an event is not the same as diving in just because you miss the buzz of betting or because you feel you might be missing out on something good. One is a planned change of strategy based on what's happening. The other is some kind of desperation to get a betting fix. These are two entirely different things.
Thanks for the comment. It's appreciated.