LTD And Dead Bots

It's a hoary old chestnut, and one I haven't tasted in a while, but I played the old Lay The Draw tonight in the Crystal Palace v Cardiff Carling Cup game (still playing). The draw odds were low to start and, even though the goal expectation was low, I just "fancied" a goal would be scored. No real logic to my thinking of course, and if I'd lost then I would have got everything I deserved, but a Palace goal just before half-time has allowed me to green-up with a small profit.

I'm finding recently that I've been able to perform some okay one-off bets and/or trades while stuck in my hotel. My phone connection seems steadier here than it used to be, and it has the advantage of relieving a bit of boredom also. My usual betting patterns however are completely out the question.

This "I fancied" stuff that I've just mentioned ties-in with Dave Gun's excellent blog over at http://soccercompounding.blogspot.com. In his entry entitled "In my opinion, ultimately its matter of opinion", he discusses finding value based on opinion or based on mathematical criteria. This is an interesting debate, but in my view it's not about whether value is best found using one method or the other, it's about something else entirely different.

I'd say a mixture of the two is great, but surely the argument all centres around automation. The reason we all love the idea of using purely mathematical criteria for our selections is that, if proven successful, then this can be automated. Finding value based on opinion, whilst some may be able to achieve, will always mean that a manual approach has to be adopted, but if a mathematical approach can lead to automation, then this has got to be everyone's dream, isn't it? It's the old "sit back and rake in the profits" scenario. Betting Nirvana.

For myself, I've been playing around with bots for years, with no real success. I also always have a ton of ideas of betting strategies that I'm either trialling or have queued up to trial at a later date. The problem is that there just isn't enough hours in the day. Consequently, my computer is a bot grave yard, a place where bots go to die. I have hundreds of tested, half-tested, half-built bots, some of which have yielded profits for a short period of time, getting me all hot and bothered with excitement, only for them to later move steadily into the red. It's continually frustrating, but an area that I'm not yet ready to give-up on.
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P.S. I know I've promised you an entry on the Correct Score, but each time I keep thinking of other bits to put in and so I'm not finished on it yet. Hopefully it will be worth the wait.