Wednesday, 30 November 2011

Trading Strategies

What are your trading strategies? What markets do you tend towards? What works for you and what doesn't?

This last question is very important, and one that you may not be able to fully answer unless you keep accurate records of all your bets. For myself, I record every bet/trade/scalp that I make, and my spreadsheet automatically details what bets on what markets I am profitable in and those that I am not. This then tells me which areas to concentrate on and which to avoid.

Before I had this spreadsheet, I mistakenly thought I was profitable in one area, but the reality was the complete opposite. If you presently do not record all your betting activity, then I would urge you to do so.

As you've probably seen from my daily P/Ls, I tend to concentrate on the Under/Over markets and the Match Odds. These have proved happy hunting grounds for me, and I'm comfortable that I can make these markets pay while trading in-play. You must do the same. Be selective, work hard and hopefully we can all go on a profitable ride together.

In the next few entries, if I'm not betting, I'll post-up some basic ideas and strategies that you may (or may not) want to look at. Either way, it may trigger some ideas in your head and prove helpful.

Tuesday, 29 November 2011

Trading Methodology

Okay, as mentioned before, I find myself stuck in a hotel on Tuesday and Wednesday nights, and so tend to refrain from any footy trading. As I write, there are Carling Cup games being played (Liverpool and Cardiff winning their respective games), but I keep my powder dry until I know I can trade properly.

What do I mean by trading properly? Well, that means being able to green/red-up any outstanding position with a reliable connection into Betfair. Even though my connection via my phone is generally stable, I've been bitten before where I've been locked out by a dropped connection.

So, during the absence of any trading, perhaps we can talk about methodology. First-off, I work-up my own stats for in-play betting. This involves things like:

  • Percentage of games with a goal in the second-half when the first-half is goalless.
  • Percentage of games with a goal in the second-half when the first-half has one goal/two goals.
  • Average time for a second goal to be scored after a first goal is scored.
  • Percentage of games that finish > 2.5 goals after one goal is scored in the first-half.
  • Percentage of games where the away team lead at half-time and go on to win/do not win.
  • Average goal time for the home team
  • Average goal time for the away team
  • etc.
All the types of stat as above help enormously when making instant decisions while trading in-play. I also work-up my own stats for:

  • Goal Supremacy
  • ELO Ratings
  • Poisson
  • Rate Form
  • Score Ability
  • Game Form
  • Power Ratings
  • Dyads and Triads
If you're not familiar with any of these then you should be able to find them by Googling them. These stats are also beneficial. These are not used in isolation, but rather used as aids during the game to help assess what is likely to happen in a game. More often than not, these stats assist in making a successful trade.

In short, arm yourself with as much weaponry as you can to help you make the right decisions at the right time.

Monday, 28 November 2011

It's Christmas!

Well, it is in my house. My wife (backed-up by my kids) has insisted that we get all the Christmas decorations down from the loft, and our tree is already proudly standing in our lounge, all lights ablaze.

Another straightforward night of trading. Bit rushed for time at the present, so I'll post-up a more detailed entry tomorrow.

Football: £63.53 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £63.53 


Football Showing 1 - 4 of 4 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Charlton v Huddersfield : Correct Score 28-Nov-11 19:45  28-Nov-11 21:46  20.68
Football / Charlton v Huddersfield : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 28-Nov-11 19:45  28-Nov-11 21:42  6.02
Football / Charlton v Huddersfield : Over/Under 2.5 goals 28-Nov-11 19:45  28-Nov-11 21:42  26.29
Football / Fortuna Dusseldorf v G Furth : Over/Under 2.5 goals 28-Nov-11 19:15  28-Nov-11 20:37  10.54

Sunday, 27 November 2011

Gary Speed

Like everyone else today, feel shocked by the news of Gary Speed. Three or four years ago, I tried to get my son interested in football by taking him to a match at the Valley between Charlton and Sheffield Utd. Gary Speed was playing and my son managed to get his autograph. Seems incredible that someone who, on the surface, seemed to have it all felt he was so unhappy that he would take such drastic action.

In the circumstances, it feels vulgar to talk about my day today, but everything went well, betting-wise. Used a variety of scalping and some basic trading techniques and it all panned out okay.

Football: £118.48 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £118.48 


Football Showing 1 - 7 of 7 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / AC Milan v Chievo : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 27-Nov-11 19:45  27-Nov-11 21:38  20.37
Football / AC Milan v Chievo : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 27-Nov-11 19:45  27-Nov-11 20:32  1.35
Football / Liverpool v Man City : Over/Under 2.5 goals 27-Nov-11 16:00  27-Nov-11 17:56  20.70
Football / Liverpool v Man City : Correct Score 27-Nov-11 16:00  27-Nov-11 17:55  26.64
Football / Swansea v Aston Villa : Correct Score 27-Nov-11 13:30  27-Nov-11 15:32  21.18
Football / Swansea v Aston Villa : Over/Under 2.5 goals 27-Nov-11 13:30  27-Nov-11 15:28  19.61
Football / Swansea v Aston Villa : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 27-Nov-11 13:30  27-Nov-11 15:28  8.63

Saturday, 26 November 2011

Betfair Down (again)

Aaargh! Bastards!

Betfair down YET again. This is infuriating.
By all accounts (from other's reports) I have even been lucky to be able to login without any real problems into the Stoke v Blackburn game. A few seconds before half-time, I was unable to green-up an open position, but after quickly logging-in to Betfair Lite (always worth keeping a link for this handy), I was able to green-up. After half-time, I was able to carry-on without any further problems.

And that's where it's ended, I'm afraid. I was going to attack the Bundesliga games but cannot get on any of them. Even if I could, the Betfair Live Video page is also down, and so I cannot watch any match. This is incredibly piss-poor. Betfair are doing all they can to annoy everyone, and suck the last bit of goodwill their customers have for the site.

I would love to go over to Betdaq but, although their horse racing liquidity has improved this year, the football events are still a joke. Ho hum.

No more betting for me today.

Soccer: £84.60 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £84.60 


Soccer Showing 1 - 3 of 3 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Soccer / Stoke v Blackburn : Correct Score 26-Nov-11 12:45  26-Nov-11 14:39  29.30
Soccer / Stoke v Blackburn : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 26-Nov-11 12:45  26-Nov-11 14:29  3.91
Soccer / Stoke v Blackburn : Over/Under 2.5 goals 26-Nov-11 12:45  26-Nov-11 14:15  51.39

Friday, 25 November 2011

Patience is the Key

Tonight's profit is entirely from scalping. Many people assume scalping is not worth the trouble, or perhaps is too risky or time-consuming. But over the course of three hours, this amounts to an hourly rate of nearly £19 per hour, which is getting on for £36,000 per annum.

This is well above the national average wage, and therefore cannot be sniffed at!

Soccer: £56.56 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £56.56 


Soccer Showing 1 - 6 of 6 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Soccer / Udinese v Roma : Correct Score 25-Nov-11 19:45  25-Nov-11 21:47  12.38
Soccer / Udinese v Roma : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 25-Nov-11 19:45  25-Nov-11 21:41  3.20
Soccer / FC Koln v Mgladbach : Correct Score 25-Nov-11 19:30  25-Nov-11 21:23  11.56
Soccer / FC Koln v Mgladbach : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 25-Nov-11 19:30  25-Nov-11 21:21  6.02
Soccer / FC Koln v Mgladbach : Over/Under 2.5 goals 25-Nov-11 19:30  25-Nov-11 20:37  14.47
Soccer / FSV Frankfurt v Paderborn : Match Odds 25-Nov-11 17:00  25-Nov-11 18:49  8.93

Thursday, 24 November 2011

An Explanation

I suppose I should explain why you haven't seen me bet anything on the Champions League matches this midweek. Surely there were lots of opportunities to attack?

Well, maybe so. But unlike many Betfarians, I am not a full-time bettor. I work Monday to Friday as a contract software developer - working away from home on Tuesday and Wednesday , and coming back home on Thursday. Staying in a hotel on Tuesday and Wednesday nights means that I have no reliable internet connection.

There is a WiFi connection available in the hotel, but it's piss poor and incredibly slow. This then leaves my mobile to act as a modem, which again is slow and inconsistent.
This means that my betting will tend to be only from Thurday evening to Monday evening, with nothing in-between.

Coming home this evening, I had time to play with my new smartphone that had arrived whilst I was away (it's great fun!), and then I just jumped on the last twenty minutes of the Italian Cup game between Cagliari and Sienna. Small profit but no dramas and it's always nice to earn something when I get home. Hopefully I'll have something a bit more "meaty" for you all tomorrow.

Football: £18.81 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £18.81 


Football Showing 1 - 1 of 1 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Cagliari v Siena : Match Odds 24-Nov-11 20:15  24-Nov-11 22:09  18.81

Monday, 21 November 2011

Bum, Tits, Sex, Fanny

Well, I have to do something to make this entry more interesting. Another uninspiring day today, I'm afraid.

Got caught in a negative position (yet again!) during the Spurs game - showing -£177 - and had to work to slowly pull that back. Only just crept into green in the last couple of minutes. So, a small profit again (with a bit also on a Bundesliga 2 game during the Spurs half-time.

Please visualise me standing tall, and then bowing low to the ground, as a form of apology for the boring trading:

Football: £22.14 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £22.14 


Football Showing 1 - 2 of 2 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Tottenham v Aston Villa : Over/Under 2.5 goals 21-Nov-11 20:00  21-Nov-11 21:52  14.17
Football / Bochum v Cottbus : Correct Score 21-Nov-11 19:15  21-Nov-11 21:06  7.97

Sunday, 20 November 2011

Distractions, Distractions

... How easy it is to lose money from distractions. I was scalping today, knocking up a decent bit of profit, had over £30 on the Millwall v Bristol City game... when it happened.

My wife came in with a cup of tea, a quick joke and a squeeze of her arse later, and I looked round to see a goal go in and landed myself with a red of £184! Aaarrgh!

These things drive me mad, because I keep allowing myself to be distracted when I have a position in the game. No excuse for it, no one else to blame but myself, but here it is, happening again. Ho hum.

The rest of the day, of course, was spent trying to regain my position before I sat down today. Take note though, I did NOT increase my stakes or move into markets or strategies that I don't normally do. That is the way to the poor house. Instead, I maintained my attitude and my discipline and just kept plodding on.

As you can see below, the Chelsea v Liverpool match was good to me. This is traditionally a low-scoring affair, so when Chelsea equalised, I went for a straight back of Under 3.5 goals at that point. A late goal was scored by Liverpool, which left the profit at around £35, but I felt that Liverpool could see the game out, and so let the bet ride. I realise this is in no way trading, but sometimes we all make value judgments. The Correct Score profit was normal scalping.

Overall, a £16 loss on the day, but with the start, I am more than happy with this. Feel exhausted now, but am happy :-)

Football Showing 1 - 7 of 7 markets
Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Chelsea v Liverpool : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 20-Nov-11 16:00 20-Nov-11 17:52 101.96
Football / Chelsea v Liverpool : Correct Score 20-Nov-11 16:00 20-Nov-11 17:52 34.41
Football / Stuttgart v Augsburg : Over/Under 2.5 goals 20-Nov-11 14:30 20-Nov-11 15:39 0.98
Football / Juventus v Palermo : Over/Under 2.5 goals 20-Nov-11 14:00 20-Nov-11 15:22 7.71
Football / Millwall v Bristol City : Over/Under 2.5 goals 20-Nov-11 13:15 20-Nov-11 14:38 -183.59
Football / Bologna v Cesena : Correct Score 20-Nov-11 11:30 20-Nov-11 13:26 7.60
Football / Bologna v Cesena : Match Odds 20-Nov-11 11:30 20-Nov-11 13:25 14.16

Saturday, 19 November 2011

Trading, Betting and Sorting Crap

Been stuck in my garage most of the day clearing out all the crap that has been stored in  there since time immemorial (found Lord Lucan hiding at the back).

This has meant that I haven't had my full "betting head" on today, and have missed a lot of games. It's also meant that the stop-start nature of the day has led to inconsistent behaviour and inconsistent results. This is not an excuse, but something that I've found many times. If I haven't been able to dedicate the entire day to betting, then I'll often make dubious betting decisions. Maybe the scrambled mess inside my garage is a metaphor for hotch-potch behaviour today?

Anyway, despite getting caught out at least four times today in a negative position, I have still thankfully come away from the day with a small profit. It's hardly worth the amount of time I've spent betting today but, as they say, profit is profit (small fish are sweet, and all that).

Football: £28.33 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £28.33 

Football Showing 1 - 9 of 9 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Swansea v Man Utd : Over/Under 2.5 goals 19-Nov-11 17:30  19-Nov-11 19:27  1.62
Football / B Munich v Dortmund : Match Odds 19-Nov-11 17:30  19-Nov-11 19:25  -58.07
Football / Swansea v Man Utd : Correct Score 19-Nov-11 17:30  19-Nov-11 19:24  36.61
Football / Inter v Cagliari : Match Odds 19-Nov-11 17:00  19-Nov-11 18:56  49.12
Football / Inter v Cagliari : Over/Under 2.5 goals 19-Nov-11 17:00  19-Nov-11 18:50  6.49
Football / Norwich v Arsenal : Correct Score 19-Nov-11 12:45  19-Nov-11 14:37  16.26
Football / Norwich v Arsenal : Match Odds 19-Nov-11 12:45  19-Nov-11 14:37  9.09
Football / Norwich v Arsenal : Over/Under 2.5 goals 19-Nov-11 12:45  19-Nov-11 14:03  -40.20
Football / H Rostock v St Pauli : Over/Under 2.5 goals 19-Nov-11 12:00  19-Nov-11 13:49  7.41

Unusually for me, I went with straight match odds bets for the Inter and Bayern Munich matches, which resulted in a net loss of £9.00. Serves me right!

First in the bag

Hi all

These will probably be occasional posts, but will hopefully help a few lost trading souls along the way.

I have been trading football (with mixed success) for four or five years now. Like many of you, I've experienced the highs and the lows. I "think" that my trading has now taken a turn for the better, but time will of course tell. In the meantime, I will post my progress as we go.

Okay, for my first "blogged" night of trading on Betfair, this is how I faired:

FootballShowing 1 - 6 of 6 markets
MarketStart timeSettled dateProfit/loss (£)
Football / Livorno v Ascoli : Match Odds18-Nov-11 19:45 18-Nov-11 21:38 10.53
Football / Kaiserslautern v Leverkusen : Correct Score18-Nov-11 19:30 18-Nov-11 21:21 9.61
Football / Kaiserslautern v Leverkusen : Over/Under 2.5 goals18-Nov-11 19:30 18-Nov-11 21:19 2.22
Football / Kaiserslautern v Leverkusen : Match Odds18-Nov-11 19:30 18-Nov-11 21:19 47.26
Football / Kaiserslautern v Leverkusen : Over/Under 1.5 Goals18-Nov-11 19:30 18-Nov-11 20:57 3.84
Football / Ingolstadt v 1860 Munich : Correct Score18-Nov-11 17:00 18-Nov-11 18:52 28.89

This included a slightly lucky profit on the Match Odds for the Bundesliga game (as I was on the right side of the book when a goal went in), but I will take what I can.

My apologies if this initial entry is a little short on content, but I'm fully pissed now, and approaching One O'clock in the morning, my mind is already on my pit upstairs.

Hopefully we'll chat again soon. There are some good games on tomorrow!