Friday, 31 August 2012

Breakaway


Had a lovely week in Wiltshire with my wife and kids. Stonehenge, Longleat, Chedder Gorge and Centre Parcs. The weather wasn't great but we managed to muddle along and we all had a great time.

Talking of quick breaks, what about Athletico Madrid tonight? Fantastic stuff. Chelsea were taught a hard football lesson this evening by Madrid in the Super Cup. Falcao is simply magnificent. What a striker. He's followed on from where he left off last season. Great stuff. Chelsea were badly found out tonight.

In addition to my normal trading, I also simply laid the current score @ 7s this evening when the score was 0-2. The game was incredibly open, Madrid were countering very quickly and incisively whilst Chelsea were looking to get back in the game. I couldn't really see how it could remain at 0-2. Luckily it didn't.

We've also had transfer deadline day today, with all the shenanigans that entails. With regards to Spurs, I'm sorry to see Van Der Vaart go, who I thought was a class player, but very happy with Dembele coming in who is a great addition. He's strong, direct and should do well in a fluid Spurs attack. Hopefully we can also get Moutinho too.

Just a quick end of month review. Only traded half the month due to the football season only starting halfway through and by being away, but still fairly happy with my progress. On the trading only:

Original bank: 75 points

+27.36 points
ROI = 9.46%
ROC = 36.48%




Football: £85.80 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £85.80

 

Football Showing 1 - 5 of 5 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Chelsea v Atl Madrid : Over/Under 5.5 Goals 31-Aug-12 19:45  31-Aug-12 21:44  7.81
Football / Chelsea v Atl Madrid : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 31-Aug-12 19:45  31-Aug-12 21:19  7.49
Football / Chelsea v Atl Madrid : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 31-Aug-12 19:45  31-Aug-12 21:05  18.87
Football / Chelsea v Atl Madrid : Correct Score 31-Aug-12 19:45  31-Aug-12 21:04  48.23
Football / Chelsea v Atl Madrid : Over/Under 2.5 goals 31-Aug-12 19:45  31-Aug-12 20:31  3.40



Monday, 20 August 2012

ROC of 900%

This post will, I'm sure, attract a fair bit of criticism and ridicule, but I'm going to put my head down and charge forward nonetheless. Please feel free to attack me in any way that pleases you.

I work in the IT industry as a contract software developer, and presently have a contract working for one of the major mobile phone corporations.

Now that every man and his dog has a mobile phone, the heady days of vast, unencumbered profits for these mobile telecom companies are at an end and they will never come back, and so they have all been looking everywhere and anywhere for cost-cutting opportunities to help support their profit margins. This means, closing buildings, shutting staff restaurants, slashing the staff numbers with voluntary and forced redundancies, and by outsourcing a great deal of their knowledge and expertise to other companies, preferring a fixed cost up front than a variable, unknown cost in the future.

All this slashing and burning and desperate penny-pinching looks for all the world like a fire sale, but of course the public explanation of all this panicked action is to call it a "slim and agile approach", making the company quicker to react to market forces and more able to divert vital resources in the direction it's required. Blah, blah, blah. You get the picture. All complete bollocks of course.



Okay, so why the hell am I talking about all this? What on earth has it go to do with betting and football trading? Well, I'm glad you asked that very astute question, and here's the answer.

Last season, I had a decent lump of capital in my Betfair account, even though I largely (but not solely) concentrated on one type of betting activity - trading. This year, however, it's my intention to diversify a little more and to make better, more varied use of my betting bank.

Consequently, I've had a re-think about my trading bank size, and have decided to dramatically shrink my bank for this one activity so that I can free up some of the cash for other aspects of my betting. This means my trading bank will now only be a "slim and agile" £1,500 and this will be divided up into 75 points. I will be trading quite aggressively with this bank and will usually risk 10pts on each trade I make (although this is not a strict rule).

I don’t really have any profit targets but, based on previous experience of how I've been able to grown my money in previous seasons, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this small bank increase by the original bank size each month or so. Currently, after eight matches and only one week into the season, my ROI is 8.76% and my ROC is 27.54%. I think that's pretty good so far, and the level of risk I've exposed myself to during this last week has been relatively small (not talking bank exposure here).


Trading of course has a completely different make-up to normal betting. In normal betting an annual ROC of 50% – 100% would be great; but if I only make £1,500 on my trading throughout the year, I will be crestfallen and will probably give-up and try something else instead. To my mind, it just wouldn’t be worth the time and effort I put in. So, as I’ve just said, even though I don’t really have any targets, I wouldn't be surprised if my trading bank were up around the £14,000 or £15,000 mark by the end of the season. I would be more than happy with that, but we'll have to wait and see how I get on.

This year, I’m also playing around with straight golf bets and straight footy bets, so it will also be interesting to see how each approach fares as the season progresses - and also how it compares and contrasts with the trading. Watch this space.


_____________________________________


Manure Indeed

After the amazingly exciting match between Man City and Southampton yesterday, this evening's game at Everton was not really in the same league... Well technically it was, but you know what I mean. I thought Everton deserved their win.

Of Man Utd's new signings, I thought Kagawa looked half-decent, and I'm sure he'll be a strong, solid addition to their squad. Van Persie came on with 20 minutes to go, but was largely invisible. He's a known quantity, however, and if he stays fit, he will produce goals.


Football: £69.66 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £69.66



Football Showing 1 - 3 of 3 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Everton v Man Utd : Over/Under 2.5 goals 20-Aug-12 20:00  20-Aug-12 21:56  21.05
Football / Everton v Man Utd : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 20-Aug-12 20:00  20-Aug-12 21:56  14.12
Football / Everton v Man Utd : Correct Score 20-Aug-12 20:00  20-Aug-12 21:53  34.49


_____________________________________


I'm taking my family away for a week break this week, and so will not be active for the next week or so. I'm taking a holiday in England and so have my fingers crossed for decent weather.



Sunday, 19 August 2012

Liquidity? It's a drought.

Traded the Wigan v Chelsea match this afternoon and made £56. Ten minutes after the Man City v Southampton game had started, I sat down again to try and trade this too. As I'm sure most of you will know, Betfair was down.

Oh well, I said to myself, this gives me a good opportunity to try Betdaq out again. Last time I checked, the liquidity was appalling, but given that Betfair was offline and the champions were playing, I suspected things would look much better.




Tumbleweed. As you can see, life over on the Purple side of the street is still incredibly poor if you are a football trader. I take a look every now and then on Betdaq, but for my style of trading, I need decent liquidity. This is just a non-starter.

It's 4:20 now. Perhaps Betfair will come back online before the match finishes. We'll wait and see.

___________________________


Update:
Well, I came in from the garden to catch the second-half of the match, and Betfair was up and running again by then. I thought that it may still be dodgy (which it sometimes is) but decided to try and trade the second-half anyway. Finished the day with almost the same profit as the day before.

Cracking game of football in the second-half, and I almost heard myself saying "Olympics? What Olympics?"


Football: £106.94 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £106.94 

 

Football Showing 1 - 6 of 6 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Man City v Southampton : Correct Score 19-Aug-12 16:00  19-Aug-12 18:02  41.05
Football / Man City v Southampton : Over/Under 2.5 goals 19-Aug-12 16:00  19-Aug-12 17:34  8.98
Football / Wigan v Chelsea : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 19-Aug-12 13:30  19-Aug-12 15:22  11.10
Football / Wigan v Chelsea : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 19-Aug-12 13:30  19-Aug-12 15:22  15.56
Football / Wigan v Chelsea : Over/Under 2.5 goals 19-Aug-12 13:30  19-Aug-12 15:22  -10.46
Football / Wigan v Chelsea : Correct Score 19-Aug-12 13:30  19-Aug-12 15:22  40.71


Saturday, 18 August 2012

Gone Fishing

Start of the new season proper today. The Premier League kicks-off, the Championship fires into life, the drama and emotion begins anew.

So what did I do? I went fishing. Well, the weather was just too lovely. An absolutely gorgeous day which had to be taken advantage of. When we're in the bitter cold and driving rain of November, then I don't want to look back and regret not taking the opportunity to bask in the great weather while it was here.

Happily, even spending most of the day out and about, I still managed some trading. Got back from the seafront (no fish) about 2:00 and so jumped on the last twenty minutes of the Leeds match. Then after lunch we went out again and got the finicular railway up to the clifftop, where we flew our kite and relaxed on the grass soaking up the glorious sunshine.

Back at 5:30 this evening, just in time for Newcastle v Spurs. Felt Spurs were a little unlucky but that seems to be Spurs usual start to the season nowadays. Then, immediately after the match ended, I was up and out into the garden, firing-up the barbeque with a few glasses of wine. Just come in from a lovely meal outside, and may well relax with more wine and watch Match of the Day.

Really enjoyable day today. I feel so relaxed and content.


Football: £106.11 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £106.11 

 

Football Showing 1 - 4 of 4 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Newcastle v Tottenham : Correct Score 18-Aug-12 17:30  18-Aug-12 19:32  46.37
Football / Newcastle v Tottenham : Over/Under 2.5 goals 18-Aug-12 17:30  18-Aug-12 19:14  7.81
Football / Newcastle v Tottenham : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 18-Aug-12 17:30  18-Aug-12 19:10  18.10
Football / Leeds v Wolves : Correct Score 18-Aug-12 12:45  18-Aug-12 14:44  33.83


____________________________________


A Football Trader's Path was graced by betting royalty today, in the shape of Peter Webb who dropped in to my blog to add this comment:

Peter Webb18 August 2012 12:22
Not fair, Betfair never seem to send me anything nowadays apart from a premium charge bill every Wednesday!


It's probably the differential that is important at Xmas. I've never really looked at this before though, so just a hunch.

Thanks for the comment, but as hard as I try, strangely I find myself uncannily unable to find any pity in my heart because Peter did not receive the booklet from Betfair. He doesn't have the booklet, and unfortunately I don't have Peter's knowledge and ability to produce consistently large profits every day (which means he incurs the premimum charge). Them's the breaks.

Al also dropped by to say:

AL18 August 2012 11:32
I certainly will be watching how the CANN tables progress over the season to see if the differences between the top teams is greater than last season.

http://www.sussex.ac.uk/Users/iane/cannyclubs.php

I can't say I've ever really looked at these tables in great detail. I believe Cassini mentioned them last season (and that's the first time I became aware of them), but I don't know if they prove more accurate as a forecasting method or not. Perhaps I'll take a look. Thanks for mentioning it.


____________________________________

I should mention that I haven't taken a very large interest in any ante-post betting this season. Normally I have some interest in the winners market but haven't done so this time. When Van Persie announced that he wasn't going to extend his contract with Arsenal, I layed the gunners at 1.76 to be one of the top four. They may well still creep into the top four places, but I'm assuming Arsenal may have a dodgy period or two before that happens - especially as their new players may need time to settle in.



Friday, 17 August 2012

Betfair Bullsh*t

Don't know if any of you have yet received Betfair's football booklet through the post, but I got mine today. There's not a great deal of any worth or interest in there, but this article did catch my eye:


Game of two halves
They say the table never lies but backing the team that’s top at Christmas is a risky strategy

People say that the first meaningful Premier League table is the one at the end of the year. In 2008 Rafael Benitiz infamously predicted that if Liverpool were taop at Christmas they would have an 80 per cent possibility of ending the season as champions. They were and they didn’t. Other teams have topped the table at Christmas and fallen away when the going get tough and squads get exposed. There is one team however that seems to get stronger as they season progresses. It’s fair to say that Man Utd have completely dominated the Premier League, winning 12 of the 20 titles. Seven of these were won when another team topped the table at Christmas.

If you really want to use the Christmas table as a prescient guide, look to the bottom of the league. Of the 20 teams that have propped up the league while tucking into their Christmas dinner, only one – West Brom in 2004/05 – has gone on to escape relegation.


So, the message seems to be clear. Don't bother backing the team who's top of the Premier League at Christmas as, chances are, they won't be there at the end of the season in May. This did interest me so I thought I would take a closer look. Here's a little table:


I suppose the thing about statistics is that it's possible to pick and choose the bits of information that best suit the point we want to make (I'm reluctant to use the phrase "cherry picking" for obvious reasons). However, personally, I think that the first ten years of this table above are less relevant than the last ten years. The make-up of the Premier League has changed in my view. The top teams are now even better, and the separation between them and the others has grown. You may disagree. However, if this is indeed accepted, then perhaps we should just look at how well the top team has performed over the last ten years when top at Christmas.

Top at Christmas and win the Premier League = 6/10

So, 60% of the time over the last ten years, the top team at Christmas has prevailed. That equates to decimal odds of 1.66. We could therefore say that, if the team who is top at Christmas are greater than 1.66 at that stage, then there could possibly be some value to be had.

This is effectively the opposite of what Betfair are telling us in their little booklet.


___________________________________


So, the first game of the new season was on the goggle-box tonight. I again took it fairy steady but my profit is slowly creeping up (without my trying to make it do so). Three matches completed in the last five days and I've made £130. I'm not too dissatisfied with that.



Football: £54.84 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £54.84

 

Football Showing 1 - 3 of 3 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Cardiff v Huddersfield : Over/Under 2.5 goals 17-Aug-12 19:45  17-Aug-12 21:40  11.59
Football / Cardiff v Huddersfield : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 17-Aug-12 19:45  17-Aug-12 21:40  4.68
Football / Cardiff v Huddersfield : Correct Score 17-Aug-12 19:45  17-Aug-12 21:39  38.57



Thursday, 16 August 2012

Spurred Off

Just a little concerned about my beloved Tottenham. They've bought no one in the off-season and they've lost Adebayor, who was admittedly a lazy bastard but still popped a few goals in; Saha, who was another decent goalscorer even though he's getting on a bit and now we are on the point of losing Modric, who is outstanding.

I know there's talk about Moutinho and M'Vila coming in but these are unknowns as far as the Premier League is concerned, and there is no guarantee we can get them anyway.

On top of this we've also lost Rednapp. This was a man who was undoubtedly not the most tactically sharp manager in the world, but who was fantastic at motivating his players. And in his place we have Villas Boas, who has yet to shine in the Premier League. Apparently he's adopting a slightly different, more relaxed, style compared to when he was at Chelsea, but with the Spurs team several percentage points weaker than they were last season, if they get off to a bad start or hit a rocky patch early on, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw the old paranoid and persecuted character from last year again.

I sincerely hope I'm wrong, but I think Spurs are heading for a worse season than we had in 2011/12. Hopefully we don't slide back to the middle of the table, where we've been so frequently seen in the last ten years.

Update:
I said we bought no one in the off-season, but we do have Sigurdsson from Swansea. Then again we also lost Ledley King through retirement

Wednesday, 15 August 2012

The Castigator Profits


After yesterday's moaning and griping about the worthlessness of today's England friendly against Italy, I of course sat down and tried to trade it (hypocrite that I am). Due to always being stuck in a hotel on Tuesday and Wednesdays this is never that easy, as I only have my tethered phone connection on my laptop. The rule on these occasion then is Caution, Caution, Caution.

After my small starting profit during the Community Shield over the weekend, my profits today are even smaller. But even though I'm vaguely embarrassed about my meagre profits tonight, I'll stick with the usual clich├ęs of "Small fish are sweet" and "profit is profit" and "any port in a storm" and "beware the evil eye" (whoops, that last one's not right, is it?).


Football: £33.10 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £33.10


Football Showing 1 - 3 of 3 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Italy v England : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 15-Aug-12 20:00  15-Aug-12 21:54  4.00
Football / Italy v England : Correct Score 15-Aug-12 20:00  15-Aug-12 21:51  19.88
Football / Italy v England : Over/Under 2.5 goals 15-Aug-12 20:00  15-Aug-12 21:36  9.22


___________________________________


Cassini has posted up a long response to my tongue-in-cheek rebuke, but I don't intend to carry on the crossing of swords. Presently after our last verbal sparring, Cassini is already a bit like the Black Knight in Monty Python and the Holy Grail after having his arms and legs chopped-off, so it wouldn't be right to pursue it further.


Get up Cassini


The only small point I would like to respond to is this:

I believe that the traders who can profit long-term from football are few and far between. SoccerDude may well be one of them, but I would like to know more about this ‘qualified and defined edge’.

In all honesty, one of the things I've really enjoyed since I joined the betting blogging community last year is that there are so many people out there willing to share knowledge and experiences to others. When I started my own small efforts here on this blog, I set out to do the same thing - and without wishing to sound too boastful I'd say there are a few decent snippits of information that I've managed to post up over the last nine months or so. This information is largely already out there in the public domain, but hopefully I've managed to distil some of down to make it more easily accessible. Whether I've succeeded in those efforts or not is up to you guys to decide.

But. Professional or hobbiest, we're all here to make money and if I think something will have the ability to negatively impact my current ability to make money whilst betting then, as far as I'm concerned, it's out of bounds for discussion on this blog or indeed anywhere else.

As mentioned, betting in-play is where my biggest edge lays and so, beyond a few generalities, you will find no specific mention on here of how I personally go about betting in-play. As long as my in-play edge persists, I will remain resolutely shtum. Sorry about that. If this sounds like a cop-out, well then so be it.

Tuesday, 14 August 2012

Being Humble


There have been quite a few articles online and in various newspapers suggesting that our over-paid and conceited Premier League footballers should take note of the sportsmanship, fair play, dedication and humility displayed by the Olympic contestants shown during the last two weeks of competition. Our footballers should look at themselves and compare their behaviour with the Olympian's level of self-discipline, good humour, style and grace. A sea change is required, some have said; an epiphany is needed, whereby our self-important players suddenly realise that their behaviour has to change for the good, and that the current situation just will not stand.

I'm sorry, but the smell of methane from all the bullshit is overpowering me. What utter nonsense. These players have never had a proper job; from day one, they've been overpaid and over-pampered and they only know one way. They all think they are God's gift to the earth and we all think they are arrogant wankers - and that's the way it's going to be. Nothing will change. Nothing of good will come of the Olympics where football is concerned. Nothing will stop the growing importance of football and thus the influence of the players on the game.

And in a way, I don't want it to. I like to hate some of the players. I enjoy villifying and denigrating them. I take comfort from the warm glow of ire and anger towards their bad behaviour and their ignorance of how they are perceived. Let's face it, football has always been more about hate than any other sport anyway. We fans feel hate and anger towards our favourite team when they fail to perform, we find disgraceful any misbehaviour from players of any other team, and we have our historical rivalries that border on hate.

So let's not kid ourselves that we're all going to start enjoying seeing our footballers as kind and humble human beings. Instead, let's just celebrate the vitriol, and the coruscating poisonous feelings that wash through the country's football grounds every week. It's fantastic.



__________________________________


By the way, what fucking dull-headed half-wit came up with the idea of an England friendly straight after the Euros and the Olympics, and a few days before the football season starts? It's a stunningly bad idea and I cannot think of a more pointless and meaningless fixture to be played in a quite some time. Whichever tosser did come up with this idea, they should be taken outside and summarily shafted by the largest hung elephant that can be found on the plains of the Serengeti. And after he's enjoyed that, he should be sacked.


...Or is that a little bit harsh?

__________________________________


Talking of humility, I'm feeling a little contrite today. Even though it was meant in a jocular manner, after re-reading my last entry I feel I've been somewhat hard and mean-spirited towards Cassini. So today, I am going to redress the balance.

Let's be clear, Cassini's blog is one of the best out there. It's well-written, full of decent content and his output is prolific. It's also one of the longer-lasting blogs discussing our favourite subject, with many others having long fallen by the wayside since he's been going. My own little corner of the blogging universe is also in its infancy compared to his, and so I should be a little more humble, I suppose.

By the way, for anyone who is genuinely interested in the analysis-side of betting, can I advise that you read the four-part series on Applying Elo Ratings to Football, written by Cassini on BettingExpert.com. It's clearly written and should provide a decent uplift in your strike-rate if used well. In these articles, he gives a good grounding on how to use Rate Form. The articles can be found here:


Okay, well, I feel a little better now. From now on, I'll try and be a good boy - although I don't hold out a lot of hope :-(



Monday, 13 August 2012

The Italian Way

Cassini from Green All Over kindly popped over to my "hood" the other day. He wandered through a couple of my blog corridors, opened a few doors and generally made himself at home here in FootyTradingPosts land. He didn't wipe his feet when he came in, I noticed, and I was surprised to see one of my sock drawers has been left open, which I can't quite fathom. Worryingly, there is also a huge bogey on one of my newly-painted walls, which looks suspiciously "Italian" in its nature - but I'll reluctantly excuse that, I suppose.

Whilst making himself at home here, Cassini did have some "issues" with the way I've decorated the place, in particular concerning my post on the Charity Shield (sorry, Community Shield). In that post, I casually mentioned that there were only eight draws from 22 Charity Shield matches since 1990, but Cassini duly pointed out that this equates to rather small odds for the draw, so what on earth was I talking about.

Okay, he has me in a head-lock there (which again, is very bad manners when visiting someone in their own home, if you ask me), so I'll hold my hand up to that. It doesn't take five seconds to calculate the odds to find the truth, and I should have done so. Fair cop.

But! My fellow blogger-type people, calculating the odds to show the true picture was just about the only thing that Cassini did get right. After that, he got it all wrong and, if I'm honest, has made a fair old mess in one of my blog rooms. It's not exactly a dirty protest in there, but jeez!

He goes onto say:

And why look back at the last 22 matches? It's not exactly a round number, so could it be because games 21 and 22 were both draws? 6 from 20 (3.33) or 9 from 30 (3.33) are also both true, suggesting the 22 figure was somewhat cherry-picked

Erm, I think you're arguing the wrong way here, my good man. I was trying to say there were not many draws in the Charity Shield, so if I was cherry-picking I would most certainly have omitted games 21 and 22, not included them. I've done myself a disservice by including them, and so the point raised makes no sense at all. As it happens, even 6 from 20 doesn't help my invalid point, but at least it's going in the right direction.

And yes, 22 matches is not a round number, but 1990 is a round number and I just plucked a cut-off date at random. Would it have made more sense to go back to 1908 when the competition started?

Okay, I'm getting nicely warmed up now. I've taken off my smoking jacket, placed my meerschaum pipe carefully in its silver holder and I've told the butler to stop ironing my newspaper so he can loosen my cufflinks. That's how serious this all is.

Cassini then states:

With probably thousands of people 'trading' this game, it seems to me that identifying in-play trading opportunities is at best difficult, and that you are better served to let the bet run. Not all matches will play out as your research suggests of course, but no one with any understanding of sports betting expects that, but the key is to be right more often than the odds suggest you should be. Value.

It's right here that I feel obliged to throw our poor Cassini a rubber ring, because he's clearly on the point of drowning. Once you've dried yourself off, you can borrow my pipe (excuse the spittle at the end of the pipe) and smoking jacket and have a good rest. You may need them more than me.

    With probably thousands of people 'trading' this game, identifying in-play trading
    opportunities is at best difficult...

Thousands of people? Oh no, whatever shall we do? I'd better stop what I'm doing straight away then. I'm never going to win.

I'm sure in-play trading opportunities are indeed "difficult" for some people, but this is where I'm completely at home, and where all my bread-and-butter betting comes from; and whilst I'm no stranger to the odd large loss when in-play (as this blog will testify), it is also a place where I have a qualified and defined edge. Is the suggestion that I now give-up this edge that I've worked so hard to acquire, and move onto something else entirely different?

Straight bets are one thing, and good solid research and analysis will serve anyone pursuing that approach well - but to suggest that in-play trading should be dropped in preference to straight betting (if that is indeed what Cassini is suggesting) seems a rather strange point to make. They are two completely different things, which can actually run side-by-side quite nicely. Two individual banks seems like a good idea to me, one for each activity. This allows a complete separation of those activities. But even if the individual doesn't want to have separate banks, I would never suggest that someone drops one activity over the other. Frankly that's bordering on ludicrous.

Ooh, I'm enjoying all this cross-blog banter. It's quite good fun...

But unfortunately I have to go now. I've put on my pink apron and my marigolds, tied a hanky in my hair and have a spray can of Mr Sheen in my hand. With Cassini's "relaxed" attitudes when visiting someone's blog, I've quite a bit of cleaning-up to do. This is not a hotel, you know!

Sunday, 12 August 2012

Baby Steps

Okay, well I've broken my new season virginity and have happily escaped unscathed. Before Chelsea had a man sent-off, I thought they were going to manage yet another undeserved win but, despite there only being a one-goal margin at the end, I thought they were well beaten. City looked good.

The game panned out as I thought it might, but I still took things carefully and only walked with baby steps. So not massive profits. But the season is long (and sometimes hard) and with all the various leagues around Europe, and the multitude of football competitions available within those leagues, there is no shortage of matches to trade. With that in mind, I don't need to start-off all guns blazing. Nice and easy does it.


 Football: £42.39 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £42.39



Football Showing 1 - 3 of 3 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Chelsea v Man City : Correct Score 12-Aug-12 13:30  12-Aug-12 15:33  16.43
Football / Chelsea v Man City : Over/Under 2.5 goals 12-Aug-12 13:30  12-Aug-12 14:52  20.71
Football / Chelsea v Man City : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 12-Aug-12 13:30  12-Aug-12 14:47  5.25


Charity Begins At Home

SoccerDude opens the creaky cupboard door, squints unenthusiastically towards the light and then, after yawning and idly scratching his balls, he tentatively climbs out the cupboard and into the daylight.

No, this is not me "coming out of the closet", but with the Charity Shield on tomorrow (whoops, it's late. I mean today), it's time for me to brush myself down and get back to some football trading after locking myself away from any real betting for a couple of months now. Afterall, that's what this blog is supposed to be about.

I have to say, I've thoroughly enjoyed my time off from trading. Yesterday, I took my wife and kids up to London and we spent a great day up there soaking-up the Olympic atmosphere and generally having a lovely time. We were all completely exhausted when we finally got home, but it was superb.

Everyone is so happy and positive with the Olympics on, and it's a great vibe all over London. I also like it compared to the World Cup, because not every last company is a "the official sponsor of the Olympics". With the World Cup, we had the official chocolate bar of the World Cup, the official breakfast cereal of the World Cup and the official deep pan fryer of the World Cup. With the Olympics having much stricter rules and controls we have happily escaped all that nonsense.

          "Anusol, the offical hemorrhoid cream of the Olympic Games."

Hmm, presumably for those Olympic-sized hemorrhoids.

Okay, I'm wandering away from my remit again. Apologies. Yes, it's the Charity Shield tomorrow and I will be trading it. As I feel somewhat rusty after my self-imposed betting layoff, I will be taking it steady, but I fully expect some kind of profit. I will report how I get on after the match.

Most people seem to expect the Charity Shield will be a draw, but since 1990, only eight matches have ended full-time as a draw, with the remaining 14 matches seeing a positive result inside 90 minutes. The last three years have seen a surfeit of goals too, so perhaps it's a chance for the top teams to spread their wings, unencumbered by any real expectations or any real dangers (a loss in the Charity Shield doesn't really "matter", so to speak). In that time, there have also only been two 0-0 scorelines, the most recent when Man Utd played Portsmouth, who may have played more defensively than most teams tend to do.

Anyway, I have no real clue about scores, but I wouldn't be surprised if a goal or two was banged in later today, and I will be trading with that in mind. The beauty of trading, of course, is that it doesn't really matter whether the goals go in or not. Trading is not guessing. It's simply taking a position for a defined period of time.

For all those football traders out there, I wish you all good luck for the forthcoming season.


Tuesday, 7 August 2012

Olymptastic


Thought I’d report in briefly tonight, if only to let you know that I’m still alive.

As most people seem to be doing, I'm thoroughly enjoying the Olympics, and am watching as much as I can.  I know the BBC tend to get heavily criticised on a regular basis for their output, or for not hitting the right tone of the occasion, or for concentrating on the wrong things - but as far as the Olympic coverage is concerned, I think they’re doing an absolutely sterling job. They are delivering-up the Olympics to the watching masses in fantastic fashion. Top job in my view. Most of the TV presenters are doing a good job too. Clare Balding covering the swimming has been my favourite so far, and I suppose Gary Lineker (the anchor) is unfortunately the worst. He's been surprisingly wooden in front of camera. At one point during his presenting, I thought someone had just thrown a chair onto the stage.

With all the various sports going on, it’s strange how the GB football team getting knocked-out of the competition generally passed me by. I don’t know about you, but I don’t find football to be a particularly good fit for the Olympics. I love football, and indeed footy is what this blog is all about, but I'm afraid to say, I couldn’t muster any real interest in the GB team and only caught the last fifteen minutes of the first match they played against Senegal. I traded it none of it.

Indeed I haven’t traded anything since the end of the football season, and have really enjoyed the break. I did briefly dally with Wimbledon but my heart wasn’t really in it. I look forward to the summer where I completely stop trading and just enjoy sport for the sake of the sport. The Olympics has been absolutely great for that.

So, I’ll continue to do nothing, but the new football season is now just around the corner, and I’ll report back properly when it does restart.

Enjoy the rest of the Olympics.

Friday, 3 August 2012

Over Before It's Begun?

As soon as Wiggins won the gold the other day, I immediately said to myself, "Ah, so that's the Sports Personality of the Year award all wrapped-up then."

William Hill seem to agree with me:

Bradley Wiggins = 1/6
Jessica Ennis = 11/2
Mo Farah = 14/1
Andy Murray 16/1
Chris Hoy = 20/1

I realise this is not a formed market, but I'm still a bit surprised to see Hoy, who is now our most successful Olympian, behind Ennis and Mo Farah, especially as Ennis has just started and Farah hasn't even competed yet, but the Wiggins price is a touch on the farcical.

Murray, Mr Monotone himself, looks like a decent lay at 16/1.