All a bit embarrassing I'm afraid, but the way I'm going, I'm heading for a large loss just around the corner - and it's doubtless what I need and deserve right now.
Got back home this evening and sat down to watch the Italian Cup match between AC Milan and Lazio. The away team scored an early goal, so I leapt straight in without any real consideration of value, goal expectancy, the way the game was going or any other factors that any decent trader should be aware of - and immediately backed Under 4.5 goals at 1.30.
Well, after 18 minutes and three goals scored, it wasn't looking very good and I faced a straight £200 loss. And, as mentioned, if this had happened then I would have fully deserved it. No question about it. I was so annoyed with myself, I didn't even try to hedge my position in any way.
Anyway, as luck would have it, there were no further goals until late in the game, by which time I'd managed to trade-out for a £4 profit. After that, my discipline happily returned and the remaining profits were steady and properly risk-assessed.
I'm sure these things probably go in cycles, but at the moment I'm making lots of mistakes and yet getting away with them each time. On another occasion I could have been £500 down from the way I've behaved this week.
So, I'll try and be a good boy for the rest of the week. Hard work and a steady approach for this weekend's F.A. Cup matches.
Football: £52.04 | Tote: | Total P&L: £52.04
Football Showing 1 - 6 of 6 markets
Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Levante v Valencia : Correct Score 26-Jan-12 20:30 26-Jan-12 22:16 7.24
Football / AC Milan v Lazio : Correct Score 26-Jan-12 19:45 26-Jan-12 21:44 40.66
Football / AC Milan v Lazio : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 26-Jan-12 19:45 26-Jan-12 21:41 4.67
Football / AC Milan v Lazio : Half Time/Full Time 26-Jan-12 19:45 26-Jan-12 21:40 -6.00
Football / AC Milan v Lazio : Half Time Score 26-Jan-12 19:45 26-Jan-12 20:33 2.59
Football / AC Milan v Lazio : Over/Under 2.5 goals 26-Jan-12 19:45 26-Jan-12 20:05 2.88
Oh, and I do realise my recent posts have been a little on the dull side, but stick with it and I promise to have something more to your liking very shortly. So watch this space!
Despite making plenty of mistakes at least you realise you are indeed making these mistakes. Next stage is to learn from the mistakes and eradicate them as much as humanly possible...easier said than done but needs to be done if you are to succeed.
ReplyDeleteBest of luck - Ben (NTF)
Hi Ben
ReplyDeleteI suppose you're right, but I'm sure even though least self-aware bettor (winning or losing) notices when they've made a mistake. The key is, as you point out, the ability to prevent them happening in the future.
I'm not sure I have this at present... but we'll see.
PS: I like the look of your site. I'm not really a GG person, but I'll have a dig around in your blog. Cheers.