Champions League Draw

Always bugged me a little that it isn't called the "Champion's League" (with an apostrophe) rather than the "Champions League" (without one), but we'll leave that to one side for the moment.

The draw for the group stages was made yesterday. Ideally I would have liked to have been at my computer when the draw was made, as there is always a chance to make money on teams who find themselves in a difficult or easy group, but I was on the motorway at the time.

Arsenal (happy days) have an awful draw and will hopefully be dispatched before the knock-out stages. Man Utd have a couple of reasonable teams in their group but should progress. Man City have Bayern in their group but overall it looks better for them than in previous years. Chelsea have the easiest route through to the knock-out stages.

Even given the draw, I personally still think Chelsea are a little short to win the whole thing. They have a decent squad but I just can't see them winning the whole thing, and at 10.5 to back, that just doesn't feel like value to me.

Anyway, time for a fun punt I think. On this occasion, I'd expect Man Utd and Man City (who I am hoping will be dark horses this time around) to make it through the group stages.  I also fancy PSG to do quite well, and they also have a favourable draw. Add in a sprinkling of a couple of outsiders in the shape of Leverkusen and Napoli and we have ourselves a bit of interest in the competition for twenty notes.

The idea of course will be to trade these teams when the knock-outs begin. Hopefully they can all make it through. Why not give it a go with your own thoughts.

Fossil Frog

Surprised to see Arsenal go down to defeat yesterday. Luis Gustavo has obviously brought some much-needed steel to their defence and they looked really solid at the back with him in there.

I also thought some of the link-up play between Gonzalo Higuain and Luis Suarez was absolutely superb. They already seem to have developed an understanding and I'm sure they are going to terrorize the other Premier League teams as the season progresses. Fast, fluid play full of goal threat. Higuain proved yesterday what an astute signing Arsenal have made, and I'm sure he will repay the large fee with goals aplenty.

I was also impressed with their new midfielder from Lyon, Maxime Gonolans. What a star he was. Spraying the ball around, orchestrating the play from the middle of the park like he owned the place. Yes indeed, despite the defeat yesterday, these are exciting times for Arsenal - and for their legion of fans...

Huh? What's that? What do you mean? Parallel universe? Are you sure?

Of course as a Spurs fan this is all enormously enjoyable and heart-warming stuff. I think it must indeed be a parallel universe because it's supposed to be us Yids that are tight-fisted, rather than our odious neighbours. But look where we are now. Wenger has got so used to saving his pennies that it appears he's completely forgotten how to spend at all. Or perhaps he's harking back to the day when you could pick up a Thierry Henry for £11 million and is baulking at any of today's prices. I really don't know. But if Arsenal continue to perform poorly on the field - and with injuries and suspensions already throwing their paper-thin squad into sharp relief that could well happen - then the pressure on the dinosaur Wenger and the Arsenal board can only grow ever more intense.

It will be interesting to see how it all pans-out.

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Slow start for me as I'm still really in "summer-mode". The weather is still really nice and I was out most of the day laying block paving in my garden. I also feel inclined to go out and socialise when I get the opportunity. The autumn and winter will still leave plenty of time for full-on trading so there's no need to panic. The season is long and opportunities are everywhere.

I did of course have to trade my Spurs, and was happy to see them get off to a winning start. It's always a bit nerve-wracking playing a newly-promoted team on the first day. Adrenalin can go a long way for the newbies in those circumstance and it's easy to get tripped-up.



Football: £128.80  Total P&L:  £128.80

Football Showing 1 - 13 of 13 markets
Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Crystal Palace v Tottenham : Correct Score  18-Aug-13 13:30  18-Aug-13 15:23 39.13
Football / Swansea v Man Utd : Correct Score 17-Aug-13 17:30  17-Aug-13 19:21 24.76
Football / Swansea v Man Utd : Over/Under 3.5 Goals  17-Aug-13 17:30  17-Aug-13 19:10 12.82
Football / Swansea v Man Utd : Over/Under 2.5 Goals  17-Aug-13 17:30  17-Aug-13 19:00 16.76
Football / Zenit St Petersburg v Anzhi Makhachkala : Match Odds  17-Aug-13 15:15 17-Aug-13 17:05 0.00
Football / QPR v Ipswich : Correct Score 17-Aug-13 15:00  17-Aug-13 16:54 -4.60
Football / QPR v Ipswich : Over/Under 1.5 Goals  17-Aug-13 15:00  17-Aug-13 16:54 -15.00
Football / Nimes v ESTAC Troyes : Match Odds  16-Aug-13 19:00  16-Aug-13 20:48 20.70
Football / Nimes v ESTAC Troyes : Correct Score  16-Aug-13 19:00  16-Aug-13 20:48 -7.00
Football / Chateauroux v Tours : Correct Score 16-Aug-13 19:00  16-Aug-13 20:41 5.70
Football / Chateauroux v Tours : Over/Under 2.5 Goals  16-Aug-13 19:00  16-Aug-13 20:21 13.11
Football / Sochaux v Lyon : Over/Under 2.5 Goals  16-Aug-13 19:30  16-Aug-13 20:14 9.69
Football / Nimes v ESTAC Troyes : Over/Under 2.5 Goals  16-Aug-13 19:00  16-Aug-13 19:46 12.73

Wet Tits

Further to my post about laying favourite teams in the various league's winners markets, there are a couple of other possibilities I'd like to draw your attention to.

There is a good chance that quite a few of you don't like the ante-post betting due to the long time it takes to get a return on your money. This is a fair point. Most people don't have huge betting banks and so tying-up your money over nine months can be annoying.

Okay, so what about these instead? These are Aston Villa's opening three matches:

1. Arsenal v Aston Villa
2. Chelsea v Aston Villa
3. Aston Villa v Liverpool

Now the markets may have taken these matches into consideration already, but a quick lay of Villa to finish in the top ten for the duration of these three matches doesn't seem unreasonable to me.

Also, these are Man City's opening matches:

Man City v Newcastle
Cardiff v Man City
Man City v Hull
Stoke v Man City

With Man Utd having some difficult opening fixtures and Chelsea also meeting Utd in the third match, a back of Man City in the winners market for these opening games also doesn't seem like a bad idea. Quick ante-post bets with a short time to wait until they are settled.

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The rather strange title for this post comes as a result of looking at the stats on my blog. Of the Google searches that resulted in the user finding their way to my blog, two searches for "wet tits" strangely led those people to me. Of all the porn sites that this particular search should have pulled up, I do find that somewhat bizarre.

Afterall, as I'm sure you'll agree, there is so much high-brow philosophical adult discussion in this blog. All I can say is:

Huge erections, hot sex, come in my mouth, anal, double penetration and huge bouncy tits.

There, that should help to bring in a few more visitors from now on :-)
 

Football as an investment

Yee-F*cking-Harr! 

It's back again. Yes, after a long (and I have to say enjoyable) summer, the football season proper kicks off again this weekend. It's good to have it back.

I know there have been plenty of you betting on the summer leagues over the last couple of months, and I trust you've all been doing well and are profitable. However, my question to you is: are you refreshed? Are you raring to go with all guns blazing? 

No? Yeah, me neither.

Actually I am. I was very happy I had a break from betting as I feel very enthusiastic and optimistic about the forthcoming season.

So, what's the post title all about? Well, I was looking through all the winner markets for each individual league and was amazed at how many of them (according to bookies and exchanges) are already apparently sown-up by certain teams. 

Is anyone, for example, going to win La Liga this season apart from Barca or Real Madrid? And how about the Scottish Premier League? Will there be any upset there?

No, I don't think so either. So let's have a scout around these winner markets and look what's what.

So, what have I done here? If a team was a clear favourite to win their league, such as Celtic and PSG, then they appear on their own and their odds are those that you can find on the exchange. If there is not a clear-cut favourite, such as in England, then I have dutched those named teams to derive the odds. Spain does not have any odds listed, because if you dutch Barcelona and Real Madrid you lose money (100.7% of the book! Any debate over the lack of competition in that league can now surely be put to bed).

The point I'm making is that some people like to look around for an nice ISA or a high-rate bank account where they can put their money. Others like to dabble on the stock-market. Here, although there is certainly an element of risk in each league (stocks can go down as well as up), we can easily see the given "interest rate" for each market and perhaps use them in this way. For example, if you are unable to beat a 16% return on your money from more conventional investments, then maybe you should consider dutching Man City, Chelsea and Man Utd this season. No one else has won it for the previous nine seasons.

Of course I'm a hypocrite. I put the idea out there with no real intention to do anything like that myself. Rely on Mancs and Chelski to look after my money? You've got to be kidding.

Personally, I think the most ludicrous of all these odds I've listed is that of Bayern's. I do realise that they won everything last season and that they have strengthened their squad again during the summer, but Dortmund have won the Bundesliga two seasons out of the last three and, at those odds, I feel compelled to oppose them. Dortmund are not as strong as they were, but any blip in Bayern's form and their odds only have one way to go. Odds of 1.22 before a ball has been kicked just seems plain daft.

Actually, I don't think you would go too far wrong opposing every one of these listed above. I've already opposed the top English teams, as mentioned previously HERE, and I will certainly look to lay Bayern too. I also know that some of you have opposed PSG at their very low odds. 

And what about Spain. I remember a couple of seasons ago when Levante went flying off and topped the league for a decent amount of time. We only have to get something like that again and there would be some profit.

All ideas to consider. Good luck for the forthcoming season to all of you.