Confident?

There is a story I'd like to re-tell, concerning an aged Indian Guru. This was a man who had dedicated his entire life to studying "The Self". He had looked inwards and discovered all the secrets within himself, understanding the true meaning of life, tranquility and inner-peace. And during his journey of self-discovery, he had attained an astonishing level of self-control, including mind-over-matter.

One day, The Guru announced that he would be buried alive in a casket for five days and five nights as a demonstration of this powerful mind control. People were rightly astounded by this declaration, for it was calculated that the casket could only hold sufficient air for a man to survive for three or four hours. How could it be possible that this great Guru would manage to stay in there for all this time?

Anyway, the day duly arrived, the hole was dug, the casket prepared and lowered into the ground ready for the great Master. The Guru arrived shortly afterwards with all his acolytes and followers in tow. He wore a simple light cotton robe and appeared to have the air of someone completely at peace with himself, utterly still and in the moment.

Before he started this remarkable demonstration, he spent 30 minutes with his followers, meditating and stilling his mind yet further. The Guru was a powerful presence and everyone there knew they were about to witness something truly amazing - a spectacle beyond normal comprehension and reasoning.

Finally, the great Guru, climbed into the casket, closed his eyes and then the lid was placed over him and the casket nailed shut. The casket was then buried deep into the ground.

The anticipation and trepidation about this courageous and outrageous act were almost palpable, but the five days eventually came and went, with people from all over India coming and gathering in the meantime at, what had almost become, a holy site. On the final day, the workmen arrived, dug and toiled in the heat of the burning sun, before finally lifting the casket out of the ground. The nails were removed and the casket lid slowly and carefully prised-off.

The assembled throng surged forward, eager for a chance to look inside - but what they saw when the casket was opened was astounding, and everyone gasped in wonder and amazement. Could it really be possible? Could they actually believe their own eyes?

Yes. Indeed. The Guru was stone cold dead.

Okay, so what on earth does this story (a story which, if pushed, I may admit lacks a little veracity) actually have to do with betting? Well, as the title states, it's all about confidence - or in this case misplaced confidence. Our foolish Guru friend over-estimated his abilities, and I'm feeling a bit like that myself right now.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not about to bury myself underground for five days (although I realise some of you would be delighted at the prospect of me doing so),  but getting over-confident in your betting can be almost as disastrous... Okay, well not really, but you take my point.

Things are going well for you. Your bets are winning, you can't remember the last time you had a loss. You almost feel invincible as you ride the top of the curve. "How can things possibly go wrong now?" you ask yourself. "I've cracked it. I've beaten this betting malarky".

Yes, well, there's a coffin waiting for you just around the corner. Do you prefer teak or mahogany?

The reality is that there is no "beating it". There are peaks and there are valleys. Some people visit the peaks more often than the valleys and some vice versa - but everyone visits the valleys at some point, as sure as eggs are eggs. Enjoy the peaks while you can, and try and stay there as long as possible, but don't get too cocky - as that's the time the fall from grace will occur.

Personally, I've had good periods in the past and felt invincible. And at those times, I have found myself starting to bet on anything. A few years back I even started using the Exchange Games (yes, sad, I know) as I felt that I just couldn't lose. And these are the times when it's possible to do some serious damage to your bank. Up until that point, you may have worked hard and studiously, earnestly striving to build up a reasonable figure, only for this unreasoning attitude to then start blowing it all over some foolish misplaced confidence.

Do realise, this post is more a note to myself than anything else, so please accept my apology if it sounds preachy and condescending. I don't bet on Exchange Games anymore, but my over-confidence manifests itself in more subtle ways. Just staying in the market a fraction too long compared to how I normally would, opening a position when otherwise I would have been more circumspect, that kind of thing. Nothing really that noticeable to anyone should they be looking in. But for me, I notice the change in behaviour, and it's these subtle differences that mark the thin line between success and failure. When the markets are as efficient as they are, the difference between the two is growing ever more miniscule and so changes in behaviour become ever more magnified.

Now all this is not leading up to me reporting a loss... Well okay actually it is about me reporting a loss - but in all honesty I did start writing this post before I started trading tonight. It just happens that the loss tonight is apposite. I did indeed get involved in the Everton v Man City game at a slightly inappropriate time. There wasn't much in it (there never is), but looking back, I was just that little bit too eager - and that over-eagerness was bred from over-confidence. The result: a loss. So there we have it.

I will, however, try my best to take the lesson that is laid out in front of me from tonight's trading. Generally, things are still going well for me right now, but I know that if I don't stay on the path, then I will damage my bank and make some serious backward steps. The valleys will undoubtedly come (and may already have arrived), but if I can keep my bank in as good a shape as possible, refraining from silly side bets, fun bets or opening positions when the conditions are not perfect, then I will be far better prepared for the valleys, and more equipped to navigate myself out of it.

Happily, I'm working from home all this week and so have been able to trade properly tonight (and will do so tomorrow also). Even though I lost money, it still felt good to run my full unrestricted trading methods. I didn't run my bot tonight (well only briefly), as I still feel a little chastened from last night's fiasco.


Soccer: -£124.41 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  -£124.41 

 

Soccer Showing 1 - 5 of 5 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Soccer / Everton v Man City : Correct Score 31-Jan-12 20:00  31-Jan-12 21:59  -145.52
Soccer / Everton v Man City : Over/Under 2.5 goals 31-Jan-12 20:00  31-Jan-12 21:57  6.12
Soccer / Everton v Man City : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 31-Jan-12 20:00  31-Jan-12 21:57  14.98
Soccer / Ipswich v West Ham : Match Odds 31-Jan-12 19:45  31-Jan-12 21:40  0.25
Soccer / Leeds v Birmingham : Match Odds 31-Jan-12 19:45  31-Jan-12 21:38  -0.24