Wednesday 28 December 2011

Do you like it swift or steady?

Excuse the lame double entendre, but I'm talking about the odds you trade. Do you want your odds always moving or is your preferred trade aided when the odds remain static?

I ask the question because I scalped the Under 2.5 goals market on the Celtic v Rangers game today, and the odds started around the 1.70 mark and within ten minutes were below 1.50. And 1.50 is my personal cut-off point for trading Unders. Below this figure the odds tend to remain static on each tick for too long, increasing the risk considerably in my opinion. The golden rule for all scalpers out there should be, "only scalp moving odds".

This may sound axiomatic, but it's surprising how often this edict is not followed - and not only by others because I also suffer from the same foolishness on occasions. For example, how often have you put an order in, had it taken, then watched your lay just sitting there as the odds either remain static or go up even further away from your money - only for you to say to yourself:

 "Oh, I'll be okay if I just wait. My money will be taken soon enough".

Of course, it's these periods where, inevitably, a goal is scored and you're looking at a rather unpleasant red screen. In such a situation, the correct course of action is either to scratch the trade or trade out for a tick or two loss. But of course, we all know that, don't we?

Tonight, as mentioned, I traded the 2.5 for ten minutes, then moved over to the 1.5 market. Of course this market has a dramatically increased risk, so if you do trade this, it's wise to add an extra degree of caution an any moves you make. Unlike the 2.5 market, there is very little leighway if you're caught in the market. Having said that, it can be very fruitful if worked on properly.

Anyway, I'm digressing again. After the Celtic goal went in on the 53rd minute, I moved across to the Match Odds market and traded this right up to the last four minutes. Rangers were having a few last gasp efforts to equalize, so I decided to finish at that point, and move across to the Correct Scores. All in all, another good night with a satisfactory profit.

Soccer: £66.04 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £66.04 

 

Soccer Showing 1 - 4 of 4 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Soccer / Celtic v Rangers : Over/Under 2.5 goals 28-Dec-11 19:45  28-Dec-11 21:42  9.25
Soccer / Celtic v Rangers : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 28-Dec-11 19:45  28-Dec-11 21:42  15.70
Soccer / Celtic v Rangers : Correct Score 28-Dec-11 19:45  28-Dec-11 21:41  15.17
Soccer / Celtic v Rangers : Match Odds 28-Dec-11 19:45  28-Dec-11 21:39  25.92

2 comments:

  1. Hi there,

    Love your blog, have added it to my roll. If you wish to do the same I'm at http://red-to-green-machine.blogspot.com/

    Kind Regards

    Pete

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi Peter, thanks for reading. Your own blog is very different to mine which, for me, then makes it interesting for me to read.

    I've added yours to my list. Thanks.

    ReplyDelete

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