Mr Big Mouth!

It's amazing how often I end up with my foot in my mouth (well it's large enough so why not?). I really do make myself laugh at times. What a prize tosser.

It was only yesterday that I piously announced that I had learnt many lessons this year and felt that I was now heading towards regular profits... Well, I think you know what comes next, don't you. Yup. That's right. Big loss.

The only small crumb of comfort I can gain from the Liverpool game tonight is that my losses were "controlled". I didn't lose my head at any stage. I tried to offset some of the red with an Under 4.5 back, but when that started going south, I scratched that for nothing. I also managed to shrink my loss on the Correct Score market as originally it was -£185. It's still a bad night though, no two ways about it. Okay, below is the horrible reading. The Southampton game was my bot, but this also was a scratched trade:

Football: -£178.53 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  -£178.53 

 

Football Showing 1 - 5 of 5 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Liverpool v Newcastle : Correct Score 30-Dec-11 19:45  30-Dec-11 21:44  -111.37
Football / Liverpool v Newcastle : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 30-Dec-11 19:45  30-Dec-11 21:41  0.00
Football / Liverpool v Newcastle : Over/Under 2.5 goals 30-Dec-11 19:45  30-Dec-11 21:14  -67.17
Football / Southampton v Bristol City : Half Time 30-Dec-11 19:45  30-Dec-11 20:34  -20.00
Football / Southampton v Bristol City : Half Time Score 30-Dec-11 19:45  30-Dec-11 20:34  20.01

Tomorrow is of course New Year's Eve, but it also happens to be my birthday. What's more I was born at midnight on the 31st, so when you're wishing everyone happy new year, that's when I plopped out. Indeed as they were unable to determine which side of midnight I was born, my mother was given the choice of putting my birth date as December or January.

Actually, tomorrow is also a birthday ending in an zero (dun, dun, dah!). Yes, it's time for another one of those depressing demarcations, an unwanted reminder of the looming mortality (sorry to be so depressing!).

Anyway, we're having a huge party at my house (if you can find out where I live, then you're invited), so I intend to get suitably bladdered and to see in the new year in an alcoholic haze. I also have a ton of fireworks to set off at midnight (I suppose I'd better not get too drunk before then).

Not sure if I'll be able to get on the lunchtime matches tomorrow. If I don't I'll wish you all a Happy New Year now.

Okay, Review Time.

There were no betting opportunities tonight, so instead of boring you with my usual trading details, you'll have to put up with me spouting on any other subjects that may spring to mind.

I suppose as we approach the new year, it's only natural to look back on the year just gone and have a little review. Looking at my P/L for the year, and at the markets where I've prospered and where I've failed, I can see a most definite upward trend overall. For the first time in five years, I can now see myself actually succeeding and increasing my profit year upon year.

The reason? The answer? Well, it's having been burnt sufficiently, having lost sufficiently large sums, having the feeling of pain and indiginity enough times that the lesson has finally, finally started to sink in.

I'm most certainly not saying that I won't continue to suffer losses - as I'm absolutely positive that I will - but I do feel in the last six months or so especially, that my greed levels, my discipline and my emotions have been brought under a new level of control to enable me to start posting some regular profits. This blog has also added a new layer of assistance in helping me to stamp those messages into myself.

So what for next year? Well, obviously I hope to continue the profitable work I've done this year, and perhaps add a few extra touches. Last year, I also attempted some tennis trading, and had some okay(ish) results. Nothing outstanding, but I did make some small profits. As ever though, the lure of football proved too powerful and I largely left the tennis alone.

When the new season starts in January, however, I shall make a bit more of an effort to get involved. I don't have any astounding tennis strategies up my sleeve, so will just be trying to apply the well-known ones in a disciplined manner.

I also intend to let my bot out on a slightly looser rein than I have so far. As many before me have dreamed, I have also thought the betting Nirvana is to set a bot running in the morning, and collect the profits in the evening with no effort at all. The reality is of course different, but even a few addtional pennies would be nice.

Okay, apropos absolutely nothing, below I've listed a few more trading ideas that you may, or may not, like to play around with. Once again, I make no report on whether these are profitable or a complete waste of time - that's up to you to decide. However I hope they are helpful in one way or another. Food for thought, and all that:

• If strong team at home and drawing at 70 minutes, dutch home win and current correct score.
• Back Home/Away on the HT/FT market and lay 1-2. If game goes to 1-1 or 1-2, then lay 1-3 also.
• Instead of laying 0-2, have you tried a back of Under 1.5 goals, back Over 2.5 goals, Back 1-0 and 2-0.
• Lay Half-time 0-0 and Back Draw/Draw on the HT/FT maket. If a goal is scored in the 1st half, then you've won. If there's no goal in the first-half, then Lay full-time 0-0 at half-time or lay the draw.
• Back home team to win 1-0 at half-time, and lay home team to win first-half.
• When home team scores 1st goal after 75 mins, lay them and back current score and next home win score.
• Back 5 goals or more and Lay 4 goals or more

Do you like it swift or steady?

Excuse the lame double entendre, but I'm talking about the odds you trade. Do you want your odds always moving or is your preferred trade aided when the odds remain static?

I ask the question because I scalped the Under 2.5 goals market on the Celtic v Rangers game today, and the odds started around the 1.70 mark and within ten minutes were below 1.50. And 1.50 is my personal cut-off point for trading Unders. Below this figure the odds tend to remain static on each tick for too long, increasing the risk considerably in my opinion. The golden rule for all scalpers out there should be, "only scalp moving odds".

This may sound axiomatic, but it's surprising how often this edict is not followed - and not only by others because I also suffer from the same foolishness on occasions. For example, how often have you put an order in, had it taken, then watched your lay just sitting there as the odds either remain static or go up even further away from your money - only for you to say to yourself:

 "Oh, I'll be okay if I just wait. My money will be taken soon enough".

Of course, it's these periods where, inevitably, a goal is scored and you're looking at a rather unpleasant red screen. In such a situation, the correct course of action is either to scratch the trade or trade out for a tick or two loss. But of course, we all know that, don't we?

Tonight, as mentioned, I traded the 2.5 for ten minutes, then moved over to the 1.5 market. Of course this market has a dramatically increased risk, so if you do trade this, it's wise to add an extra degree of caution an any moves you make. Unlike the 2.5 market, there is very little leighway if you're caught in the market. Having said that, it can be very fruitful if worked on properly.

Anyway, I'm digressing again. After the Celtic goal went in on the 53rd minute, I moved across to the Match Odds market and traded this right up to the last four minutes. Rangers were having a few last gasp efforts to equalize, so I decided to finish at that point, and move across to the Correct Scores. All in all, another good night with a satisfactory profit.

Soccer: £66.04 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £66.04 

 

Soccer Showing 1 - 4 of 4 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Soccer / Celtic v Rangers : Over/Under 2.5 goals 28-Dec-11 19:45  28-Dec-11 21:42  9.25
Soccer / Celtic v Rangers : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 28-Dec-11 19:45  28-Dec-11 21:42  15.70
Soccer / Celtic v Rangers : Correct Score 28-Dec-11 19:45  28-Dec-11 21:41  15.17
Soccer / Celtic v Rangers : Match Odds 28-Dec-11 19:45  28-Dec-11 21:39  25.92

Worse Than I Imagined

I have been trudging around Lakeside shopping centre today, which is a vile experience at the best of times, but today was truly awful with frenzy of sales' seekers. The sweat, the bad breath, the rude behaviour and thoughtless jostling...

And all this was before I'd even left the house :-)

In all seriousness though, for your own sanity, stay away from the Christmas/New Years sales. I kept catching the eye of other husbands who had also lost the will to live. And it's not gratifying to see their faces wreathed in hopeless dispair, their shoulders slumped in resigned resentment.

My Bot ran only the Arsenal game while I was out, and again resulted in a loss, this time for £25. I'm disappointed with this but will persevere as I certainly don't have a representative sample yet. After grabbing a quick bite to eat after getting home (yes, it's still Turkey), I sat down to enjoy my Spurs playing at Norwich. They're playing some beautiful football at the moment.

With a high goal expectation, I tend to add an additional dose of caution when scalping the goals markets, but after a lively opening, the game settled down and I managed to trickle my way up to £28 on the 2.5 goals. Ten minutes before half-time and all the way up to Spurs goal in the 55th minutes, I moved across to the 1.5 goals and also made £17 there.

After the goal, I moved onto the Match Odds market (my new flavour of the month) and found myself on the right side of the market when the second goal went in. At that point I could have left my bet in-play but, even though Spurs were in total control by that point, I decided to green-up at 1.02. This gave me another £28.

Moving from this (now effectively close) market, I meandered over to the Correct Scores, which gave me a very easy £40. This, combined with Spurs regal advance to a further three points, meant an extremely satisfactory night altogether.

It almost made up for the shopping!

Football: £90.95 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £90.95 

 

Football Showing 1 - 6 of 6 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Norwich v Tottenham : Correct Score 27-Dec-11 19:30  27-Dec-11 21:27  40.94
Football / Norwich v Tottenham : Over/Under 2.5 goals 27-Dec-11 19:30  27-Dec-11 21:26  28.63
Football / Norwich v Tottenham : Match Odds 27-Dec-11 19:30  27-Dec-11 21:24  29.55
Football / Norwich v Tottenham : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 27-Dec-11 19:30  27-Dec-11 20:57  17.63
Football / Arsenal v Wolves : Half Time 27-Dec-11 15:00  27-Dec-11 15:48  -20.00
Football / Arsenal v Wolves : Half Time Score 27-Dec-11 15:00  27-Dec-11 15:48  -5.80

Tools Of The Trade

Well, these were mine today. Booze, booze and after that a little bit more booze. Happily, I can satisfactorily blame Christmas for my erratic performance and drunken trading today. With the aid of alcoholic lubrication, I've felt very relaxed and at ease all day. Luckily, I didn't get forced out for sales shopping today - the dubious "pleasure" of that experience awaits me tomorrow as we head for the Lakeside shopping centre then for the real torture.

For the one o'clock and three o'clock games, I sent my little Bot running again on some standard trades (these are the half-time bets that you can see in my P/L). This lost me £31 on this occasion, but I still have hopes for this. I can't seem to find the time or patience to test this fully and consistently, and until I do then I won't have an answer on whether it's a profitable method that I'm trialling.

Other than that, On the Birmingham v West Hame game, I was manually toying around with a little strategy that I had in running around in my head and, he said, blaming the drink, I thought I was using £2.00 stakes... but nah. The plonker and old fart with a walnut brain and a large glass of port in his hand was actually messing around with £100 stakes and the early goal immediately cost me that stake. Oh dear, oh dear.

Maybe it's the drink, but I didn't feel particularly aggrieved or upset by this. Good will to all men and a heavy-duty beer coat helped towards that. Instead, I pushed my tipple to one side (a near impossible task to achieve on Boxing Day, but don't hero-worship me), decided to leave the Correct Score market alone for the moment, and started working on the game in earnest.

Based on the goal expectation for this game, I backed Under 4.5 goals with the intention of laying it off at half-time. This went according to plan and I made £14 back there. I also pushed quite heavily on the 2.5 goals market (probably more heavily than I would have done if sober) and pulled back £74 there also. Towards the end of the game, I returned to the Correct Score market and my £100 loss. I chipped away at this until the end of the game, leaving only a £26 loss on that market.

Oooh, profit. Warm glow. Perhaps time for another large glass of Port? Actually, I had a coffee instead and looked towards the Stoke game on at 7:45pm. Well, we can only let the ill-discipline go so far.

I ate some leftovers during the first part of the Stoke game, but decided to amble onto the 1.5 market fifteen minutes before half-time. This proved fruitful, so I continued in this market for a further ten minutes in the second half, before moving onto the Correct Score market. This went without further drama, allowing me to finish the day with a decent total.

Football: £77.52 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £77.52 

 

Football Showing 1 - 15 of 15 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Stoke v Aston Villa : Correct Score 26-Dec-11 19:45  26-Dec-11 21:41  29.61
Football / Stoke v Aston Villa : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 26-Dec-11 19:45  26-Dec-11 21:39  18.99
Football / Birmingham v West Ham : Correct Score 26-Dec-11 17:30  26-Dec-11 19:32  -26.59
Football / Birmingham v West Ham : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 26-Dec-11 17:30  26-Dec-11 19:26  13.46
Football / Birmingham v West Ham : Over/Under 2.5 goals 26-Dec-11 17:30  26-Dec-11 19:26  73.65
Football / Leicester v Ipswich : Half Time Score 26-Dec-11 15:00  26-Dec-11 15:52  -4.00
Football / Leicester v Ipswich : Half Time 26-Dec-11 15:00  26-Dec-11 15:52  -10.00
Football / Reading v Brighton : Half Time 26-Dec-11 15:00  26-Dec-11 15:49  14.46
Football / Reading v Brighton : Half Time Score 26-Dec-11 15:00  26-Dec-11 15:49  -8.20
Football / Liverpool v Blackburn : Half Time Score 26-Dec-11 15:00  26-Dec-11 15:48  -6.40
Football / Liverpool v Blackburn : Half Time 26-Dec-11 15:00  26-Dec-11 15:48  -20.00
Football / Man Utd v Wigan : Half Time Score 26-Dec-11 15:00  26-Dec-11 15:48  -5.39
Football / Man Utd v Wigan : Half Time 26-Dec-11 15:00  26-Dec-11 15:48  9.52
Football / Chelsea v Fulham : Half Time Score 26-Dec-11 13:00  26-Dec-11 13:48  32.01
Football / Chelsea v Fulham : Half Time 26-Dec-11 13:00  26-Dec-11 13:47  -33.60


As mentioned, tomorrow sees a hellish day of shopping, but I should be back (I'd bloody well better be) in time for the Norwich v Spurs game in the evening. Hopefully, I'll have a little entry after that game.

Helpful Resources

Good morning. We're one hour into Christmas Eve, I'm vaguely pissed but still compos mentis. Before I toddle off to bed, I thought I'd provide a few quick links of sites that I find very helpful when I'm trading. Doubtless, you are all familiar with them also, but I'll pop them up nonetheless in case:

• http://www.dectech.org/football/index.php - provides an excellent and accurate distribution of goal outcomes for upcoming English matches.
• http://www.soccerway.com/ - great resource for checking past scores, in addition to listing all upcoming fixtures for all leagues.
• http://www.futbol24.com/ - Much like soccerway. Also excellent.
• http://www.football-italia.net/ - detailed reviews of Serie A matches.
• http://www.ligue1.com/ - detailed reviews of Lique One matches.
• http://www.bundesliga.de/en/ - detailed reviews of Bundesliga matches.
• http://www.theoffside.com/ - reviews and blogs of other teams in other European countries.
• http://www.soccerbythenumbers.com/ - provides some interesting stats and perspectives from a mathematical perspective.
• http://www.physioroom.com/affiliate/setanta/epl_injury_table.php - who's injured in the Premier League.
• http://betting.betfair.com/ - Betfair's reviews (good as long as you don't follow any of Lee Dixon's tips!).

I hope at least some of these are helpful along the way.

So, I'll be busy tomorrow (I mean today) and of course on Christmas day. There's a full fixture list on Boxing Day, but I'm not sure I will be "allowed" to indulge in any of that, we'll have to wait and see. The sad reality is that I'll probably be following my wife around some shops somewhere, looking completely miserable!

Have a good Christmas.

What Matters Most?

... Your favourite team winning or making money on the match? Well, for me, that's a bit difficult to answer. Of course it would be nice to have both, but in the past Spurs have won the game and I've come away happy, even though I lost money on that game (as long as it's not too much money, you understand :-) ).

The Spurs v Chelsea game tonight was exciting, and the way Spurs started I thought they were going to completely overrun Chelsea, but after Spurs scored (leaving me in the red), they sat back and Chelsea worked their way back into the game - especially after Assou-Ekotto went into "sleep mode" and allowed Sturridge to venture into the box unimpeded.

When the second goal went I was looking at a straight £200 loss should another goal go in. I took the view, however, that despite the fast-nature of the game, there wouldn't be a surfeit of goals, so at that point I backed Under 4.5 goals. This would offset any loss I had on the 2.5 goals market, and in the meantime, I could slowly reduce my red on the 2.5 to even-up my position.

Of course the game ended with less that 2.5 goals, but I still show a loss on that market as I wasn't "betting" on it, I was trading it. With the chance of a full loss, I traded-out with a £110 loss at half-time and then steadily reduced this with disciplined scalps all through the second-half. I managed this to the extent that with my win on the 4.5 market, I ended the night in profit.

This is an important point. When things are going against you, do look around (impartially) to see if there is anything practical that can be done to reduce losses or correct your situation. The 4.5 goals bet is not always going to be on. You will have to assess each game on it's merits to determine whether this avenue of escape is a practical one or not. Often times it won't be, and you will have to look at other routes. Other times, of course, the only sensible thing is to take the loss on the chin and come back another day.

Football: £40.65 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £40.65 

 

Football Showing 1 - 2 of 2 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Tottenham v Chelsea : Over/Under 2.5 goals 22-Dec-11 20:00  22-Dec-11 22:00  -35.16
Football / Tottenham v Chelsea : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 22-Dec-11 20:00  22-Dec-11 22:00  75.81

Incompetent Managers and Random Strategies

Steve Kean. What on earth possesses a man to endure such vilification and hatred? I realise this is his first shot at big-time management and that he doesn’t want to walk away from it because he knows he’ll never get another shot… but really. For his own dignity and, if he cares anything at all about the club that he’s helping to push down into the Championship, he really should go. His record shows him to be quite incompetent, as is the owners'.

The owners, of course, hold the large measure of responsibility for the appalling decline at Blackburn Rovers, but sitting in India, they are far removed from the hatred being directed towards them. Even if/when Kean goes, I can’t see an easy solution for the club.

Anyway, as promised, below is a list of possible trades/strategies. I’m not saying that any of them are successful (and I’m not saying that they are not either), but that would be for you to find out. At the very least some of these may trigger some ideas in your head, or lead you to other strategies devised by yourself. Good luck:

• For matches where the goal expectation is low, dutch 0-0, 1-0, and 0-1 for the first fifteen minutes. These will all shorten over that time, allowing a profit to be made.
• For matches where the goal expectation is high, dutch, 1-1, 2-1 and 1-2. After 30 minutes, also back 2-2. Green-up when appropriate.
• The most common number of goals scored in a game is 2.x, so what about trading 1-1? The odds don’t move for evenly-matched teams for the first thirty minutes or so.
• Lay 0-0 at 20 minutes. If a goal is scored then it’s a win. If no goal is scored at 70 minutes, trade-out for a loss.
• If 0-0 at half-time, lay 0-1. If 0-0 at 80 minutes, trade-out
• If 0-0 @ HT, dutch  0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1 ( If you get total odds of 1.5 or better).
• If no goal after 30 minutes, lay the draw. Green-up after first goal.
• If anyone is named as a substitute, lay them as first goalscorer.
• For weak away teams, Lay them and green-up after five minutes. If weak team score, wait until home team equalise.
• Check average first goal scoring time for all teams. If average is late, lay 0-10 minutes first goal.
• Most games end in H/H/, D/D or D/H. Why not dutch these?
• Back FT 1-0 and lay HT 1-0.
• For strong teams, back HT 0-0 and HT home win.
• If home team winning at HT by one goal, lay them. (Odds must be below 2.00).
• Back Over 2.5 goals if no goals after 20 minutes. Trade-out on first goal.
• If a goal is scored in the first 10 minutes of a game, lay > 3.5 goals. Trade-out after ten minutes.
• If >2.5 is greater than 2.1, then back 0-0 and 1-1 and Lay The Draw.
• For weak home teams, Back H/H and Lay HT home. If winning at HT, lay home for small loss.

 These are just a few that might provide you with some food for thought. There are of course plenty more. Perhaps when I'm away next time in the new year, I'll post up some more.

Back To Slow And Steady

No dramas this evening, which is never a bad thing.

Still some Bundesliga games left before the Christmas break, so I started off with that for half-an-hour, moved onto the Palace v Birmingham game, whilst still watching the St Pauli game on Betfair Video. When St Pauli scored, I quickly moved back to that game as it's always a good time to catch some extra ticks, and from there stayed on that game until the end. Then I moved back to the Palace game.

All good steady profits. The Match Odds didn't look right for me today, so I concentrated on the Correct Scores instead.

Back to work tomorrow morning, staying in my hotel for a couple of nights. I should be back on Thursday before the Spurs v Chelsea game.

If I get time tomorrow or Wednesday, I'll post-up some trading ideas that you may want to consider. I realise that I did promise this before, but I'll definitely try and do so this time.

Football: £87.51 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £87.51 

 

Football Showing 1 - 4 of 4 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / C Palace v Birmingham : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 19-Dec-11 19:45  19-Dec-11 21:42  14.98
Football / C Palace v Birmingham : Correct Score 19-Dec-11 19:45  19-Dec-11 21:42  30.93
Football / St Pauli v Eintracht Frankfurt : Correct Score 19-Dec-11 19:15  19-Dec-11 21:14  20.49
Football / St Pauli v Eintracht Frankfurt : Over/Under 2.5 goals 19-Dec-11 19:15  19-Dec-11 21:13  21.11

Invincible... Erm, I Don't Think So!

With things having been going so well recently, including yesterday's profit which I didn't even earn, I have definitely become a little too cocky recently...

And what happens in betting/trading when we grow complacent? That's right. We get burnt! And trading is absolutely guaranteed to provide a salutory lesson in timely fashion. Pride before a fall, and all that.

Feeling on top of the world from yesterday, I began "strutting my stuff" today on the QPR v Man Utd game. This felt quite easy and I managed to run-up a nice total without too much effort, making over £60. With three live games on the box, I was looking forward to a good total and, in between small bouts of DIY, I then moved onto the Aston Villa v Liverpool.

Here's where the toppling-off my self-constructed pedastal came along. Whilst lazily trading the Villa game, I also started trading the match odds on the Bundesliga 2 game against H Rostock and Dresden. Rostock had a one goal lead but then had a man sent-off. At this point I had collected £10 in green, and any sensible person would have stopped there as Dresden were a man up and were attacking at any opportunity. But I'm not a sensible person, and got greedy thinking I could squeeze a few extra ticks out of the game before stopping.

Bang, Dresden score with virtually the last kick of the game and I lose £194.

Shaking my head in disbelief, I looked back at the Villa/Liverpool game, where I had left an £8 green, only to see that I had inadvertently left £200 up which had been taken just before Liverpool scored their second goal. Oh God, what was going on? In the space of ten seconds, I was about £350 down.

Feeling gutted, I placed a bet to level-up for zero on the market, not really expecting it ever to get matched, and then carried-on with my DIY. At this point, I kept thinking how all my fortunate profit from yesterday was completely wiped-out, but there was nothing I could do.

About half-way through the second-half of the Villa game, I looked back at my screen and saw, to my surprise, that no further goals had been scored and that my bet had been matched. Great, I had managed to avoid a double loss. And from that point I knew that I could behave sensibly and try and minimize my loss from the Rostock game. I moved the Villa game into profit, grabbing £46 there, and then I did very well on the Man City game too. At the end of the City game, I was only £1.60 in the red. Ten minutes after the City game finished, I also grabbed £24 on the Mgladbach v Mainz game in the last five minutes of the game.

This was all fantastic, but also infuriating, because if I hadn't touched the Rostock game, I would have hit over £200 profit for the second day in a row. As it turned out, however, I have to be thankful that I have managed to have a profitable day, albeit tiny compared to how it should have been.

Soccer: £22.60 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £22.60 

 

Soccer Showing 1 - 10 of 10 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Soccer / Mgladbach v Mainz : Correct Score 18-Dec-11 16:30  18-Dec-11 18:23  24.32
Soccer / Man City v Arsenal : Correct Score 18-Dec-11 16:10  18-Dec-11 18:05  28.03
Soccer / Man City v Arsenal : Over/Under 2.5 goals 18-Dec-11 16:10  18-Dec-11 18:04  29.04
Soccer / Man City v Arsenal : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 18-Dec-11 16:10  18-Dec-11 18:04  12.72
Soccer / Man City v Arsenal : Match Odds 18-Dec-11 16:10  18-Dec-11 18:02  10.86
Soccer / Aston Villa v Liverpool : Over/Under 2.5 goals 18-Dec-11 14:05  18-Dec-11 15:58  46.94
Soccer / H Rostock v Dynamo Dresden : Match Odds 18-Dec-11 12:30  18-Dec-11 14:21  -194.92
Soccer / QPR v Man Utd : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 18-Dec-11 12:00  18-Dec-11 13:52  1.21
Soccer / QPR v Man Utd : Over/Under 2.5 goals 18-Dec-11 12:00  18-Dec-11 13:52  23.72
Soccer / QPR v Man Utd : Correct Score 18-Dec-11 12:00  18-Dec-11 13:52  40.68

Clueless Profits!

Have been out all day, seeing my mum and my Niece, who came down from London where she is at university, before flying off back home to Los Angeles for Christmas and the New Year.

This meant that I couldn't do any of my normal trading today, so instead, I set-off my little Bot with small stakes on the desktop PC, just to try some things out. Most of these automated trades, however, didn't work for one reason or the other, or half of the triggers didn't fire, so when I came in this evening, with fifteen minutes of the Wigan/Chelsea game remaining, I looked at my P/L and it showed me at £7.00 down. No dramas there but vaguely disappointing.

However, I thought I could grab something on the last few bits of the Wigan/Chelsea game, so I quickly fired-up BetAngel on my laptop and started plugging away on the Match Odds. I noticed some weird behaviour on my API, which I hadn't experienced before - namely my £200 disappearing when I had no "fill-or-kill" set (I never have this set on live games anyway), but I just frowned and continued on my way.

Chelsea were looking a bit wobbly towards the end of the game, so I quickly closed-out my trading on the Match Odds, saw myself green-up for £3 or so, and then moved over to the Correct Score market.

The Correct Scores proved better for me, and I was able to grab £25 before the end of the game.
A couple of minutes before the match finished, however, I happened to look back at the Match Odds market again. I saw £25 red on Chelsea and over £180 green on Wigan and the Draw! Stunned, I quickly greened this up.

Please, do not ask me what happened as I seriously haven't got the first clue to explain this. The only thing I can think of is that my Bot was still running on my desktop, and it was indeed set to trade the Match Odds on the Wigan/Chelsea game. However, I was only trading on the Bot with £5 stakes, so I still don't see how this was the cause.

Looking at the picture I have attached above, you can see just over £20 matched at 11, timed at 19:23 - presumably this when Wigan equalised. This must have meant that I had a lay bet on Chelsea that I didn't know about. But how did this happen when I saw with my own eyes this market greened-up?

I don't really understand any of this, but am certainly happy with it. I cannot, unfortunately, take any credit whatsoever for today's profit as I don't have the first clue how it all happened!

Soccer: £193.07 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £193.07 

 

Soccer Showing 1 - 7 of 7 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Soccer / Wigan v Chelsea : Correct Score 17-Dec-11 17:30  17-Dec-11 19:30  25.86
Soccer / Wigan v Chelsea : Match Odds 17-Dec-11 17:30  17-Dec-11 19:26  174.28
Soccer / Cardiff v Middlesbrough : Match Odds 17-Dec-11 15:00  17-Dec-11 17:01  1.06
Soccer / Bristol City v Nottm Forest : Match Odds 17-Dec-11 15:00  17-Dec-11 16:59  -10.75
Soccer / Hull v Millwall : Match Odds 17-Dec-11 15:00  17-Dec-11 16:55  1.72
Soccer / Blackburn v West Brom : Correct Score 17-Dec-11 15:00  17-Dec-11 16:52  0.12
Soccer / Blackburn v West Brom : Match Odds 17-Dec-11 15:00  17-Dec-11 16:51  0.78

What's Your Trade?

We're all creatures of habit and, particularly in betting, we'll often stick with what works for us or that provides the richest pickings (and why shouldn't we?). Looking at my P/L each day I post them, you'll see all the usual suspects - the Over/Unders market (moving from one to the other as each one closes or becomes untenable), Correct Scores and the occasional Match Odds.

So what are your favourite markets and why? How are these markets profitable for you? Which techniques favour which markets? Presumably you've asked yourselves these questions. And have you considered other markets? If not, why not?

With regards to the Match Odds market, this is only something I've only started trading in the last couple of months, but I'm beginning to love it. If the Match Odds is not suitable for a particular match then I'll go back to my Correct Score market, but the Match Odds has some distinct advantages which I'm starting to enjoy.

First off, there is often much greater liquidity, even on some of the smaller games in lesser leagues. The fluctuation both up and down means that it feels slightly easier to grab a tick here and there; and also (and perhaps more importantly) there is a chance of being on the correct side of the book when a goal is scored, which can provide a massive upside. Of course, like the Correct Score market, it's also quite possible to be caught on the wrong side of the book. The Correct Score market ONLY has the downside (the way I play it, anyway).

I'm waffling here, but I suppose I'm saying that we shouldn't restrict ourselves to one or two markets, just because "that's the way we've always done it". The reality is that, if it's in-play, then ANY market can be successfully traded and/or scalped. The ones you've seen me work on are of course the most popular, but perhaps some of the lesser markets should be looked at more carefully, as opportunities most definitely exist there.

Nice evenings trading tonight - including some nice Match Odds trading (see above). The Bundesliga stops now until late January, so I'll have to see if there's anything else I can work on for Fridays until then.

Soccer: £76.80 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £76.80 

 

Soccer Showing 1 - 5 of 5 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Soccer / B Munich v FC Koln : Correct Score 16-Dec-11 19:30  16-Dec-11 21:22  23.58
Soccer / B Munich v FC Koln : Over/Under 2.5 goals 16-Dec-11 19:30  16-Dec-11 21:17  24.52
Soccer / B Munich v FC Koln : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 16-Dec-11 19:30  16-Dec-11 20:52  1.26
Soccer / Erzgebirge v Ingolstadt : Match Odds 16-Dec-11 17:00  16-Dec-11 18:52  4.01
Soccer / Fortuna Dusseldorf v Paderborn : Match Odds 16-Dec-11 17:00  16-Dec-11 18:52  23.43

Due to family functions, I may not be able to do any trading at all tomorrow. There may be a very small chance of getting on the evening game between Wigan and Chelsea, or MK Dons and Preston, but we'll have to wait and see. If I can't get on anything, I may just set my little Bot going again tomorrow and see what it produces. Watch this space!

Naughty Boy

Had a hangover all day today from the party the day before. Got home from work this evening, and saw that Spurs were 0-3 up at half-time. Looking at the Correct Scores odds, Any Unquoted was just shy of 1.30. This seemed like value to me, so I threw enough on to give me £30 profit.

This, I have to say, goes against my modus operandi and has absolutely nothing to do with being a trader. It's a straight bet, but seemed too good to resist.

Looking at the scoreline a couple of minutes from the end of the game, I was disheartened to see that the score hadn't changed. I think news of the scoreline on the Rubin Kazan game must have filtered through, and so obviously Spurs motivation must have evaporated.

If I'm brutally honest with myself, This important aspect was something I never really considered, and I should have been rightly punished for not doing so. As luck would have it, however, Kane scored for Spurs in the last minute and so this bet was won. But, as the title of this entry suggests, I consider myself a bit naughty for entering into this bet in the first place. (Of course, the title also gives me an excuse to put-up a picture of a cute arse).

Beyond this, I had applied some casual effort on the Birmingham v Maribor game. Grabbed some peanuts on the 2.5 market, and over £20 on the match odds and Correct Score markets.

Both Spurs and Birmingham knocked-out of the competition tonight. I don't think either team will be distraught however.

Football: £55.86 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £55.86 

 

Football Showing 1 - 4 of 4 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Birmingham v NK Maribor : Correct Score 15-Dec-11 20:05  15-Dec-11 22:01  12.48
Football / Birmingham v NK Maribor : Over/Under 2.5 goals 15-Dec-11 20:05  15-Dec-11 22:00  3.20
Football / Birmingham v NK Maribor : Match Odds 15-Dec-11 20:05  15-Dec-11 21:59  9.94
Football / Shamrock Rovers v Tottenham : Correct Score 15-Dec-11 18:00  15-Dec-11 19:48  30.24

F*ck, Sh*t , P*ss, W*nk

Heartily pissed-off with myself this evening. Started off in low-key fashion, but this felt good and very well-controlled. Then I decided to shag this all up with plain old-fashioned bad decision-making.

Backed 0-0 just before KO on the Koln v Mainz game for £100 at 14.5, and then layed the same amount at 14, to leave £50 profit on the 0-0 and no liability on the other scores. As this profit steadily increased as the game progressed, I started a little bit of scalping on the Over/Under 1.5 and 2.5 markets in my usual way. When the profit on the Correct Scores reached over a tenner, I took that - and so was already £20 up with very little effort.

In the second-half of the game, I continued by scalping the Correct Scores market, and moved my £10 profit up to £35, but was then caught-out with a quick goal which wiped-out all my profit on that, and I ended up with just £2.30 profit.

This wasn't too upsetting, the goal occurred very quickly and, on those occasions, I just say to myself that these things happen and "c'est la vie".

However, I then moved onto the St. Johnstone v Aberdeen game, which was an absolutely dire game, truly reflecting the shitty quality of Scottish football (apologies to any Scots looking in!). Only managed a couple of quid on the Over/Unders market before giving it up as the liquidity wasn't good.

And here's where the bad decision-making comes in. Instead of just leaving the night there with over £20 profit, I decided to have a go at the Correct Score market here also. This was plain stupid as the liquidity was very poor, prices were sticking and this should have been ringing loud alarm bells in my head. But with all that cotton-wool where my brain should have been, I didn't hear the alarm. Whilst about £18 up, I got caught by the late goal scored by St. Johnstone and that was my profit gone for the night.

What's made this worse for me was that at half-time in the Inter Milan game, I was convinced there was going to be a goal and intended to lay the 0-0 scoreline. However, I got distracted and forgot to do so, and so lost a potential £50 profit there too

In conclusion, not the best of nights for me, but the only saving grace is that the loss is not too large.

Soccer: -£25.13 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  -£25.13 

 

Soccer Showing 1 - 5 of 5 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Soccer / St Johnstone v Aberdeen : Correct Score 13-Dec-11 19:45  13-Dec-11 21:39  -41.44
Soccer / St Johnstone v Aberdeen : Over/Under 2.5 goals 13-Dec-11 19:45  13-Dec-11 21:35  2.39
Soccer / FC Koln v Mainz : Correct Score 13-Dec-11 19:30  13-Dec-11 21:21  2.30
Soccer / FC Koln v Mainz : Over/Under 2.5 goals 13-Dec-11 19:30  13-Dec-11 21:19  8.69
Soccer / FC Koln v Mainz : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 13-Dec-11 19:30  13-Dec-11 21:12  2.93

Note, I will not be betting tomorrow night as I have a Christmas party to attend. It's my intention to get royally rat-arsed, so I might pop-up again on Thursday evening for some Europa League action.

TTFN.

OMG

The absolute miss of the century tonight in the game between Frankurt and Gruether Furth. The Furth striker Edgar Prib flicked the ball neatly over Oka Nikolov, had a completely open goal, was about six feet from the goal line, struck the ball... and hit the post. It really has to be seen to be believed.

If you can find it on Youtube, I suggest you have a look, because it is stunning in it's awfulness.

Had the goal gone in (and I still cannot fathom how it didn't. Actually the ball did go in the net immediately after the miss but was ruled offside), then I would have had a loss on this game. As it didn't, I recorded a much relieved profit.

Had an up-and-down game with the Chelsea v Man City match also. Got caught in a negative position after the second goal, but the red wasn't too large and I managed to chip away at it until the third went in, finishing that market with a small profit.

This last point is important, because it's often the case that you have to work just as hard, if not harder to revert or shrink a negative position than you do to make money. Look below at the details for the Chelsea game 2.5 market:

Soccer > Chelsea v Man City : Over/Under 2.5 goals Showing 1 - 2 of 2 Selections

Selection Odds Stake(£) Bid type Placed Profit/loss(£)
Under 2.5 Goals * 3.24 6,679.97 Back   -6,679.97
Under 2.5 Goals * 3.24 6,688.08 Lay   6,688.08
*Average odds: On  Off  Back subtotal: -6,679.97
Lay subtotal: 6,688.08

Here you can see that I turned over nearly £6,700 pounds on that market alone, and came away with just £7.71 profit. This indeed was hard work, but it pays dividends not to give-up or to start becoming wild in your betting.

All in all, with the excellent reversion, quite a good night. Happy days.

Soccer: £66.27 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £66.27 

 

Soccer Showing 1 - 5 of 5 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Soccer / Chelsea v Man City : Correct Score 12-Dec-11 20:00  12-Dec-11 21:55  24.77
Soccer / Chelsea v Man City : Over/Under 2.5 goals 12-Dec-11 20:00  12-Dec-11 21:41  7.71
Soccer / Eintracht Frankfurt v G Furth : Over/Under 2.5 goals 12-Dec-11 19:15  12-Dec-11 21:06  6.16
Soccer / Eintracht Frankfurt v G Furth : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 12-Dec-11 19:15  12-Dec-11 21:06  0.84
Soccer / Eintracht Frankfurt v G Furth : Correct Score 12-Dec-11 19:15  12-Dec-11 21:04  26.79

Incrementally Risky

Did okay today, with a healthy-looking P/L, but not particularly happy with myself when I was scalping the Stoke v Spurs game in the last fifteen minutes.

Had just finished on the Over 3.5 market and was setting-up the Correct Score market when there was a three minute power cut in my whole street. Very unusual, but luckily I had no open position in the game, as when the power came back on and I got the TV back on, I saw that Spurs had scored a goal from a penalty.

This was okay, but during the remaining period, the play was incredibly open, and either side could have scored a goal or two, with some glorious chances missed, along with a couple of valid penalty shouts. It was during this period that, on looking back, I realised that I got too heavily involved. When scalping, it is imperative to pick and choose your moments, and not just dive in willy-nilly. On reflection, I have to admit that I was dipping in and out of the market far too often, and am probably lucky that I didn't suffer a loss of some kind.

Not that I'm complaining, but it's important to try and learn something from each and every trading experience, if possible. Today, then, is effectively a note to myself to be a little more circumspect in future.

Football: £120.94 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £120.94 

 

Football Showing 1 - 7 of 7 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Stoke v Tottenham : Correct Score 11-Dec-11 16:00  11-Dec-11 17:59  27.70
Football / Stoke v Tottenham : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 11-Dec-11 16:00  11-Dec-11 17:57  16.87
Football / Stoke v Tottenham : Over/Under 2.5 goals 11-Dec-11 16:00  11-Dec-11 17:24  17.73
Football / Sunderland v Blackburn : Correct Score 11-Dec-11 13:30  11-Dec-11 15:32  37.73
Football / Sunderland v Blackburn : Over/Under 2.5 goals 11-Dec-11 13:30  11-Dec-11 15:22  0.68
Football / Aachen v Erzgebirge : Over/Under 2.5 goals 11-Dec-11 12:30  11-Dec-11 14:19  14.87
Football / Aachen v Erzgebirge : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 11-Dec-11 12:30  11-Dec-11 13:51  5.36

What You Sow

... You indeed reap. What goes around comes around. And any other suitable phrases like this that can accurately describe having the smug smile on my face rapidly wiped off.

A couple of entries ago, I gleefully told you how I fished for a price and caught an even bigger one (even though the amount matched was very small). Well, yesterday the favour was returned.

I was watching the Barnsley v Ipswich match (an amazing goalfest of a game), moving from one overs market to the next in my normal fashion. When the Over 5.5 market was closed (for me anyway), I opened up the Over 6.5 goals market and was amazed to see amounts at 1.55, when I was expecting to see amounts around the 1.40 area. Well, of course I jumped right in with both feet. I threw £200 down on that... and immediately saw my screen turn red.

What the hell was going on? Then I realised, I was looking the screen, expecting the odds to be where they were BEFORE the last goal was just scored. The actual odds were actually trading around the 2.20 area.

"Wanker!", I shouted at myself. My proft for the day (not large in the first place) had vanished in the blink of an eye. Calming myself, I steadily ate away at this red, until yet another goal went in, but such was the steady approach that I took, that I had managed to reduce over £80 red down to £33 red before the goal was scored. This was okay, but I still felt sore at myself for falling for the exact same trick that I happily play on others. Serves me right, I suppose.

As for the rest of the day, well, I must have been caught in a negative position at least four times yesterday, and as you can see there are three losses on my sheet. So, I must be grateful for coming out with the small profit that I have. Under different circumstances, I could have been posting a large loss.

Football: £29.31 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £29.31 

 

Football Showing 1 - 9 of 9 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Inter v Fiorentina : Over/Under 2.5 goals 10-Dec-11 19:45  10-Dec-11 21:40  13.48
Football / Barnsley v Ipswich : Over/Under 6.5 Goals 10-Dec-11 17:20  10-Dec-11 19:08  -33.87
Football / Barnsley v Ipswich : Over/Under 5.5 Goals 10-Dec-11 17:20  10-Dec-11 18:51  18.85
Football / Barnsley v Ipswich : Over/Under 2.5 goals 10-Dec-11 17:20  10-Dec-11 18:37  -15.84
Football / Mainz v Hamburg : Correct Score 10-Dec-11 14:30  10-Dec-11 16:23  17.88
Football / Southampton v Blackpool : Correct Score 10-Dec-11 12:45  10-Dec-11 14:43  45.71
Football / Southampton v Blackpool : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 10-Dec-11 12:45  10-Dec-11 14:41  29.16
Football / Southampton v Blackpool : Over/Under 2.5 goals 10-Dec-11 12:45  10-Dec-11 13:54  -65.65
Football / Bochum v Fortuna Dusseldorf : Correct Score 10-Dec-11 12:00  10-Dec-11 13:51  19.59

Skating on... ?

Took my family ice skating this evening, as an outside rink had been erected in the town centre for Christmas. This was great fun, and I was able to skate around quite efficiently towards the end. Stopping was a bit of a problem, but smashing into the wall seemed to work okay.

Thankfully, today was not a metaphor for my betting this evening. No skating on thin ice :-)

Nice steady profit, and since my crazy behaviour last Sunday, I'm thankful that I have maintained a nice steady approach.


Soccer: £52.67 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £52.67 

 

Soccer Showing 1 - 4 of 4 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Soccer / H Berlin v Schalke : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 09-Dec-11 19:30  09-Dec-11 21:24  8.51
Soccer / H Berlin v Schalke : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 09-Dec-11 19:30  09-Dec-11 21:24  6.95
Soccer / H Berlin v Schalke : Correct Score 09-Dec-11 19:30  09-Dec-11 21:23  26.30
Soccer / H Berlin v Schalke : Over/Under 2.5 goals 09-Dec-11 19:30  09-Dec-11 20:15  10.91

Taking Advantage

Sometimes it's possible to take advantage of other people's mistakes. God knows, others have certainly taken advantage of my mistakes over the years, so I feel absolutely no remorse or concern about doing the same to others (on Betfair that is, not in "real life").

Got home this evening, and saw that the only game that looked to be of interest was the Italian Cup game between Juventus and Bologna. After eating my meal and relaxing with my wife, I pretty much forgot about the game, but then remembered it with just fifteen minutes remaining of the match.

I managed to scrape a small profit on the game, and was heading for around £14, which I would have been happy with. Juventus scored with a couple of minutes remaining, but then Bologna equalised with pretty much the last kick (or in this case header) of the ball.

Waiting for the unsuspend, I placed a fishing order on the next current score at 1.10. The correct odds at that time should have been about 1.02 or 1.03. It's always worth doing this, as sometimes you'll get a bite. I got a very small one - but the small portion of my bet was matched at 6.00! This meant my small profit was immediately doubled. This, in addition to my normal business on the Extra Time market, meant a very worthwhile profit tonight. Lovely.

Soccer: £56.34 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £56.34 

 

Soccer Showing 1 - 2 of 2 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Soccer / Juventus v Bologna : ET - Correct Score 08-Dec-11 20:00  08-Dec-11 22:33  28.28
Soccer / Juventus v Bologna : Correct Score 08-Dec-11 20:00  08-Dec-11 21:56  28.06

General Ramblings

Please forgive the rambling nature of this entry, but with me now back in my hotel for a couple of nights, it’s once again time for me to ponder on all thing betting – without actually getting involved.

I’ll start by detailing for anyone who is interested, how I got started in betting. I was browsing Martin Lewis’s Money Saving webite, when I came across the well-known article on “Matched Gambling”. I hadn’t ever really been interested in gambling before reading this, but it instantly drew my attention.

For those who don’t know, the “matched gambling” technique is simply taking the “free bets” offered by most bookmakers and laying them off on Betfair to eventually guarantee a profit. In this way, I first funded my Betfair account with well over £5,000. Since then, in five years, I have not once had to make a single deposit into my account, and have steadily withdrawn from it whilst maintaining a healthy betting fund. From there, I ventured into straight backing and laying, absorbing any good books that I could find on the subject, whilst also working hard on generating my own stats and looking for edges.

Something I figured out for myself at a very early stage then was to ask myself these questions:

• What are the minimum odds I require to stay in profit based on the win rate percentage of XX.X ?
• What is the minimum win rate percentage I required to stay in profit based on average odds of X.XX ?

Of course, each question is the inverse of the other. But either way, this is an important/vital question that must be asked, and answered. If you are a straight backer/layer, do you know the answer to these questions? Do you even know how to work it out?

Okay, at the danger of teaching my granny how to suck eggs, let’s say you back a hundred horses at average odds of 1.60 and you have a 4.40% commission rate on Betfair, what is the minimum win rate you require to avoid going into the red? It’s simple really: (100 / your_average_odds / 100) + commission_rate.

And if you have a win rate of 55% on straight betting football match odds, what is the average odds you need to stay in the black? Its: 1 / ( win_percentage + commission_rate ).

Okay, these are simple calculations and everyone of you should know these things, but it’s surprising how many people don’t. What about how to inverse back-odds to lay-odds? Do you know how to do that? It’s: (back_odds / (back_odds -1) ). Or to inverse lay-odds to back-odds, it’s: ( lay_odds / (lay_odds -1) ). Yes, it’s that simple. In fact it’s simple as a wrinkle on a pimple.

Once again, you all have my apology if I’m teaching things that you’ve long known, but sometimes we all need a little reminder of the basics. And so, from the stats above, if you win percentage is not high enough for the average odds that you are backing, then you either need to find some way to increase your win rate, or else you need to raise up the odds in order to hit a valid line. Otherwise it’s all pointless and you’ll steadily lose your bank.

Personally, I’ve largely moved away from straight betting these days. Using the calculations above I soon realised that my edge on fixed odds betting was just too small, and that commission was wiping-out all my hard-earned profits. This is why I moved over to trading/scalping, where I have found things to be much healthier for me.

As you have already seen from the small sample of blog entries so far, my trading/scalping is a little bit of a roller-coaster ride, but even with these unnecessary swings in fortune, I still manage to make some money from my trading. If I can learn to lessen the swings, then I feel that I could be heading for larger profits in the near future. Then again, this is all our hopes, isn’t it?

Order Restored

After my huge aberration yesterday, order and discipline and a steady approach have all been thankfully restored. Steady, boring profit today, which is exactly what was required.

I don't have much to report other than to say that I'm very, very happy with the way that things have gone tonight.

Soccer: £64.05 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £64.05 

 

Soccer Showing 1 - 4 of 4 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Soccer / Fulham v Liverpool : Over/Under 2.5 goals 05-Dec-11 20:00  05-Dec-11 21:57  11.34
Soccer / Fulham v Liverpool : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 05-Dec-11 20:00  05-Dec-11 21:57  19.42
Soccer / Fulham v Liverpool : Correct Score 05-Dec-11 20:00  05-Dec-11 21:55  22.71
Soccer / Lazio v Novara : Correct Score 05-Dec-11 19:45  05-Dec-11 21:40  10.58

I'm So Ashamed

I nearly didn't post this entry, as I do genuinely feel ashamed of myself. But I figure this has got to be a completely honest blog, warts and all. This way, I can learn and, hopefully, others can learn from all my horrible mistakes along the way.

I've been betting/trading/scalping for over five years now, and today was the day I found myself, inexplicably panicking and chasing like there's no tomorrow. There's absolutely no excuse for it - and even more bizarrely no real reason behind it either.

Okay, let me talk you through my P/L today, and I'll attemp to explain all my irrational behaviour. The first three small wins were me trialling a bot that I was running on the match odds. All looks okay for this bot, but it very early days and I will need to perform considerably more testing before I have any real definitive answers for it's success or failure.

The Celtic game was standard trading/scalping and there was no dramas there. So up to this point, the day was panning out in normal fashion, but then it all started falling apart.

For some reason, I decided to put a straight bet on Juventus winning the first half. This is the point where things went bad, and even now I cannot provide an explanation of why I went with this bet. I'm a trader, not a bettor.

Even though they looked they were going to win the match comfortably, the score at half-time was 0-0 and so I lost that bet. This wrankled me as I looked at the profit I'd already made on the other matches and realised that my profit so far was all but wiped out.

"I know, I said to myself, Juventus look like they're going to win this match easily enough, I'll recoup my loss on the half-time by backing them on the full-time match odds."

And so I did. I was watching the game and growing a little exasperated at all the missed chances - and foolishly I decided to get involved in trading the Correct Score at completely the wrong time and in the wrong way. This is something I've never done before but I went ahead anyway. Well, about twenty seconds after I got involved in this market, Juventus scored and I lost  £200.  If I'd remained patient my full-time match odds would have won and that would have been the end of my chasing, but now I was on a roll!

Seeing my losses wracking-up, I continued with my suicide mission, made back about £50 before hitting another loss of around £120. Total loss on this market now hit £274. This meant that overall, at this point I was over £200 down (of course the full-time match odds bet won with no problem).

Absolutely fuming with myself, I decided that I couldn't trade or scalp any more today. So instead, I made yet another totally stupid decision. I threw a straight £300 bet on Over 2.5 goals on the Wolves game. And yes, this bet was won and all my losses were recovered in one fell swoop.

So I come out on top today (over £100), but feel more down and depressed with myself over my betting than I can ever remember. What a complete and utter wanker. There are four distinct episodes of chasing here today, with the final one (luckily) working out.

I cannot really explain how this roller-coaster got started today. It's all so out of character for me and cannot be described as anything other than a complete disaster. And, as I have mentioned at the beginning, I'm ashamed with myself.

Okay, so I will make myself and anyone reading this blog a promise here and now. This is the last time I will EVER do anything as stupid as this ever again. It is utterly pointless and can only lead to heavy, heavy losses in the future. This is my solomn promise.
 
Football: £102.24 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £102.24 

 

Football Showing 1 - 9 of 9 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Wolves v Sunderland : Over/Under 2.5 goals 04-Dec-11 16:00  04-Dec-11 17:41  319.54
Football / Juventus v Cesena : Correct Score 04-Dec-11 14:00  04-Dec-11 15:51  -274.78
Football / Juventus v Cesena : Match Odds 04-Dec-11 14:00  04-Dec-11 15:50  52.30
Football / Juventus v Cesena : Half Time 04-Dec-11 14:00  04-Dec-11 14:47  -37.02
Football / Dundee Utd v Celtic : Over/Under 2.5 goals 04-Dec-11 12:45  04-Dec-11 14:42  13.02
Football / Dundee Utd v Celtic : Correct Score 04-Dec-11 12:45  04-Dec-11 14:40  17.11
Football / Cardiff v Birmingham : Match Odds 04-Dec-11 12:30  04-Dec-11 14:25  5.71
Football / Aachen v 1860 Munich : Match Odds 04-Dec-11 12:30  04-Dec-11 14:21  2.92
Football / Dynamo Dresden v FSV Frankfurt : Match Odds 04-Dec-11 12:30  04-Dec-11 14:20  3.44

WTF

I don't really know what was going on today. I had to go out today before the end of the Chelsea game, so I didn't trade the Correct Score market, but I did so on the Bristol City v Middlesbrough and Aston Villa v Man Utd games - and everything was going haywire!

The graph here is from Bet Angel and shows the massive spikes that were occurring whilst I was trading. But these were not "real" spikes. Huge amounts of money would appear and disappear, often going right through the money I had on offer but none of it would be taken.

I don't know if this is something to do with Betfair's cross-matching or one of their bots trying out something new, but it was royally f*cking up the normal pattern of betting (which was continuing underneath all this bizarred ghostly activity).

No dramas today on the actual betting front. Nice steady profit today :-)

Football: £134.48 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £134.48 

 

Football Showing 1 - 9 of 9 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Inter v Udinese : Over/Under 2.5 goals 03-Dec-11 19:45  03-Dec-11 21:41  0.01
Football / Inter v Udinese : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 03-Dec-11 19:45  03-Dec-11 21:40  5.71
Football / Inter v Udinese : Correct Score 03-Dec-11 19:45  03-Dec-11 21:38  29.53
Football / Fixtures 03 December : Daily Goals 03 Dec PL 03-Dec-11 12:45  03-Dec-11 19:34  -3.18
Football / Aston Villa v Man Utd : Correct Score 03-Dec-11 17:30  03-Dec-11 19:32  16.58
Football / Aston Villa v Man Utd : Over/Under 2.5 goals 03-Dec-11 17:30  03-Dec-11 19:31  37.17
Football / Bristol City v Middlesbrough : Correct Score 03-Dec-11 17:20  03-Dec-11 19:20  9.88
Football / Newcastle v Chelsea : Over/Under 2.5 goals 03-Dec-11 12:45  03-Dec-11 14:39  28.76
Football / G Furth v H Rostock : Over/Under 2.5 goals 03-Dec-11 12:00  03-Dec-11 13:32  10.02

A Hard One

After my attack of the greedy pigs yesterday, I was today determined to return to my normal considered approach. I believe I achieved this, but found tonight quite tough going with money-making opportunities difficult to climb aboard.

Having said that, with a series of scores covered on the Crystal Palace v Derby match, I felt myself somewhat unlucky to be stuffed by an own goal. As far as I was concerned, Derby could have huffed and puffed all night long and not been able to score a goal. They were awful in front on goal.

Anyway, despite a small loss this evening, not too unhappy. Most of my trades and forward positions panned out correctly. And if not for the own goal, I would have had a good evening of betting.
As they say, tomorrow's another day, and matches mean money!


Soccer: -£23.03 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  -£23.03 

 

Soccer Showing 1 - 4 of 4 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Soccer / C Palace v Derby : Correct Score 02-Dec-11 19:45  02-Dec-11 21:42  -81.31
Soccer / C Palace v Derby : Over/Under 2.5 goals 02-Dec-11 19:45  02-Dec-11 21:41  22.70
Soccer / Leverkusen v Hoffenheim : Over/Under 2.5 goals 02-Dec-11 19:30  02-Dec-11 21:25  7.96
Soccer / Leverkusen v Hoffenheim : Correct Score 02-Dec-11 19:30  02-Dec-11 21:23  27.62

Being Greedy Makes You Skinny

What do I mean? Well, as scalpers and traders we've probably all experienced staying just slighly too long in that open position, attempting to grab those one or two extra ticks. But I'm here to tell you that these small moments of greed will ultimately have a negative affect and cause your profits to become skinny.

"Just another tick. Ooh, I got that quick, so just another one or two..."
"Aaargh! Bollocks!"

Yes, you've been there. And I'm slightly ashamed to say that is where I was today. Coming back home from working away, I just got in to see the last fifteen minutes of the Twente v Fulham game. I don't like to admit it, but looking back, my first thought was,

"Damn, I've missed most of the game, let's see if I can make this worthwhile".

Placing that silly thought in my head then meant that I tried pushing it just that little bit too far. A goal went in during the last two minutes when I had absolutely no right being in the game... and the result was a deserved loss.

I restored my discipline for the Stoke game, although due to home circumstances I missed the first-half of this game also, but I still end the night with a fairly large red.

Disappointed with myself, but sometimes lessons need to be learnt again and again...


Football: -£137.85 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  -£137.85 

 

Football Showing 1 - 3 of 3 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Stoke v Dinamo Kiev : Correct Score 01-Dec-11 20:05  01-Dec-11 22:01  37.14
Football / Stoke v Dinamo Kiev : Over/Under 2.5 goals 01-Dec-11 20:05  01-Dec-11 21:59  5.84
Football / Twente v Fulham : Correct Score 01-Dec-11 18:00  01-Dec-11 19:55  -180.83