It Didn't Knock For Me

Gundulf, over at Betfair Football Trading mentioned the match last night between Dortmund and Stuttgart, and what an absolute corker of a game it was. Dortmund 2-0 up, then go behind 2-3, before going ahead in the final minute to lead 4-3. Game over? Nope, still time for yet one more goal to make it 4-4.

The title of Gundulf's post is "this one escaped me; but opportunity knocked for someone!"

Well, I was trading this match. Started on the Under 2.5 goals, moved up to 3.5 goals and finally onto the correct score market. At 2-0 to Dortmund, I took at look at the match odds and saw Dortmund were backable at 1.01 and layable at 1.02. There were still 25 minutes to go at that point, and I said to myself, "That's a lay at that price. One goal back and the whole game changes."

So, what did I do about it? Nothing. Don't really know why. I was busy managing my correct score positions, which considering the torrent of goals I'm absolutely delighted to have come away from with a small profit.

Still can't help thinking that popping a £1,000 on at that point (with only a £20 liability) was the right move, even if it hadn't come off. And yes, I suppose there is a degree of hindsight talking here. I just found it strange that I talked to myself about it and then did nothing about it.



Football: -£14.26 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  -£14.26 

 

Football Showing 1 - 5 of 5 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Dortmund v Stuttgart : Correct Score 30-Mar-12 19:30  30-Mar-12 21:17  15.26
Football / Dortmund v Stuttgart : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 30-Mar-12 19:30  30-Mar-12 21:06  7.81
Football / Dortmund v Stuttgart : Over/Under 2.5 goals 30-Mar-12 19:30  30-Mar-12 21:00  18.21
Football / Aachen v Dynamo Dresden : Correct Score 30-Mar-12 17:00  30-Mar-12 18:54  50.46
Football / Braunschweig v Paderborn : Correct Score 30-Mar-12 17:00  30-Mar-12 18:53  -106.00


Going out for the day soon. No trading today.

Shalke 04 Sign Fatty Arbuckle

I watched and traded a couple of Europa League matches this evening, including the highly entertaining match between Shalke and Athletico Madrid. Cracking game of football.

At the start of the second half, Shalke were forced into substituting their goalkeeper and brought on their fourth-choice keeper, a Mr. Mathias Schober.

I have to confess that when I saw him, my mouth dropped open slightly. Doubtless, being a fourth-choice keeper it must be difficult for him. It must be hard to maintain one's motivation and, ahem, fitness levels, knowing that you'll rarely - if ever - be called upon to keep goal for your team. In such a situation, I suppose it's possible to let yourself go a little bit and perhaps not visit the gym quite as often as you should - but our Mr Schober certainly takes the biscuit... Indeed I think he took the whole packet.

Here is a man who's BMI is measured in acres. He's so fat that the Met Office gives a name to each one of his farts. Yes, Mr Schober has to iron his trousers on his driveway, that's how big he is.

Actually, he did okay as a goalie, although for Madrid's third goal, he palmed the ball out straight to an opposing player who just had to tap it in.  Maybe if he'd been allowed to take some pizza on the pitch with him, he'd have done better.

Football: £100.90 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £100.90 

 

Football Showing 1 - 2 of 2 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / AZ Alkmaar v Valencia : Correct Score 29-Mar-12 20:05  29-Mar-12 22:02  50.46
Football / Schalke v Ath Bilbao : Correct Score 29-Mar-12 20:05  29-Mar-12 21:53  50.44

_________________________________

I won't update you all just yet with my post title experiment from the other day. I'll give it a week before I publish any results, but I did get a couple of interesting comments. The first was from The Sultan, who said:

I'm not sure from your post whether you are aware of this but I'll go ahead anyway; the large number of hits for Top Tennis Tips is probably down to people looking for actual tips on how to play tennis, rather than trading tennis. Will have to see how today's title fares, then we'll know more, though you can guarantee it'll probably get you more hits than usual!

This is undoubtedly true and something I hadn't really considered. I also got this from Gundulf, who even googled my title on my behalf:

Had to do the experiment:

"guaranteed winning strategies betfair" = number 1 on google
"winning strategies betfair" - halfway down the first page on google.
Eddie's blog strike rate = through the roof!

I can assure you that my strike rate is not through the roof, but it has been interesting. Thanks for doing the experiment though.

_________________________________

Spent most of the day drinking with my work colleagues yesterday, and even managed to catch the sun whilst sitting out in the beer garden of our chosen pub. Fantastic day and glorious weather, but today I've come down with something (not a hangover) and feel that weak, achey feeling when you've caught a bug. I'm also horribly bunged up. Consequently, I'm going to have an early night tonight and hope that I feel better tomorrow. I normally enjoy trading on Fridays as there are some good leagues playing and usually plenty of opportunities. I just hope I feel up to it.

Guaranteed Winning Betfair Strategies!

It's not too often that I bother to look at the stats page on my blog, but I couldn't help noticing that one of my most popular posts was that concerning tennis - which is something of a surprise considering this is essentially a football blog. However, this same post keeps getting regular hits day after day, week after week.

There can only be one reason for this regular traffic to this page; it's certainly not the content as anyone reading it will instantly know that I am something of a tennis trading novice, so it can only be down to the title of the post:

Top Tennis Tips

Hmm, I suppose this shows the importance of a good title as it can increase traffic considerably. This simple phrase is obviously being googled and my unassuming little blog is getting hits as a consequence.

This current post has nothing whatsoever to do with winning Betfair strategies, I should make that clear - but it will be interesting to see if the title makes it more popular than it deserves to be over the course of the next few weeks.

I suppose the worrying thing about all this is the type of searches that might be made that will result in my "Famous Genitals" post popping up in Google! The mind boggles. If this post should move up and start heading my top four, then I may have to remove it.

________________________________

My P&L for tonight and last night is undeniably pathetic but, as always, there is some interest behind the puny figures. I won this evening and lost last night, but funnily enough I was more pleased with last night's trading than I was this evening's.

Last night, after my normal trading of the Unders market, in the second-half, with Man Utd pressing, I assumed a second goal would be scored and so layed 0-0 for £60. This wasn't a standard lay however. My intention was to use £200 scalps when the risk was low to steadily lower my potential red as the game progressed, while leaving the full liability in-play during parts of the match where goalmouth action was taking place. My initial potential red was over £220 and I slowly worked this all the way down to £131.

I think this strategy works quite well, and there were several chances for me to have won my bet outright last night. Next time, I need to better match my liability with my red reduction stake so that by the end I will effectively have a scratched trade if no goal is scored. This is a decent low(ish) risk method of laying the current scoreline, with a decent upside.

BTW, the Bundesliga winner market on my P&L was part of a dutch that I did right at the start of the season (also did one on the EPL). Presumably some of it has now been settled as there are teams that cannot mathematically win anymore.

________________________________

Overall, I have to conclude that this month has been something of a disappointment. I started the month really well and thought I was going to be heading for a £2,000 month, but it soon turned a bit pear-shaped. I haven't had a losing month for seven months straight, and this month will also be profitable - but I can't help feeling rather disappointed by the way it's ending as it's all been a bit flat.

I'm going out on the piss tomorrow night so there will be no trading.


Football: £2.29 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £2.29 

 

Football Showing 1 - 5 of 5 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Sunderland v Everton : Correct Score 27-Mar-12 20:00  27-Mar-12 22:01  50.36
Football / APOEL v Real Madrid : Correct Score 27-Mar-12 19:45  27-Mar-12 21:38  49.62
Football / Bundesliga 1 : Winner 2011/12 05-Aug-11 19:30  27-Mar-12 17:05  4.59
Football / Man Utd v Fulham : Correct Score 26-Mar-12 20:00  26-Mar-12 21:56  -131.30
Football / Man Utd v Fulham : Over/Under 2.5 goals 26-Mar-12 20:00  26-Mar-12 21:54  29.02

Back When Laying

Nothing to do with betting, I'm afraid. My poor old back is aching like there's no tomorrow after spending a day laying my sister's laminate flooring - and it's still not finished. If anyone's got an old spine that they don't need, perhaps you could send it to me in a jiffy bag. Mine's completely knackered. I wouldn't mind, but I don't even like laminate.

On the betting front, I managed a couple of cheeky (and if I'm honest, naughty) trades on the Chelsea game via my phone while in my sister's house, and then also got home for a quicky chinese takeaway and a little trading on the Man City game. In truth my heart wasn't really in it (the trading, not the Chinese!) as I was too tired, but I plodded along on autopilot and lost a little bit of money.

Overall today, an insignificant and very small loss - but then again I didn't really do much, so it hardly matters either way.

Football: -£16.16 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  -£16.16 

 

Football Showing 1 - 4 of 4 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Stoke v Man City : Correct Score 24-Mar-12 17:30  24-Mar-12 19:31  -51.48
Football / Stoke v Man City : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 24-Mar-12 17:30  24-Mar-12 19:08  17.33
Football / Chelsea v Tottenham : Over/Under 2.5 goals 24-Mar-12 12:45  24-Mar-12 14:41  12.26
Football / Chelsea v Tottenham : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 24-Mar-12 12:45  24-Mar-12 14:41  5.73

__________________________________________

Just a last update on the P&L debate before I leave it alone. Mark Iverson wrote:

In my case I can only say that I stopped posting my p&l due to the income I was generating becoming more than just a hobby. I didn't want people who knew me 'in the real world' looking at me differently because I'd lost or won x amount in one day. in addition, as I became more serious I also didn't want to draw attention to the Inland Revenue about how you could make money on the exchanges.


Afterall, if someones onto a good thing, there can be a sense from some quarters that something needs to be done about it.


For what it's worth though, I love reading blogs that post p&l's!

As I replied to him, these are two reasons that I hadn't even considered when I drafted my post. Both valid points.

Friday Business

After the frivolous and rather childish post from yesterday, today I'll just report that it was back to business with a couple of small trades that went okay for me tonight. I find that I generally do well in the German leagues and so it proved again tonight. Had a good quick result in the Bundesliga 2 match, and then followed that up soon after with the Wolfsburg match, which yielded some safe, steady profits also.

Unfortunately, tomorrow I've been seconded into laying my sister's laminate flooring, so I suspect that there will very little in the way of trading for me. Sunday also looks like a washout, as we're heading to Brighton for the day.

This tends to happen as the weather improves - my trading shrinks. This of course is no bad thing. It's always good to get out in the sunshine and enjoy.

If I don't trade over the weekend, I hope you all have a good one.


Football: £105.74 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £105.74 

 

Football Showing 1 - 3 of 3 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Wolfsburg v Hamburg : Correct Score 23-Mar-12 19:30  23-Mar-12 21:25  50.03
Football / Wolfsburg v Hamburg : Over/Under 2.5 goals 23-Mar-12 19:30  23-Mar-12 21:03  4.97
Football / Dynamo Dresden v 1860 Munich : Correct Score 23-Mar-12 17:00  23-Mar-12 18:54  50.74

Famous Genitals

Just a quick update on yesterday's post, before I go ahead and try to explain the bizzare title for this evening's post.

There was this well-thought out comment from The Sultan (Centre Court Trading), who said:

Hi Soccerdude, agree with pretty much everything you've said. I think the vast majority of us are curious and want to see how much everyone is making, even though it's probably not the best thing to be doing because it can make us feel inadequate.

I don't think it's any coincidence that those blogs which have shown the most regular P&L profits have been the most popular (Psychoff, Adam Heathcote and Mark Iverson spring to mind). Of course, they also wrote a great deal of interest too, so that helped.

The problem with P&L blogs is that some of them only have the P&L and not a lot else and almost all of them never show a losing day. If you are going to do it regularly, you have to show the bad days too, otherwise you are essentially lying to the reader. I can actually name several blogs that only ever post green screens and I know of at least 3 that are still going which have pretty much nothing to say other than a brief line or two (not gonna mention them here but they do exist). Most of these blogs dissappear after a short time (could be why you don't notice them), I imagine because they are not only boring to read but boring to write.

I always used to post up my bad days aswell as my good days, so it does annoy me when you get P&L blogs that never show losing days. I stopped posting them a while back now because I realised that being focused on monetary amounts is detrimental to me, so I don't even look at my P&L till the end of the month now.

The Sultan's point about P&L blogs that only ever show winning days was also echoed in Dave's blog HERE, where he mentions bloggers who suffer from what can "euphemistically be termed 'memory lapses' (ie. they blog the 'P' but not the 'L' :-))"

I think we must all be in general agreement here on this point. But let's not water it down; this kind of blogging is just bare-faced lying and who likes a liar? The other point about these kind of people is that they must also be trying to kid themselves that they are better than they are, and that's probably the saddest aspect of all.

As mentioned yesterday, for me a P&L doesn't have to be a profitable one to be interesting. Often the opposite is the case, and to watch someone struggling with a bad downturn and to see how they cope with it can often be more revealing and informative than someone who wins all the time.

______________________________________

Okay, as promised, I'll try and explain my unusual title. It concerns Rob The Builder's entry from a couple of days ago HERE, where he tells of being lucky enough to stumble upon Sugar Ray Leonard at a book signing.

I felt a bit jealous of Rob, for Leonard was one of my heros when I was younger and he was in his hay-day. Leonard really was a superstar in his sport and without doubt one of the greatest boxers we’ve ever seen. His hands were like lightening.

Unfortunately I don’t really have anything to compete with Rob's excellent sighting. I went to the same school as Glen Hoddle, although we weren't there at the same time - and that's about it as far as famous sportsmen or women are concerned.

Moving away from sportsfolk, I can boast that I've seen the genitals of both Richard and David Attenborough at the same time, and I’ve also smelled Robert Maxwell’s shit (before he fell off his yacht).

What? was this some bizarre celebrity homo orgy that I'd attended? Thankfully no. Both of these things happened on separate occasions and in innocuous circumstances. The first occurred when I went to watch a screening of Ghandi at the National Theatre on the South Bank. The movie was introduced by Sir Richard Attenborough himself. As the film was long, there was an interval half-way through, and I duly went to the toilet. Following me in, and positioning themselves either side of me was Dickie and his brother, who were happily chatting across me as if I wasn't even there. Well, I'm embarrassed to say that temptation got the better of me, and I did take a sneaky peek at both of the Attenborough's crown jewels - you know, just to check if they were any different to us mere mortals. The results of said inspection I shall keep to myself, but let's just say it's a shame there were no camera phones in those days.

My "personal" friends, the Attenboroughs

So what of newspaper mogul, Robert Maxwell? Again, completely innocent. I was watching a recording of a Jonathan Ross radio show, which was being broadcast from Ronnie Scott's jazz club in Soho. Guest of honour was Mr. Lard bucket himself, Robert Maxwell. There were a few "satellite" guests on before him to help pad out the show, so I again nipped into the toilet while one of these boring peripherals was busy bigging himself up.

Now please don't think there is a pattern emerging here. I'm not in the habit of hanging around lavatories with the intention of spotting celebrities. It's just the way it happened.

Anyway, when I opened the main door to the toilets, the most inhuman, fetid waft of air immediately assaulted my nostrils, and I almost ran screaming back out the door. This was either the Devil's familiar, or a rat had crawled up someone's arse and died. At that moment, one of the cubicle doors opened and out strode Maxwell, his head held high, brazening out the disgusting reek that hung in the air like death itself. Of course I wanted to rebuke him or swear at him, but to my shame I said nothing.

Right, so you're probably all getting mightily bored now and wondering where all this is leading. This is a football trading blog, for fuck's sake, I hear you shouting. What the hell has this got to do with anything?

Well, you have my wholehearted apology. There isn't any football for me to trade tonight, so unfortunately my little story has absolutely nothing to do with anything.

Whoops. :-)

Show And Tell, Or Just Tell?

Tonight, I thought I'd have a little brush with controversy and discuss the thorny subject of P&Ls. Those of you who may just have happened onto this blog by accident should know up front that this is most definitely a P&L blog. Unashamedly so. Whether I win or lose, I will always try to post up the end result of each day's trading. So take it or leave it.

When it comes to betting blogs, it seems people are divided between those who like to display their P&L and those who don't - and by the same token those who like to read about P&Ls and those who don't. Those bloggers that do not display their P&Ls, for some reason, seem to hold a good measure of dislike - hatred even - against those blogs that do show precisely how they have fared. I'm not quite sure why, but a good many of the betting and trading blogs out there, some of which are well-establish and well-written blogs, tend to look down their noses at us P&L blogites. But why exactly do P&L blogs attact vitriol?

The main accusation is that P&L blogs are boring - a damning accusation indeed. But is this really so? If a blog displays ONLY an individual's P&L and nothing else - perhaps accompanied with "tonight I made/lost xxx" - then I would probably agree that this doesn't make enthralling reading. However, I don't know about you, but I don't personally know of any such blogs, although I'm sure they'll be some somewhere in the world. All the P&L blogs that I am aware of mix things up a little. The P&L is most assuredly there, but there is also opinion, views, the usual highs and lows, trialling of various methods and so on and so forth. The P&L bit is only one small aspect of each blog posting that I read; and as just one additional facet of the overall blog, it doesn't seem to detract from each individual post. Far from it. I think it helps to pull a blog into sharper focus.

Okay, so what else do people hate about blogs that put up their P&L? In truth I'm not really sure. What I do know is that there are a lot of bloggers out there who are disingenuous on this whole subject. There are some blogs who, even though now long established non-P&L blogs (no names, no pack drill) actually started out regularly presenting their P&Ls to their readership each day or each week. However, after a period of time, they mysteriously stopped doing so and changed their blogs into non-P&L versions. And now that they are a long way down the road of blogging, they now take it upon themselves to casually attack P&L blogs as though they are the devil's creation. Why is that? Is it because their own P&Ls became something of an embarrassment to them, so they sneakily stopped displaying them, covering over their poor performances by brazenly stating that P&Ls are "boring" or not worth reading? Maybe. I don't really know.

As mentioned, my own blog does regularly have my P&L posted up, and I will continue to do so. Along with these summaries of each day's trading, I also try my best to mix things up a little and have tried to post up entries hopefully to entertain and inform any readers. I try to share and disseminate information and methods that I feel will help, or offer my views of outstanding events.

My blog is still relatively new. It only really got going at the back end of last year and I have less than 20,000 recorded visitors to my pages. It may be, therefore, that as a newbie, I don't fully understand the true nastiness of showing one's P&L, or perhaps I'll just "mature" and grow out of the practice once I've seen the light. Then again, I may not.

Personally, I like to look at other people's P&Ls. Not only does it show me the level they are betting at (which as a nosey person is interesting to me), but it also adds an additional dimension to what they have to say about their experiences of that particular day, pulling it all into focus. Afterall, the money is what it's all about, so why on earth shouldn't we be interested? I don't mind if someone is successful or whether they are enduring a long series of negative days or weeks. Blogging is not about being successful, it's about sharing our views, opinions and experiences of betting or trading, whether they are good or bad. But let's not talk about profit and loss as though they are dirty words. Mention of it is not vulgar or crass; it's what each and every one of us is interested in.

______________________________________________

Well, after me singing the praises of the P&L, it's slightly embarrassing that I don't have one to show you tonight! Instead of trading this evening, I went down the pub to watch the Man City match, which was only okay-ish. Nothing special to watch. I wish instead that they'd shown the QPR v Liverpool match, which sounded amazing. I'm just about to watch that game on MOTD.

Once again, I don't want to discuss anything where the sentences have the words Spurs or Arsenal contained in them. Got it?

Comfortable?

A little more on correct score betting tonight. Although I listed a great many possible methods in my overview of this market, it's fair to say that I don't follow many of them. I've flirted with all of them in my time, but we all eventually settle on those trades we feel are a good fit for our style or which we feel comfortable with. And by that, I mean choosing a method that matches the level of risk/reward that we're comfortable with.

I suppose if I had to pigeon-hole myself, I'd place myself squarely in the middle when it comes to risk aversion. I'm happy to put myself into risk situations under certain situations, but am not happy to place large chunks of my bank on the line at any one time.

I do not, and indeed never have, re-credited my account ever since I used matched gambling to acquire a bank in the first place. So there is no way I'm going to start using my work income to fund my betting, so placing myself in a position of too much risk obviously causes alarm bells to start ringing loudly.

Having said that, as a trader, I do use a greater percentage of my bank than I would if I were putting straight bets on, and I'm comfortable doing this so long as I can always see a way out. I'm happy to accept a certain level of risk, but only if I have completed detailed research of the matches of interest, and only if I know my full liability and am willing to lose that amount. I always want to know my entry point and my exit point.

Right, so onto tonight's trading where I duly ignored these criteria just so that I could re-try one of the methods listed in my correct score overview. This was the time-limited lay of 0-0, which frankly is a rather rudimentary method which has lots of problems and downsides. Consequently, I wouldn't recommend it to anyone. Why I decided to suddenly give it another whirl this evening, I'm not quite sure. It may be because I didn't go out tonight, and so have been stuck in my hotel all evening. Perhaps I've gone a little stir crazy.

I did indeed research all five matches that I bet on tonight (I won't dignify them by calling them trades), and was satisfied that all would have goals in them. I determined my risk on each match to be a maximum of £130, and if no goals were scored within the time window I'd chosen for each game, then I was looking at a maximum total loss of £650. Now, frankly this is way bigger than the normal level of risk that I'm comfortable with, even though I was confident that it would never get that big. Indeed, as things turned out, I had five perfect bets, with goals being scored in each match within the chosen time frames. The Leeds match was an unbelievable goalfest.

Throughout the evening, however, I felt no enjoyment from my betting (which I usually do) as the risk was just too large. Betting/trading is a hobby for me, so it's important to try and enjoy the time I spend doing it. This didn't happen this evening.

Consequently, I don't think I will be repeating this little diversion away from my usual methods, but sometimes it can be good to remind ourselves just why we use one method over another. Perhaps you're the type of person who is happy with a large level of risk, in which case this method could be okay for you, but beyond feeling uncomfortable, there will also be times when large losses would indeed be encountered and, depending on your bank size, could put a considerable dent in it.

So I will say thank you to the time-limited lay of 0-0 for tonight, and only tonight. I will not be revisiting this method again, and will return to my normal level of risk.

Football: £252.55 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £252.55 

 

Football Showing 1 - 5 of 5 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Blackburn v Sunderland : Correct Score 20-Mar-12 20:00  20-Mar-12 21:53  50.51
Football / Brighton v Derby : Correct Score 20-Mar-12 19:45  20-Mar-12 21:51  50.51
Football / Sheff Wed v Walsall : Correct Score 20-Mar-12 19:45  20-Mar-12 21:48  50.51
Football / West Ham v Middlesbrough : Correct Score 20-Mar-12 19:45  20-Mar-12 21:44  50.51
Football / Leeds v Nottm Forest : Correct Score 20-Mar-12 19:45  20-Mar-12 21:04  50.51

The Karaoke Kid

I'll be up front with you. I have an aversion of Karaoke bordering on hatred (the great British reserve and all that, I suppose). This is in stark contrast to my wife, who absolutely loves it and grabs a microphone whenever she sees one. This can be embarrassing at times, if she lunges for, what she thinks is a microphone, but turns out to be something else entirely different.

So what have I been doing nearly all afternoon today? Yes. Karaoke. Don't ask me the details, but this sad tale of a mis-spent day surrounded by people who amazingly all think they possess some special talent (a bit like the Football forum on Betfair) has been something of a horror show. It's also meant nearly all chances of watching my beloved footy and betting on it has had to take a forlorn back seat. Yesterday saw zero trading, as did Friday, for different - albeit equally unimportant - reasons.

I did manage to sneak some trades on one Spanish and one Italian game this evening, which made me feel as if I hadn't completely wasted my weekend, but I feel a bit miffed that I missed the F.A. Cup games today.

BTW, I'm still in the process of knocking up some posts on match odds and also one on technical arbitrage (apologies for anyone waiting on these), so what out for those in due course. If I can grab five minutes to wipe my own arse, I'll try and pop them up.


Soccer: £137.29 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £137.29 

 

Soccer Showing 1 - 3 of 3 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Soccer / Udinese v Napoli : Correct Score 18-Mar-12 19:45  18-Mar-12 21:38  75.95
Soccer / Udinese v Napoli : Over/Under 2.5 goals 18-Mar-12 19:45  18-Mar-12 21:24  10.83
Soccer / Ath Bilbao v Valencia : Correct Score 18-Mar-12 17:00  18-Mar-12 18:51  50.51

My One True Love

Don't worry. This is still a trading blog and not a dating agency or a Dear Deidre column, but I do want to tell you about the market that is most close to my heart.

Yes, of course it's the correct score market, which as you know I've already written about extensively in my Correct Score Overview a couple of months ago.




While away from home, I lost money yesterday, but missed out from being matched on a couple of games by a few mere seconds that could have left me with a profit on the night. Bit disappointing, but nothing out of the ordinary. Tonight, however, I did well on the Chelsea match and used three different strategies to make my money.

One of them I don't use as often as perhaps I should, but can sometime yield good results if the conditions are correct. At around 20 minutes into the game, I layed 1-0 to Chelsea for £50, but why would I do that? Was this a straight bet or was it a trade?

It was most definitely a trade. The 1-0 scoreline was 6.8 at the time, whilst the current scoreline of 0-0 was still just under 10s and decaying slowly (the market was obviously expecting goals). I knew that the 1-0 scoreline would draw in a little as the game progressed, and would probably go as low as 4s if the game stayed as it was... but I also knew that if a goal was scored in the first half, then I would profit either way.

If Napoli scored then I would have won my bet outright. If Chelsea scored (as they did), then I knew that the 1-0 scoreline would simply pop-up to where the 0-0 scoreline was currently positioned at. If no goal was scored, then the 0-0 score would continue to move down and at some point, probably early in the second-half, would cross over below the 1-0 odds. This would then have been the time to trade-out for a small loss. But Chelsea scored in the 28th minute and the 1-0 scoreline moved up to 9.80, allowing me to secure a profit by trading out at that point.

It's a simple, low-risk, decent little trade that I used to employ more than I do now. Often we use something that works, then for one reason or another we move onto other strategies and can forget methods that have worked well for us. This of course is missing a trick. I'll have to remember this method and put it back into my arsenal of tactics.

_______________________________________

 

Apologies for the absolutely paltry P&L tonight. Yesterday was a £110 loss, which was made up nicely with the good trades tonight.

Football: £9.30 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £9.30 

 

Football Showing 1 - 7 of 7 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Chelsea v Napoli : ET - Correct Score 14-Mar-12 19:45  14-Mar-12 22:13  63.31
Football / Chelsea v Napoli : Correct Score 14-Mar-12 19:45  14-Mar-12 21:37  56.53
Football / Colchester v Sheff Utd : Correct Score 13-Mar-12 19:45  13-Mar-12 21:50  50.51
Football / Derby v Nottm Forest : Correct Score 13-Mar-12 19:45  13-Mar-12 21:47  -108.30
Football / Inter v Marseille : Correct Score 13-Mar-12 19:45  13-Mar-12 21:46  -122.00
Football / Yeovil v Scunthorpe : Correct Score 13-Mar-12 19:45  13-Mar-12 21:44  18.74
Football / Dag and Red v Northampton : Correct Score 13-Mar-12 19:45  13-Mar-12 21:41  50.51

All Bets Are Off

This is often my motto when it comes to Derby matches, such as the Liverpool v Everton match this evening.

As you probably know, I like my stats and often spend time going over them before I decide to get involved in a match (depending on whether I'm trading or scalping).

I had already decided that I wouldn't get involved in the Liverpool match, but still had a look at the very basic stats to see what they looked like - and although this is undoubtedly awful after-timing, it does show that if you rely on just the basic data then you'll probably be heading for bankruptcy in the long term. So what did the basic data have to say?

Well it showed that Liverpool had drawn more games at home than any other team in the league, a whopping 61%. It also showed that their matches at Anfield had only averaged a paltry 1.92 goals.

And for the visitors, before this match, they had seemingly struck a little run of form, but their away matches had also only seen 2.15 goals scored on average.

If I was going to have a stab at a prediction on this game based only on these stats - putting to one side the fact that I already know the result - then I would have guessed at a low-scoring draw, possibly 0-0 or 1-1. But of course had I trusted these rather rudimentary methods, I would have lost money.

I should point out here, that I didn't bother to look at any of my advanced methods for this match, so there is the possibility that these too could also have pointed to the same kind of prediction. Generally, however, they would prove more profitable.

Many people avoid derby matches, so I realise that I'm not saying anything particularly new in this respect. I only mention this game because the raw data does (apparently) throw-up an opportunity. But looking at the data in this way provides absolutely no edge whatsoever. Every man and his dog is not only capable but probably also willing to analyse the data with such rushed brushstrokes, so we must go further if we're to make any serious headway.

This follows on from what I was saying in my I See Deep Patterns post last month, in which I suggested that we should try to look at the data in a different way. Whether betting/trading/scalping is a profession for you, a hobby or just a bit of a laugh, we all want to win money (or it's not a laugh, is it?). And in order for us to achieve this goal, we need to put a little bit of work in.

We shouldn't be afraid of this. Generating the data is not never-ending work. Often, once you've sorted the data into the format that you require, then it's just a case of keeping the raw data up-to-date. The football-data website can provide most of what you require in this respect, and what's missing can be gleaned from other sites. But once you have gathered it and formatted it, then analysed properly, it should prove it's worth over time.

And then, all bets will be back on again :-)

Gutted

There is an inevitability about Spurs waning performances towards the end of the season - as they always seem to do - and Arsenal scoring with (effectively) the last kick of the game tonight, shrinking the gap between Spurs and Arsenal to just one point. Of course, Spurs will continue their self-destruction and end up fourth, fifth or worse. And the scumbag gooners will take third. Sure as eggs are eggs.

The only saving grace about tonight was that I earned some decent money from the game. I managed £12 on Under 2.5 goals, after the two quick goals went in, I moved across to 4.5 goals and grabbed a small amount until the odds were too low for me. At that point I moved back to 3.5 goals and followed those odds down. When they no longer satisfied my criteria, I waited ten minutes or so and then carried on with the correct score market.

The match was dramatic, but it's always nice when there is a complete lack of drama when it comes to trading.

Ooh, I also managed to win £25 on the Betfair Treasure Chest thingy. I didn't even know what my target was, but my loss a few days back undoubtedly helped me to achieve whatever target had been set.

2012-03-12
16:09 90018714038 2012-03-12
16:09 
978-CSP001-Reward Chest v1 s2-ADJ43   - - -   25.00 


Football: £128.09 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £128.09 

 

Football Showing 1 - 6 of 6 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Arsenal v Newcastle : Correct Score 12-Mar-12 20:00  12-Mar-12 22:06  37.54
Football / Arsenal v Newcastle : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 12-Mar-12 20:00  12-Mar-12 22:03  25.31
Football / Arsenal v Newcastle : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 12-Mar-12 20:00  12-Mar-12 22:02  7.99
Football / Arsenal v Newcastle : Over/Under 2.5 goals 12-Mar-12 20:00  12-Mar-12 21:54  12.63
Football / Lens v Bastia : Correct Score 12-Mar-12 19:30  12-Mar-12 21:23  -5.89
Football / St Pauli v Karlsruhe : Correct Score 12-Mar-12 19:15  12-Mar-12 21:08  50.51


Just to let you know, I haven't forgotten about my match odds series. I'm presently knocking-up the third part and this should hopefully be posted soon.

Steady As She Goes

My apologies for continually harping on about my loss the other day, but I'm not really used to losing heavily so it takes some getting used to. Two days later, however, and I appear to have steadied the ship somewhat. Another decent, solid day with nothing out of the ordinary.

The Lazio v Bologna match was exciting, with Lazio going down to nine men and shots peppering both goals. All exciting stuff.

I had three correct score trades today of the flavour that caused the losses the other day, with two losses and one winner, resulting in about £35 loss overall. With my other usual trades, I still managed a good day.


Football: £96.86 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £96.86 

 

Football Showing 1 - 9 of 9 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Lazio v Bologna : Correct Score 11-Mar-12 19:45  11-Mar-12 21:37  34.04
Football / Lazio v Bologna : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 11-Mar-12 19:45  11-Mar-12 21:01  0.91
Football / Lazio v Bologna : Over/Under 2.5 goals 11-Mar-12 19:45  11-Mar-12 20:57  6.77
Football / Norwich v Wigan : Over/Under 2.5 goals 11-Mar-12 16:00  11-Mar-12 17:58  45.96
Football / Norwich v Wigan : Correct Score 11-Mar-12 16:00  11-Mar-12 17:56  47.77
Football / Schalke v Hamburg : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 11-Mar-12 16:30  11-Mar-12 17:16  0.00
Football / Middlesbrough v Leeds : Over/Under 2.5 goals 11-Mar-12 12:15  11-Mar-12 14:21  40.67
Football / Dynamo Dresden v Ingolstadt : Correct Score 11-Mar-12 12:30  11-Mar-12 14:20  -129.77
Football / H Rostock v Eintracht Frankfurt : Correct Score 11-Mar-12 12:30  11-Mar-12 14:11  50.51

Let The Bad Times Roll

After my bad day's trading yesterday, I now feel sufficiently removed from the events to discuss it in a bit more detail. Most of what I am about to say will doubtless be filled with the usual platitudes and cliches, but for me they are true nonetheless.

I'd say the way we as traders handle bad losses is as important as the profit we make (or are supposed to make).


First off, I'd like to thank Jan, who had these words:


just like the roman cesars, it helps to be reminded of our mortality, no matter how disciplined one might be. in fact, i welcome such losses up to a certain degree, because it does in fact help me to stay on the ground.

glad to read that you're not overly frustrated, as it's still all about the fun and kicks of it.

cheers
jan

It's nice of Jan to offer some encouragement, although I'm not sure I can join him in welcoming losses as readily as he seems to do. I do take his point that sometimes we all need a little corrective slap on the wrist to help us stay on the path and, looking back over the last few weeks, with things going so well, I had definitely grown steadily more complacent and over-confident. If this is indeed true, then I suppose Jan is correct.

The other interesting thing for me is the peaks and valleys nature of betting and trading, which I believe I've talked about before. When in the deepest part of the valley, we often can't see any way out and wonder if we'll ever start winning again. And when riding high and things are going well, we forget the valleys and start to feel as if this game is easy.

To get into the details of my losses, these came largely from my pattern-observation trade that I talked about previously. This means I will always red-out at some point if my trades haven't worked out how I want them to. Yesterday, nearly every one I tried out didn't work out and I had to take red after red.

One way to look at this, if I'm convinced that I have indeed found a pattern worth persuing (and after back-testing it, I am convinced), then I can only put yesterdays losses down to variance. There will always be kinks and putting to one side an idea just because of one bad day would be a huge mistake. Even though my confidence has undoubtedly taken a bit of a knock, I will definitely continue and see my idea out.

There is no way on earth I will be chasing down this loss. I was not able to trade during the day today, but I got home in time for the Everton v Spurs match (Spurs unfortunately seem to be sliding towards the Europa league at present) and also did a couple of other trades. There was a definite feeling of taking things slowly and being a little more reserved than normal, but under the circumstances this is no bad thing. So I will take it easy, try and forget about yesterday with regards to trading on each day, and see how I go.

Football: £99.98 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £99.98 

 

Football Showing 1 - 6 of 6 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Palermo v Roma : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 10-Mar-12 19:45  10-Mar-12 21:40  11.55
Football / Palermo v Roma : Over/Under 2.5 goals 10-Mar-12 19:45  10-Mar-12 21:40  10.21
Football / Palermo v Roma : Correct Score 10-Mar-12 19:45  10-Mar-12 21:39  17.72
Football / Everton v Tottenham : Over/Under 2.5 goals 10-Mar-12 17:30  10-Mar-12 19:30  13.84
Football / Everton v Tottenham : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 10-Mar-12 17:30  10-Mar-12 19:29  -3.80
Football / Malaga v Levante : Correct Score 10-Mar-12 17:00  10-Mar-12 18:55  50.46

What A Stunner

Unfortunately I'm not talking about the friendly-looking woman on the left. No, I'm talking about a stunner of a loss today - just about the largest one day loss that I can ever remember. Oh deary, deary me.

I suppose I can point to some bad decision-making as I started betting early when I should have been working (I'm not quite sure what that is all about). I do also feel I have been a little unlucky today. There was also a combination of events that I feel assured won't visit me again in the very near future - the moon was in line with Neptune and Orion, and all the lay lines that meet in my district melded into a convergance of evil forces that decended upon my house, momentarily creating an awesome destructive force that tore into my betting bank like there was no tomorrow. What are the chances of that happening?

... Either that, or I was a lazy turd. I'm not sure which it was. The only saving grace about today was that there was not a single trace of chasing throughout the whole sorry affair. That and the fact that I don't really feel as bad as I should after such a day. I suppose I should also comfort myself with the fact that, even though we are only nine days into this month, even with the vile loss today, I'm still up on the month. Quick. What else can I use to assuage the horror of today?

Having said all that, I do now feel the need to pay an overdue visit to my (thankfully) replenished drinks cabinet, to find solace in a nice malt whiskey.

Sadly - or perhaps it's good - I don't think I'm going to have much time tomorrow to try and turn the tide of this shite day. I'll be out most of the day, but I may have time for some trading in the evening.

Signing off for the moment. Now just where the hell is that drink?


Football: -£602.10 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  -£602.10 

 

Football Showing 1 - 13 of 13 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Chievo v Inter : Correct Score 09-Mar-12 19:45  09-Mar-12 21:37  -81.75
Football / Stuttgart v Kaiserslautern : Correct Score 09-Mar-12 19:30  09-Mar-12 21:20  0.76
Football / Kidderminster v Fleetwood Town : Correct Score 09-Mar-12 19:30  09-Mar-12 21:20  50.46
Football / Stuttgart v Kaiserslautern : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 09-Mar-12 19:30  09-Mar-12 21:19  5.79
Football / Stuttgart v Kaiserslautern : Over/Under 2.5 goals 09-Mar-12 19:30  09-Mar-12 21:19  10.29
Football / Ajaccio v Marseille : Correct Score 09-Mar-12 19:00  09-Mar-12 20:52  -113.47
Football / BW Linz v St Polten : Correct Score 09-Mar-12 17:30  09-Mar-12 19:24  -116.95
Football / Paderborn v Bochum : Correct Score 09-Mar-12 17:00  09-Mar-12 18:56  -148.92
Football / Union Berlin v Duisburg : Correct Score 09-Mar-12 17:00  09-Mar-12 18:52  50.46
Football / G Furth v Aachen : Correct Score 09-Mar-12 17:00  09-Mar-12 18:49  -147.22
Football / Sibenik v Rijeka : Correct Score 09-Mar-12 17:00  09-Mar-12 18:48  2.37
Football / FC Nitra v Zilina : Correct Score 09-Mar-12 16:30  09-Mar-12 18:17  10.21
Football / CSKA Moscow v Dinamo Moscow : Correct Score 09-Mar-12 10:00  09-Mar-12 11:55  -124.13

It's All A Matter Of Regression

I'll start tonight answering a question I should have answered two days ago but have been too lazy. The question came from Rob, and was a question on my original match odds compiling post:

Are those "noise reduction" figure always the same for the home and away team?

The short answer is, "no". The long answer is that if you really want to be accurate, then you'll need to gather all the goal supremacy data together for each league that you're interested in, and then run a regression analysis on the data to "iron-out" the kinks and remove the noise. The figures I have given you are based on English football and does cover a great deal of data, but data invariablly moves on, and of course there are undoubtedly differences in characteristics between all the different leagues.

The figures I've given you should do a decent job, nonetheless, but the idea behind my posts on this subject (and yes, I do realise that I still have more to do) was to provide as simple a method as possible. The raw goal difference calculation is simple enough, but turning that into match odds is a bit more tricky, and I didn't really want to delve too deeply into it.

If you are interested in looking a bit further into regression analysis, then you can run this in Excel. It's not installed by default but is part of the Analysis Toolpak. In Excel 2010, go to the BackStage view, Options, Add-ins, then make sure the Analysis ToolPak is enabled.

You can also read about regression analysis HERE

____________________________________________

I had a good night on the Europa games tonight. I was very impressed with Athletico Bilbao against Man Utd. Great passing side. Incisive, strong and direct. All their players also looked comfortable with the ball at their feet. Despite the surfeit of goals in the game, I still got a good total out of it, whilst also running my new "flavour of the month" correct score trade on the Man City and Twente matches.

My P&L includes yesterday's efforts also. Wednesday's trading resulted in a £0.75p loss.


Soccer: £172.92 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £172.92 

 

Soccer Showing 1 - 6 of 6 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Soccer / Man Utd v Ath Bilbao : Correct Score 08-Mar-12 20:05  08-Mar-12 21:58  32.85
Soccer / Man Utd v Ath Bilbao : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 08-Mar-12 20:05  08-Mar-12 21:51  9.21
Soccer / Man Utd v Ath Bilbao : Over/Under 2.5 goals 08-Mar-12 20:05  08-Mar-12 21:33  21.95
Soccer / Sp Lisbon v Man City : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 08-Mar-12 18:00  08-Mar-12 19:59  7.71
Soccer / Sp Lisbon v Man City : Correct Score 08-Mar-12 18:00  08-Mar-12 19:54  50.65
Soccer / Twente v Schalke : Correct Score 08-Mar-12 18:00  08-Mar-12 19:53  50.55

Dave Really Is a Wizard

I don't think that Dave (gundulf) from Betfair Trading - the highs and the lows actually looks like this picture - but really he should do. He is indeed a wizard.

Dave, tonight, put up a post highlighting that A.C. Milan were 1.04 in the To Qualify market, and with Arsenal all set to give it their best, this provided a good trading opportunity. Well, as you know by now, Dave got it absolutely spot on. Arsenal came out all guns (no pun intended) blazing and were 3-0 up by half-time. During the break, Milan went up to 1.49 to back, which gave a lovely green-up at that point.

This was 100% Dave's work and so I would like to thank him here for highlighting an excellent opportunity. As I commented on his blog. Top job.

If you haven't checked out Dave's blog, I'd suggest you head over there now. It's always worth reading.

____________________________________________

Thanks to Dave I did well on the Arsenal game, but had mixed results on my other trades mainly due to trouble at' mill. It appears that Betfair (and many other bookies) lost their live feeds of the Championship and League One matches and so these were suspended for long periods of time. This was unfortunate to say the least as I had approximately £1,800 liability on several games at the time.

The nature of my trades on these matches means that I start-off with a large liability, but I never allow that full liability to be realised and trade-out well before the end of the match. Seeing all these games with a big fat SUSPEND sign was therefore somewhat disconcerting, as you can imagine.

In the second half, the matches slowly were unsuspended match by match, but this had wiped-out all the liquidity and I found myself struggling to close my positions in some places.

Overall, however, a good night due to the Arsenal game and due to Dave highlighting the opportunity:

Football: £263.66 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £263.66 

 

Football Showing 1 - 7 of 7 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Bristol City v Leicester : Correct Score 06-Mar-12 19:45  06-Mar-12 21:50  50.74
Football / Birmingham v Chelsea : Correct Score 06-Mar-12 19:45  06-Mar-12 21:44  50.46
Football / Peterborough v Millwall : Correct Score 06-Mar-12 19:45  06-Mar-12 21:43  43.88
Football / Derby v Blackpool : Correct Score 06-Mar-12 19:45  06-Mar-12 21:43  50.93
Football / Arsenal v AC Milan : To Qualify 06-Mar-12 19:45  06-Mar-12 21:42  214.30
Football / Huddersfield v Hartlepool : Correct Score 06-Mar-12 19:45  06-Mar-12 21:41  -162.00
Football / Charlton v Colchester : Correct Score 06-Mar-12 19:45  06-Mar-12 21:40  15.35

____________________________________________

I was sorely tempted to go back to yesterday's post and edit it, as there are incorrect references and several spelling mistakes (which always annoy me) littered throughout. But, I'll shall resist the temptation and leave it up there as proof positive that drinking makes you look like a grade "A" toss-pot. Be warned, one and all.

And to Rob. I'll try and answer your comment tomorrow now.

Welcome

Don't worry. I haven't been shafted.

No, the reason for the picture is that I've been attacking the arse-end of my drinks cabinet tonight. Yes, Cherry Liquer, Mulled wine, Ouzo (the worst drink in the world, incidentally) and some old brandy from a company I've never heard of, but who have decided to bottle their shite in an amusingly-shaped bottle.

So, all-in-all, I'm happily arseholed - which doesn't go too well with the fact that I have to get up at 5:00am tomorrow morning for my travels to work. Oh well. Fuck it.

As I have mentioned previously, I heartily recommend drinking and trading. It's the best of all possible worlds, as Candice would say. I also regularly seem to do well when I'm drinking too.

I carried on my "away-from-home" trading today, which seems to have taken something of a front seat recently, and with splendiferous results. I really like the trade I persue as it only has a small downside, but ends-up a winner most times. This, as mentioned before, is a result of studying the data and discovering an intersting pattern.

Unfortunately this method meant I had to watch the match between Dinamo Moscow and Anzhi Makhachkala. Dire doesn't really capture it. Awful quality of football from both sides.

I also caught the end of the Southend game on the googly box and managed to pick up a few pennies there too. Southend went down to nine men towards the end. They had a man sent off and, after having made three subs, had a man stretchered off. They did really well to hold out for a point.

Suppose I should offer a half-hearted apologiy as my recent posts have been rather short and curt. I'll endeavour to string more than a couple of sentences together while I'm in my hotel during the week.

Football: £103.69 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £103.69 

 

Football Showing 1 - 5 of 5 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Southend v Crawley Town : Correct Score 05-Mar-12 19:45  05-Mar-12 21:43  42.61
Football / 1860 Munich v St Pauli : Correct Score 05-Mar-12 19:15  05-Mar-12 21:07  -90.30
Football / OB v Silkeborg : Correct Score 05-Mar-12 18:00  05-Mar-12 19:49  50.46
Football / Sivasspor v Galatasaray : Correct Score 05-Mar-12 18:00  05-Mar-12 19:48  50.46
Football / Dinamo Moscow v Anzhi Makhachkala : Correct Score 05-Mar-12 15:30  05-Mar-12 17:31  50.46

Know When To Stop

Decent enough day today, but frustrated as it should have been very good indeed. I felt mentally tired towards the end of the Spurs v Man Utd game and so should have just switched off at that point. If I had then I would have made over £270 today but instead I finished up with just £100.

I suppose this was part greed, part wanting to cap-off the day with a nice feeling. Must learn to know when to stop. Yet another lesson, I suppose, on the path to becoming a decent trader.





Football: £108.72 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £108.72 

 

Football Showing 1 - 13 of 13 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Tottenham v Man Utd : Correct Score 04-Mar-12 16:10  04-Mar-12 18:03  -142.70
Football / Tottenham v Man Utd : Over/Under 2.5 goals 04-Mar-12 16:10  04-Mar-12 17:38  20.72
Football / Tottenham v Man Utd : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 04-Mar-12 16:10  04-Mar-12 17:30  9.40
Football / Fulham v Wolves : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 04-Mar-12 14:05  04-Mar-12 15:25  5.29
Football / Bursaspor v Karabukspor : Correct Score 04-Mar-12 13:00  04-Mar-12 14:49  50.46
Football / Cardiff v West Ham : Correct Score 04-Mar-12 12:45  04-Mar-12 14:43  17.06
Football / Cardiff v West Ham : Over/Under 2.5 goals 04-Mar-12 12:45  04-Mar-12 14:42  6.68
Football / Cardiff v West Ham : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 04-Mar-12 12:45  04-Mar-12 14:21  2.14
Football / Eintracht Frankfurt v Cottbus : Correct Score 04-Mar-12 12:30  04-Mar-12 14:20  50.46
Football / Newcastle v Sunderland : Correct Score 04-Mar-12 12:00  04-Mar-12 14:06  21.69
Football / Newcastle v Sunderland : Over/Under 2.5 goals 04-Mar-12 12:00  04-Mar-12 14:03  14.59
Football / Parma v Napoli : Correct Score 04-Mar-12 11:30  04-Mar-12 13:23  50.93
Football / Parma v Napoli : Over/Under 2.5 goals 04-Mar-12 11:30  04-Mar-12 13:15  2.00

Snippets

Have been reading The Hidden Mathematics of Sport, which is a good fun read and something you can devour in a couple of hours.

It covers a variety of sports and has such interesting topics as where we should aim on a dartboard, how to take a penalty in football, what is the most crucial point in tennis, how in tennis the "loser" can win the match - and so on. All good fun, interesting stuff.

As a footy fan, of course there was also lots of stuff to keep me entertained too, and included a variety of little informational nuggets that were worth digesting.

• Over 30 seasons, home teams score on average  1.5 goals per game.
• Away teams score on average 1.1 goals per game.
• The 1-1 scoreline is the most common result, occuring in approximately 12 per cent of matches.
• The 1-0 and 2-1 home win results are the two next most frequent results.
• The most common away win scoreline is 0-1.
• Goals are scored at an average rate of one every 35 minutes.
• More goals are scored in the second half of games, on average, than in the first.
• Home teams who score first in a match have, on average, over 60% chance of winning the match.
• Any team who scores last in a match has, on average, over 60% chance of winning the match.

A lot of these are well-known already by the majority of bettors, but there also a few that are not so well-known.

______________________________________

Haven't had much time this weekend so far, and so have largely continued my "away from home" strategies. P&L from today and yesterday.

Football: £222.92 | Horse Racing: £0.08 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £223.00 

  

   

  

Football Showing 1 - 13 of 13 markets

  

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)

Football / Juventus v Chievo : Correct Score 03-Mar-12 19:45  03-Mar-12 21:40  50.46

Football / Nancy v Lyon : Correct Score 03-Mar-12 18:00  03-Mar-12 19:49  50.46

Football / Getafe v Malaga : Correct Score 03-Mar-12 17:00  03-Mar-12 18:53  50.46

Football / Birmingham v Derby : Correct Score 03-Mar-12 15:00  03-Mar-12 17:09  50.46

Football / Leverkusen v B Munich : Correct Score 03-Mar-12 14:30  03-Mar-12 16:23  -106.00

Football / Liverpool v Arsenal : Over/Under 2.5 goals 03-Mar-12 12:45  03-Mar-12 14:37  20.09

Football / Aachen v Paderborn : Correct Score 03-Mar-12 12:00  03-Mar-12 13:49  50.46

Football / Blackpool v Hull : Correct Score 02-Mar-12 19:45  02-Mar-12 21:43  36.58

Football / Blackpool v Hull : Over/Under 2.5 goals 02-Mar-12 19:45  02-Mar-12 21:38  19.28

Football / Laval v Lens : Correct Score 02-Mar-12 19:00  02-Mar-12 20:50  50.46

Football / Ingolstadt v Union Berlin : Correct Score 02-Mar-12 17:00  02-Mar-12 18:54  50.46

Football / Duisburg v G Furth : Correct Score 02-Mar-12 17:00  02-Mar-12 18:50  -152.83

Football / Sao Paulo v Guaratingueta : Correct Score 01-Mar-12 22:30  02-Mar-12 00:22  52.58