I See Deep Patterns

SoccerDude:      I see deep patterns.
Malcolm Crowe:   In your dreams?
                 [SoccerDude shakes his head no]
Malcolm Crowe:   While you're awake?
                 [SoccerDude nods]
Malcolm Crowe:   Deep patterns like, in games? In leagues?
SoccerDude:      Floating around like regular patterns. They don't
                 see each other. They only see what they want to
                 see. They don't know they're patterns.
Malcolm Crowe:   How often do you see them?
SoccerDude:      All the time. They're everywhere.


Nice movie quote to make my point, huh? Yes, today’s post is all about patterns. And I do see deep patterns all the time. Can you see a pattern?

Well punk…? Do you?

Sorry, I seem to be stuck in movie land at present. But as mentioned, I do see patterns. And before we go any further, this is not me looking at Rorschach tests during my therapy sessions (if you must know, I’m now fully over my alien abduction), and it’s not my failure to understand the latest crochet outline that I’ve received from Knitting Weekly. No, the patterns I’m talking about are those that may be found within football data.

So how about you? Do you look and see patterns?

Football data is a funny old thing. On the surface, it looks quite basic: there’s a home win, a draw or an away win; and there are a number of goals scored in each match. None of this appears too complicated and, if anything, is rather superficial.

But let’s dig just a little bit deeper, and see what possibilities we’re faced with. Yes, there are only three possible results in a match, but what about these questions:

• What is the percentage of home wins, draws and away wins for each league on a month-by-month basis?
• If looking at ten years of historical data, does the percentage of home wins, draws and away wins change at any point in the season? Is there a trend?
• What is the percentage of home wins, draws and away wins for each league over the season when a top four team is playing a bottom four team?
• What is the percentage of home wins, draws and away wins for each league for each month of the season when a top four team is playing a bottom four team?
• If looking at ten years of historical data, does the percentage of home wins, draws and away wins when top four face bottom four change at any point in the season?

These rather basic questions took me about thirty seconds to think up, but I’d guess that you don’t know the answers. There are also easily drawn-up questions for Unders and Overs and also for goal time stats, although these would inevitably lead to even greater proliferation than the ones I’ve just posed, and would doubtless prove to be more complex. You may also want to draw-up questions based around the half-time/full-time, win-both-halves and clean sheet markets.

So look what’s just happened. In double-quick time, we’ve found ourselves completely overloaded (swamped) with questions, and - if we’re prepared to do the donkey work - also overloaded with stats that attempt to answer these questions.

I say, "if we're prepared to do the donkey work", because these are all questions that you won’t generally find on free websites such as soccerstats.com, soccerway.com and the like. Excellent though these sites are, if you're interested in finding the answers, you'll either have to pay for them or else create the data yourself.

But why bother? Why is the standard data (league tables, goal expectation, etc) not good enough? Well, it's unlikely that the standard data will highlight any hidden patterns - and patterns are fantastic. If you are able to draw together football data and view it in a unique way (or even in a non-unique way but in a manner that the majority don't have access to), then certain patterns or trends may come to light that can be taken advantage of. With these patterns, you are then in a position to do a number of things. Value bet and/or automation are the two that most come to mind.

So question the data around you. Try and look at the things everyone has access to in a different way - and who knows, you may just stumble on to something that will make it worth your while.

___________________________________

It's early days, but two of my winners tonight in my "away-from-home" type trading method are as a result of viewing the data in a different way. I've used that different view and applied it using a couple of the methods that I highlighted in my Correct Score Overview. This method has been profitable so far throughout this season, has a defined level of risk and a defined level of profit. If you can conjure-up these kind of strategies, they can become part of your bread-and-butter betting and can really provide an uplift to your P&L:


Soccer: £115.83 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £115.83 

 

Soccer Showing 1 - 3 of 3 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Soccer / Macclesfield v Plymouth : Match Odds 28-Feb-12 19:45  28-Feb-12 21:41  14.91
Soccer / Stevenage v Huddersfield : Correct Score 28-Feb-12 19:45  28-Feb-12 21:37  50.46
Soccer / Chesterfield v Charlton : Correct Score 28-Feb-12 19:45  28-Feb-12 21:09  50.46


I really do see deep patterns.