Opposition Corner? No Worries.

The other day, I mentioned that I got hold of the MCFC Analytics data. Simon from If in doubt, call it out did likewise after seeing my last post, and he’s already put up some analysis on something that interested him.

Simon24 September 2012 22:06

One of the challenges when presented with a large dataset for the first time is just what on earth you're going to do with it that will actually add some value. I hadn't stumbled across the MCFC Analytics project until I read this post, I've also just requested my interest in the data set. I don't know what useful information I could gather from it that would help my own betting. A post I hope to write at the beginning of next month will show that I've lost more money betting on the premiership than any other sport/event. I guess by that logic it couldn't make it any worse! However, I always like a challenge and so it will be fun to see what can be done that others might find useful/interesting. I'd be very interested in seeing what you do come up with if you decide to share.

I am indeed happy to share, although I doubt my ability to come up with anything too amazing. And this is one of the problems with this kind of data. It did strike me that despite the absolute wealth of information in this nice bulky spreadsheet that MCFC and Opta have kindly provided, I’m just not sure how much value it’s going to prove to be to an ordinary punter like myself.

The reason I say that is because, unless it’s data that we can readily lay our hands on all the time (like the football-data), then we can only look backwards in time and see what happened last year. We can’t use this data to compare it with what’s happening this year (unless you’re prepared to pay Opta for the privilege) and so we’re unable to spot any trends that are happening right this very moment – and take advantage of them. Having said all that, I still think it’s worthwhile having the data, and it’s still early days so I may well find some decent nuggets of information hidden away.

Actually, there are two things I've found with the data so far. The first is that it appears to be inaccurate! Yes, I've gone through it three or four times and there does seem to be some data missing (although I haven't worked out where). I performed a quick SUMIF on Arsenal's goal count and it came up with the answer of 73. This puzzled me as I was only looking at this recently and several sources have last years goals for Arsenal at 74. Hmm, I dug a bit deeper by checking other team's goal counts and they all come up short. There's the possibility that I've done something wrong of course, but I did just filter the data from within Excel and manually count Arsenal's goals. Still 73. Not very encouraging.

Anyway, regardless of that, it's still possible to glean interesting bits and bobs out of the data. For example, I have already found the answer (for last season at least) to a question that’s long been in my mind. That question was: “How many goals are scored as a direct result of a corner-kick?”

You’ll probably already have some idea of the answer to that question from the title of my post. Yes, surprisingly, corner-kicks are not as effective or as dangerous as most people seem to think they are. Take Aston Villa as the standout example. According to this Opta data for last season, Aston Villa had 218 corners across their 38 matches, and they managed to score exactly no goals from any of them. That’s right. You heard me. Zero goals. They didn’t manage to convert a single corner into a goal. Quite incredible, isn’t it? And if I’m honest, I do slightly doubt the validity of the data that I’ve gleaned from the spreadsheet on this point - especially with the first set of omissions I have mentioned.

However, what makes me think that I have gleaned it correctly is that the other teams in the Premier League did fare somewhat better – although as mentioned, perhaps not as well as one might imagine. Newcastle were the next worst at converting corners into goals, only managing two goals, which equates to a 3.92% conversion rate.

Below is my rather basic analysis, but I'll dig around a bit more and see if I can get deeper into the numbers:

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Most Expensive Beer In The World:
I found this mildly amusing. A player getting fined 100,000 Euros for opening a can of beer. Now that's what I call hard punishment:

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Ryder Cup:
I'm not really much of a golfer but I do enjoy watching golf on TV and I am having a dabble on the Ryder Cup this year. I'll be running some straight bets, possibly with a view to trading-out, but we'll see how they go.

Wish me luck!