Without any real notion of what I was going to do with it, I requested and have subsequently acquired the MCFC Analytics data for last season. For those of you that don't know, this includes every bit of Opta data for every Premier League match played last season, which amounts to quite a hefty volume of data (8.2Megs).
Looking through the list of logged events, I find myself somewhat overwhelmed by the different stats that have been recorded. Of course we have things like goals, own goals, shots on target, that kind of thing (indeed all the things we're used to having), but this data goes well beyond that.
Blocked shots, chance conversion/goals-to-shot ratio, shooting accuracy, pattern of play for goals/attempts, goal assists, second assist/key passes, chances created, passes, pass completion, dribbes/take-ons, tackles, clearances, blocks, interceptions, duels, fouls, goalkeeper catches, punches, drops, and on and on it goes.
Not only that, most of these stats are then subdivided further into categories of even finer granularity. For example, passes are subdivided into:
Chipped pass, headed pass, launch, cross, flick-on, pull-back, lay-off, through ball, etc
... and then divided again into length of pass: short/long, short medium/log
Wow, quite an impressive array of information. And now that I have my hands on it, I feel obliged to do something with it and try and analyse this data in a way that will prove helpful and beneficial to me. The only thing is, I haven't quite worked out how I'm going to do that. Yet.
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I realise that with the Hillsborough commemorations, the Evra-Suarez handshake was reduced down to mere sub-text, but it was nonetheless interesting to note how Luis Suarez - the obvious love child of Freddie Mercury and Basil Brush; a man who can almost literally be knocked down with a feather - had finally been inveigled into shaking hands with Patrice Evra.
I suppose it's good that they've finally managed to put the whole sorry saga to bed and move on but, in my view, the whole plastic "staging" of this handshake has only helped render the pre-match handshake routine even more irrelevant than it already is. The whole concept of the pre-match handshake was flawed from the start - some executive's "vision" of a brighter future for football, and of course while high-profile failures such as this are riding high in the press, those in-charge will ride out any storm to avoid losing face... but I wouldn't be surprised if this lame and meaningless idea is quietly dropped at some time in the future. Perhaps when people are less likely to notice.
And don't get me started on the whole John Terry thing. Taking 11 months to get off their arses to hold a hearing that has been made pointless and futile by the court hearing... Well it's beyond the pale.
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Onto actual betting, my trading P/L from friday and over the weekend is below. I've also started my straight betting now, but as I'm betting across various different bookies, I'll just report how this is going in the more traditional way.
Fink Tank:
Nothing too amazing for my Fink Tank selections. Three wins and three losses for a very small profit. Current stats are:
+1.66pts
ROI: 12.75%
My Bets:
Excellent start for these so far.
+5.14pts
ROI: 42.83%
ROC: 11.42%
Trading:
Football: £202.15 | Tote: | Total P&L: £202.15
Football Showing 1 - 17 of 17 markets
Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Man City v Arsenal : Over/Under 2.5 Goals 23-Sep-12 16:00 23-Sep-12 18:00 29.64
Football / Man City v Arsenal : Correct Score 23-Sep-12 16:00 23-Sep-12 17:59 31.23
Football / Man City v Arsenal : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 23-Sep-12 16:00 23-Sep-12 17:42 3.09
Football / Liverpool v Man Utd : Correct Score 23-Sep-12 13:30 23-Sep-12 15:27 32.45
Football / Liverpool v Man Utd : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 23-Sep-12 13:30 23-Sep-12 15:26 3.58
Football / Liverpool v Man Utd : Over/Under 2.5 Goals 23-Sep-12 13:30 23-Sep-12 15:09 9.88
Football / Juventus v Chievo : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 22-Sep-12 19:45 22-Sep-12 21:15 61.94
Football / Birmingham v Barnsley : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 22-Sep-12 17:20 22-Sep-12 18:52 4.47
Football / Birmingham v Barnsley : Over/Under 2.5 Goals 22-Sep-12 17:20 22-Sep-12 18:39 -120.57
Football / Birmingham v Barnsley : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 22-Sep-12 17:20 22-Sep-12 18:33 2.98
Football / Swansea v Everton : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 22-Sep-12 12:45 22-Sep-12 14:41 5.21
Football / Swansea v Everton : Correct Score 22-Sep-12 12:45 22-Sep-12 14:39 27.42
Football / Swansea v Everton : Over/Under 2.5 Goals 22-Sep-12 12:45 22-Sep-12 14:26 23.41
Football / Blackburn v Middlesbrough : Correct Score 21-Sep-12 19:45 21-Sep-12 21:38 36.65
Football / Blackburn v Middlesbrough : Over/Under 2.5 Goals 21-Sep-12 19:45 21-Sep-12 21:33 33.41
Football / Union Berlin v FC Koln : Correct Score 21-Sep-12 17:00 21-Sep-12 18:51 14.51
Football / Union Berlin v FC Koln : Match Odds 21-Sep-12 17:00 21-Sep-12 18:51 2.85
Dude - your returns are excellent - all winners - do you ever have any losing trades or do you just post the winning ones?
ReplyDeletei think shaking hands is all part of the sport. to do away with it is ridiculous.
ReplyDeleteHi G
ReplyDeleteI do have losing trades. Indeed, if you look properly in the one I've just posted, you'll see a £120 loss in amongst there. Also, if you look through past entries, you'll see that I do post up my losses too.
For example: http://footytradingposts.blogspot.co.uk/2012/03/what-stunner.html
Hi Al
ReplyDeleteI don't say how you can see that the pre-match handshake is "all part of the sport". It was brought in - as an edict - only four years ago. The players are TOLD to shake hands.
I'm not saying players shouldn't shake hands if they want to. And of course players do shake hands at the end of the match, which is as it should be. Each team has fought the good fight, and out of respect, not through being dictated to, they like to shake hands with one another.
My view is that these are all adults. Let them be the ones to decide whether they want to shake hands or not.
Fair do's dude - should be wearing my glasses when i read this - by the way for the record I'm just favouring Sir Cassini's as the No.1 blog around..........:)only just mind
ReplyDeleteOne of the challenges when presented with a large dataset for the first time is just what on earth you're going to do with it that will actually add some value. I hadn't stumbled across the MCFC Analytics project until I read this post, I've also just requested my interest in the data set. I don't know what useful information I could gather from it that would help my own betting. A post I hope to write at the beginning of next month will show that I've lost more money betting on the premiership than any other sport/event. I guess by that logic it couldn't make it any worse! However, I always like a challenge and so it will be fun to see what can be done that others might find useful/interesting. I'd be very interested in seeing what you do come up with if you decide to share.
ReplyDeleteAs for the hand shakes I agree it seems a little trivial and forcing footballers to do it surely defeats the whole purpose of a handshake in the first place.