Double double toil and trouble

Round about the caldron go;
In the poison’d entrails throw.—
Toad, that under cold stone,
Days and nights has thirty-one;
Swelter’d venom sleeping got,
Boil thou first i’ the charmed pot!



Hope you enjoyed my little bit of Macbeth there, but I thought it appropriate after Dave's comment on my last post:


gundulf14 September 2012 20:35
Get the cauldron bubbling, Eddie!

I must admit to being a bit lazy there - ie I did feck all research to back it up (but then, you knew / suspected that!) 

But, you have done the work for me. The figure you quote of 1.73 is, in truth, a little lower than I usually am able to lay at in these situations - it's generally in the 1.8 to 1.9 region, depending on the team. 

I wouldn't suggest for one moment that anyone should get involved in a trade like this without regard to who is playing, in what competition and at what stage of the season. Neither would I suggest it as a trade to necessarily let run to its conclusion, although your research suggests that you could with the home sides in the Prem if not the away side.

However, raw data researched or not, my own records show my forays into this area to have been profitable to a degree that makes it more than a worthwhile trade to enter, which was really my point.

I'll let you keep your head mate, no offence taken. I'll be more selective with my throw away lines in future, I promise!

I suppose the interesting thing about all this is that, if straight betting, then grabbing all the stats you can lay your hands is probably the best way forward as they can help to point you in the right direction. They can tell you if an idea is profitable or not or whether you have an edge or not.

But if you're trading... well that's a different matter. This is a well-worn subject so I won't bang on about it too much, but the fact that Dave say's he's profitable using this approach is cast-iron proof that when you're trading, you can beat the stats. Team A are terrible away from home, so it may not be wise to back them when they're away. Okay, but can I still make money when I break the game down into segments? Do the stats still hold true within each segment or do they become largely meaningless?

Maybe team A is indeed crap away from home, but maybe they're not fit enough and run out of steam during the second-half. So maybe I can back 0-0 for the first ten minutes and make a profit. Maybe I can lay the home team for a short period and make some money. Maybe I can lay home/home and make some money.

The stats, on the face of it, say Dave is wrong and that he shouldn't touch AU at 3-0 during half-time. But when trading he can beat the odds because he always has the option to change his trade or close it altogether.

Nothing wrong with straight betting of course, and I've started my own little straight betting approach this season, but trading offers more flexibility and more chances of taking advantage of opportunities as they arise.

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I'll try and post a bit again later, as I'm a bit short of time at the moment.