A bit more LTD

Comments from my last post included this from Puppyguts:

if you were going to LTD at HT why not wait until the 60-70 min? if a goal is scored early in the 2nd half the profit you gain is rarely satisfying, so why bother? there is nothing worse than firing off a draw lay at HT them having to witness the odds tank 10 mins later. overall you would probably make a better profit backing the draw and laying it off instead.

personally i lay the draw as one of my sole strategies and i find it easy to turn a profit, low draw odds get gubbed everyday

There are a couple of points here that need addressing. First, Puppyguts confusingly states, “personally i lay the draw as one of my sole strategies”. Not sure if he means it’s one of his strategies or its his sole strategy. If it’s the latter, then that should sound the alarm bells.

So what’s the problems only having one strategy? Well, if the only tool in your box is a hammer, there’s a danger that everything starts to look like a nail. In other words, if your only strategy is LTD, then every game is going to seem like a candidate, regardless of whether it’s a good fit for that strat or not.

The second thing that Puppyguts mentions is that it’s best to lay the draw at 60-70 minutes as “low draw odds get gubbed everyday”. Well, this is worth checking, isn’t it? I’m sure low draw odds do get gubbed – but the real question is, do they get gubbed enough for us to profit over the long term?

I took a quick look at the Premier League last season. There were 130 matches that were a draw at 60 minutes, and 75 of those were not draws at full-time. That equates to lay odds of 2.36. And for 70 minutes? Well there were 110 matches that were a draw at 70 minutes, but only 54 of those were not draws at full-time. This is fair lay odds of 1.96

Now it obviously depends on individual matches, but I'd say these odds are a pretty accurate reflection of the lay odds on offer for the average match. And if this an an accurate reflection, then there is no value there and no long-term profit to be had.

ironypirate seems to agree with me:

Interesting post, Eddie and I agree with your points. I think you need to excuse those in the chat room who regularly employ this strategy - most just seeing a 0-0 game and thinking it's a perfect candidate. A lot are reformed gamblers who have moved to trading to try and right their wrongs. LTD seems to me to be a necessary step that all those that make the journey across need to go through as it stands on the precipice between being a punt and a trade.

To me, every time I LTD (and I do it less and less) it still feels like a gamble. I feel less in control which is odd I suppose given that a goal or goals generally make or break a trade no matter what market you're dabbling in. Even discounting the historical data and in play stats, like you, I just don't think there is much value to be had in the price movements especially when prices are influenced by more than one factor - dog scoring / favourite scoring / red cards etc etc. Unless of course you LTD in the 85+ minute hoping for a last gasp winner as was the case at Newcastle on Sunday. But then it is just a punt in my eyes, even if the liability is low enough to justify punting in this manner.

I suppose I should point-out that I don't think there's anything inherently wrong with laying the draw. Like any other market or any other strategy, when used correctly (the right tool for the right job), it can work beautifully - and there are undoubtedly times when it is absolutely the right thing to do.

The problem, as I see it, is to rely on laying the draw over the long-term without any definable edge.

... But then again that's a problem on any market, isn't it? Do you have an edge or not?