Betfair Bullsh*t

Don't know if any of you have yet received Betfair's football booklet through the post, but I got mine today. There's not a great deal of any worth or interest in there, but this article did catch my eye:


Game of two halves
They say the table never lies but backing the team that’s top at Christmas is a risky strategy

People say that the first meaningful Premier League table is the one at the end of the year. In 2008 Rafael Benitiz infamously predicted that if Liverpool were taop at Christmas they would have an 80 per cent possibility of ending the season as champions. They were and they didn’t. Other teams have topped the table at Christmas and fallen away when the going get tough and squads get exposed. There is one team however that seems to get stronger as they season progresses. It’s fair to say that Man Utd have completely dominated the Premier League, winning 12 of the 20 titles. Seven of these were won when another team topped the table at Christmas.

If you really want to use the Christmas table as a prescient guide, look to the bottom of the league. Of the 20 teams that have propped up the league while tucking into their Christmas dinner, only one – West Brom in 2004/05 – has gone on to escape relegation.


So, the message seems to be clear. Don't bother backing the team who's top of the Premier League at Christmas as, chances are, they won't be there at the end of the season in May. This did interest me so I thought I would take a closer look. Here's a little table:

I suppose the thing about statistics is that it's possible to pick and choose the bits of information that best suit the point we want to make (I'm reluctant to use the phrase "cherry picking" for obvious reasons). However, personally, I think that the first ten years of this table above are less relevant than the last ten years. The make-up of the Premier League has changed in my view. The top teams are now even better, and the separation between them and the others has grown. You may disagree. However, if this is indeed accepted, then perhaps we should just look at how well the top team has performed over the last ten years when top at Christmas.

Top at Christmas and win the Premier League = 6/10

So, 60% of the time over the last ten years, the top team at Christmas has prevailed. That equates to decimal odds of 1.66. We could therefore say that, if the team who is top at Christmas are greater than 1.66 at that stage, then there could possibly be some value to be had.

This is effectively the opposite of what Betfair are telling us in their little booklet.

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So, the first game of the new season was on the goggle-box tonight. I again took it fairy steady but my profit is slowly creeping up (without my trying to make it do so). Three matches completed in the last five days and I've made £130. I'm not too dissatisfied with that.



Football: £54.84 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £54.84

 

Football Showing 1 - 3 of 3 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Cardiff v Huddersfield : Over/Under 2.5 goals 17-Aug-12 19:45  17-Aug-12 21:40  11.59
Football / Cardiff v Huddersfield : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 17-Aug-12 19:45  17-Aug-12 21:40  4.68
Football / Cardiff v Huddersfield : Correct Score 17-Aug-12 19:45  17-Aug-12 21:39  38.57