Friday, 23 November 2012

Bring on the hangdog Messiah

So here we are again. A London club struggling at the bottom of the Premier League. A team that people generally seem to agree really don't belong in that position in the table, that the quality of their players should really be sufficient to lift them up to a reasonable position.

Right, kick out the useless twat of a manager, the perennial under-achiever, and in his place bring forth the guy next door. Yes, let the wiley old multi-chinned persuader be the new man for the job. He may not have too many tactical weapons in his little footballing toolbox, but when it comes to assuaging the feelings and boosting the egos of all those precious, highly-paid superstars, there is no one to surpass him.

As I write, Redknapp is 1.02 to back in the next manager's market and it appears a cast-iron certainty that he will indeed be the next QPR manager. At those odds, of course, he just has to be layed - and layed him I have at a financial risk that's almost not worth worrying about. Any little doubt tomorrow will provide a green opportunity, whilst if he is appointed tomorrow, it is of little consequence.

QPR have Man Utd away in their next match, which by all common reason should be a walk in the park for Utd. However, if Redknapp is appointed over the next day or two, then their Tuesday match away to Sunderland and/or their next home match against Villa tomorrow week could see the usual "new manager bounce" - which, with Redknapp's excellent man-manager skills, could have quite a pronounced effect.

Just something to think about and consider.


My little losing streak continues at the moment. I'm busy right now working on my bots again, so can't say I'm fully-focused on my normal line of business - but it's not that difficult and really I've no excuse for the bad little run I've been experiencing lately. This is my performance over the last seven days. Not great, is it?

Cricket: £27.13 | Football: -£133.42 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  -£106.29 


Football Showing 1 - 20 of 61 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Fortuna Dusseldorf v Hamburg : Over/Under 2.5 Goals 23-Nov-12 19:30  23-Nov-12 21:28  7.57
Football / Fortuna Dusseldorf v Hamburg : Correct Score 23-Nov-12 19:30  23-Nov-12 21:28  0.88
Football / Fortuna Dusseldorf v Hamburg : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 23-Nov-12 19:30  23-Nov-12 20:57  9.56
Football / Le Mans v Guingamp : Match Odds 23-Nov-12 17:45  23-Nov-12 19:39  -3.00
Football / Academica v Plzen : Over/Under 2.5 Goals 22-Nov-12 20:05  22-Nov-12 21:59  -0.85
Football / Mgladbach v A.E.L. : Over/Under 2.5 Goals 22-Nov-12 20:05  22-Nov-12 21:58  -3.86
Football / Marseille v Fenerbahce : Over/Under 2.5 Goals 22-Nov-12 20:05  22-Nov-12 21:58  1.37
Football / Steaua Bucharest v Stuttgart : Match Odds 22-Nov-12 20:05  22-Nov-12 21:56  -6.00
Football / Benfica B v Covilha : Over/Under 2.5 Goals 22-Nov-12 20:00  22-Nov-12 21:54  2.22
Football / Liverpool v Young Boys : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 22-Nov-12 20:05  22-Nov-12 21:53  1.67
Football / Liverpool v Young Boys : Over/Under 2.5 Goals 22-Nov-12 20:05  22-Nov-12 21:36  16.41
Football / Lazio v Tottenham : Correct Score 22-Nov-12 18:00  22-Nov-12 19:53  16.52
Football / Lazio v Tottenham : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 22-Nov-12 18:00  22-Nov-12 19:53  4.34
Football / Ajax v Dortmund : Match Odds 21-Nov-12 19:45  21-Nov-12 21:42  -4.00
Football / Man City v Real Madrid : Correct Score 21-Nov-12 19:45  21-Nov-12 21:39  33.11
Football / Dinamo Kiev v Paris St-G : Over/Under 2.5 Goals 21-Nov-12 19:45  21-Nov-12 21:38  1.35
Football / Schalke v Olympiakos : Over/Under 2.5 Goals 21-Nov-12 19:45  21-Nov-12 21:38  -4.04
Football / Arsenal v Montpellier : Correct Score 21-Nov-12 19:45  21-Nov-12 21:36  12.82
Football / Arsenal v Montpellier : Over/Under 2.5 Goals 21-Nov-12 19:45  21-Nov-12 21:36  -2.08
Football / Anderlecht v AC Milan : Over/Under 2.5 Goals 21-Nov-12 19:45  21-Nov-12 21:18  -1.60

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I've had a couple of comments about my ratings posts, asking if I could finish them up and not leave everyone hanging. There are indeed a few more posts due on this subject. The first concerns how to weight Poisson properly, the second is how to come up with the a more detailed method of discerning each team's goal expectation. I did briefly mention Maximum Likelihood Estimation (or MLE), and alluded to the fact that I may - at some point - put up a post explaining all this.

Well, I suppose I'll have to get off my backside and scrawl something down about these things. If you'd be good enough to keep reading then I promise that I will indeed get around to posting on these subjects.

I don't, as yet, have anything in the can, so to speak, but given a bit of concentration and a clear run, I'm sure it won't take me too long to knock something out.

Do bear with me.


Oh, by the way. I've just hit the 70,000 mark, which I'm very pleased with. Thanks to you lot.

1 comment:

  1. you need to buck up your ideas son, the premiership is on a roll this year, every weekend a profitable one without much effort!!


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