Trading Strategies

What are your trading strategies? What markets do you tend towards? What works for you and what doesn't?

This last question is very important, and one that you may not be able to fully answer unless you keep accurate records of all your bets. For myself, I record every bet/trade/scalp that I make, and my spreadsheet automatically details what bets on what markets I am profitable in and those that I am not. This then tells me which areas to concentrate on and which to avoid.

Before I had this spreadsheet, I mistakenly thought I was profitable in one area, but the reality was the complete opposite. If you presently do not record all your betting activity, then I would urge you to do so.

As you've probably seen from my daily P/Ls, I tend to concentrate on the Under/Over markets and the Match Odds. These have proved happy hunting grounds for me, and I'm comfortable that I can make these markets pay while trading in-play. You must do the same. Be selective, work hard and hopefully we can all go on a profitable ride together.

In the next few entries, if I'm not betting, I'll post-up some basic ideas and strategies that you may (or may not) want to look at. Either way, it may trigger some ideas in your head and prove helpful.

Trading Methodology

Okay, as mentioned before, I find myself stuck in a hotel on Tuesday and Wednesday nights, and so tend to refrain from any footy trading. As I write, there are Carling Cup games being played (Liverpool and Cardiff winning their respective games), but I keep my powder dry until I know I can trade properly.

What do I mean by trading properly? Well, that means being able to green/red-up any outstanding position with a reliable connection into Betfair. Even though my connection via my phone is generally stable, I've been bitten before where I've been locked out by a dropped connection.

So, during the absence of any trading, perhaps we can talk about methodology. First-off, I work-up my own stats for in-play betting. This involves things like:

• Percentage of games with a goal in the second-half when the first-half is goalless.
• Percentage of games with a goal in the second-half when the first-half has one goal/two goals.
• Average time for a second goal to be scored after a first goal is scored.
• Percentage of games that finish > 2.5 goals after one goal is scored in the first-half.
• Percentage of games where the away team lead at half-time and go on to win/do not win.
• Average goal time for the home team
• Average goal time for the away team
• etc.

All the types of stat as above help enormously when making instant decisions while trading in-play. I also work-up my own stats for:

• Goal Supremacy
• ELO Ratings
• Poisson
• Rate Form
• Score Ability
• Game Form
• Power Ratings
• Dyads and Triads

If you're not familiar with any of these then you should be able to find them by Googling them. These stats are also beneficial. These are not used in isolation, but rather used as aids during the game to help assess what is likely to happen in a game. More often than not, these stats assist in making a successful trade.

In short, arm yourself with as much weaponry as you can to help you make the right decisions at the right time.

It's Christmas!

Well, it is in my house. My wife (backed-up by my kids) has insisted that we get all the Christmas decorations down from the loft, and our tree is already proudly standing in our lounge, all lights ablaze.

Another straightforward night of trading. Bit rushed for time at the present, so I'll post-up a more detailed entry tomorrow.





Football: £63.53 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £63.53 

 

Football Showing 1 - 4 of 4 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Charlton v Huddersfield : Correct Score 28-Nov-11 19:45  28-Nov-11 21:46  20.68
Football / Charlton v Huddersfield : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 28-Nov-11 19:45  28-Nov-11 21:42  6.02
Football / Charlton v Huddersfield : Over/Under 2.5 goals 28-Nov-11 19:45  28-Nov-11 21:42  26.29
Football / Fortuna Dusseldorf v G Furth : Over/Under 2.5 goals 28-Nov-11 19:15  28-Nov-11 20:37  10.54

Gary Speed

Like everyone else today, feel shocked by the news of Gary Speed. Three or four years ago, I tried to get my son interested in football by taking him to a match at the Valley between Charlton and Sheffield Utd. Gary Speed was playing and my son managed to get his autograph. Seems incredible that someone who, on the surface, seemed to have it all felt he was so unhappy that he would take such drastic action.

In the circumstances, it feels vulgar to talk about my day today, but everything went well, betting-wise. Used a variety of scalping and some basic trading techniques and it all panned out okay.


Football: £118.48 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £118.48 

 

Football Showing 1 - 7 of 7 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / AC Milan v Chievo : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 27-Nov-11 19:45  27-Nov-11 21:38  20.37
Football / AC Milan v Chievo : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 27-Nov-11 19:45  27-Nov-11 20:32  1.35
Football / Liverpool v Man City : Over/Under 2.5 goals 27-Nov-11 16:00  27-Nov-11 17:56  20.70
Football / Liverpool v Man City : Correct Score 27-Nov-11 16:00  27-Nov-11 17:55  26.64
Football / Swansea v Aston Villa : Correct Score 27-Nov-11 13:30  27-Nov-11 15:32  21.18
Football / Swansea v Aston Villa : Over/Under 2.5 goals 27-Nov-11 13:30  27-Nov-11 15:28  19.61
Football / Swansea v Aston Villa : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 27-Nov-11 13:30  27-Nov-11 15:28  8.63

Betfair Down (again)

Aaargh! Bastards!

Betfair down YET again. This is infuriating.
By all accounts (from other's reports) I have even been lucky to be able to login without any real problems into the Stoke v Blackburn game. A few seconds before half-time, I was unable to green-up an open position, but after quickly logging-in to Betfair Lite (always worth keeping a link for this handy), I was able to green-up. After half-time, I was able to carry-on without any further problems.

And that's where it's ended, I'm afraid. I was going to attack the Bundesliga games but cannot get on any of them. Even if I could, the Betfair Live Video page is also down, and so I cannot watch any match. This is incredibly piss-poor. Betfair are doing all they can to annoy everyone, and suck the last bit of goodwill their customers have for the site.

I would love to go over to Betdaq but, although their horse racing liquidity has improved this year, the football events are still a joke. Ho hum.

No more betting for me today.
 

Soccer: £84.60 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £84.60 

 

Soccer Showing 1 - 3 of 3 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Soccer / Stoke v Blackburn : Correct Score 26-Nov-11 12:45  26-Nov-11 14:39  29.30
Soccer / Stoke v Blackburn : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 26-Nov-11 12:45  26-Nov-11 14:29  3.91
Soccer / Stoke v Blackburn : Over/Under 2.5 goals 26-Nov-11 12:45  26-Nov-11 14:15  51.39

Patience is the Key

Tonight's profit is entirely from scalping. Many people assume scalping is not worth the trouble, or perhaps is too risky or time-consuming. But over the course of three hours, this amounts to an hourly rate of nearly £19 per hour, which is getting on for £36,000 per annum.

This is well above the national average wage, and therefore cannot be sniffed at!





Soccer: £56.56 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £56.56 

 

Soccer Showing 1 - 6 of 6 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Soccer / Udinese v Roma : Correct Score 25-Nov-11 19:45  25-Nov-11 21:47  12.38
Soccer / Udinese v Roma : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 25-Nov-11 19:45  25-Nov-11 21:41  3.20
Soccer / FC Koln v Mgladbach : Correct Score 25-Nov-11 19:30  25-Nov-11 21:23  11.56
Soccer / FC Koln v Mgladbach : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 25-Nov-11 19:30  25-Nov-11 21:21  6.02
Soccer / FC Koln v Mgladbach : Over/Under 2.5 goals 25-Nov-11 19:30  25-Nov-11 20:37  14.47
Soccer / FSV Frankfurt v Paderborn : Match Odds 25-Nov-11 17:00  25-Nov-11 18:49  8.93

An Explanation

I suppose I should explain why you haven't seen me bet anything on the Champions League matches this midweek. Surely there were lots of opportunities to attack?

Well, maybe so. But unlike many Betfarians, I am not a full-time bettor. I work Monday to Friday as a contract software developer - working away from home on Tuesday and Wednesday , and coming back home on Thursday. Staying in a hotel on Tuesday and Wednesday nights means that I have no reliable internet connection.

There is a WiFi connection available in the hotel, but it's piss poor and incredibly slow. This then leaves my mobile to act as a modem, which again is slow and inconsistent.
This means that my betting will tend to be only from Thurday evening to Monday evening, with nothing in-between.

Coming home this evening, I had time to play with my new smartphone that had arrived whilst I was away (it's great fun!), and then I just jumped on the last twenty minutes of the Italian Cup game between Cagliari and Sienna. Small profit but no dramas and it's always nice to earn something when I get home. Hopefully I'll have something a bit more "meaty" for you all tomorrow.


Football: £18.81 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £18.81 

 

Football Showing 1 - 1 of 1 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Cagliari v Siena : Match Odds 24-Nov-11 20:15  24-Nov-11 22:09  18.81