Trading Methodology

Okay, as mentioned before, I find myself stuck in a hotel on Tuesday and Wednesday nights, and so tend to refrain from any footy trading. As I write, there are Carling Cup games being played (Liverpool and Cardiff winning their respective games), but I keep my powder dry until I know I can trade properly.

What do I mean by trading properly? Well, that means being able to green/red-up any outstanding position with a reliable connection into Betfair. Even though my connection via my phone is generally stable, I've been bitten before where I've been locked out by a dropped connection.

So, during the absence of any trading, perhaps we can talk about methodology. First-off, I work-up my own stats for in-play betting. This involves things like:

• Percentage of games with a goal in the second-half when the first-half is goalless.
• Percentage of games with a goal in the second-half when the first-half has one goal/two goals.
• Average time for a second goal to be scored after a first goal is scored.
• Percentage of games that finish > 2.5 goals after one goal is scored in the first-half.
• Percentage of games where the away team lead at half-time and go on to win/do not win.
• Average goal time for the home team
• Average goal time for the away team
• etc.

All the types of stat as above help enormously when making instant decisions while trading in-play. I also work-up my own stats for:

• Goal Supremacy
• ELO Ratings
• Poisson
• Rate Form
• Score Ability
• Game Form
• Power Ratings
• Dyads and Triads

If you're not familiar with any of these then you should be able to find them by Googling them. These stats are also beneficial. These are not used in isolation, but rather used as aids during the game to help assess what is likely to happen in a game. More often than not, these stats assist in making a successful trade.

In short, arm yourself with as much weaponry as you can to help you make the right decisions at the right time.