Watching Brief

Well it was supposed to be. Arrived back from Milan this afternoon, which was something of a shame as I left temperatures in the 30s behind and had a fabulous time. Great City.

This evening, I settled down to watch the Croatia v Spain match. I had decided before sitting dowin that, being a little tired from my journey, that I would not trade or bet tonight - instead I would just settle for a watching brief and enjoy the match simply as a fan.

Well, you know me, I can't resist can I. About halfway through the first half, I figured that Italy had to score and so I laid 0-0. However, my bet wasn't matched at the odds I was looking for before Italy scored and so I left that game alone at that point. Then after Italy had scored, I thought to myself that Croatia have to score or else they are out, and so I laid 0-0 in the Spain match at 3s. This of course looked to be going pear-shaped as Spain were holding the ball well, even if they were doing little with it. Croatia had to bring more men forward, but I'd say I was lucky that Spain scored as it could (and probably should) have finished goalless.

So no trading tonight, just your run-of-the-mill loser-type betting which just happen to turn out okay. Doesn't feel great even though I won.

The rest of my P/L tonight is from some of the lay dutch that has already come home to roost. I'm undecided at the moment how long I will let the rest remain in place. Presently, the stuff that's left is showing -0.94p in the red, which is not particularly great.


Football: £128.97 | Tote: | Total P&L: £128.97



Football Showing 1 - 2 of 2 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Croatia v Spain : Correct Score 18-Jun-12 19:45 18-Jun-12 21:39 100.93
Football / Euro 2012 : Winner 2012 08-Jun-12 17:00 17-Jun-12 21:37 28.04

You're Breaking Up, You're Breaking Up!

I'm not referring to my mental state, you'll be pleased to hear, but a growing confidence in my phone's internet connection, which has been absolutely splendid here in my hotel over the last couple of nights. Unfortunately and foolishly this has led me to inadvertently lower my caution levels when trading away from home.

The Under/Over loss below was just a straight trade that didn't work out. I've no quibbles with that as that's the deal on those kind of things, but the loss on the correct score was entirely avoidable as I lost my connection at a vital time. The screen froze for several minutes, and I just had to watch helplessly as Van Persie picked up the ball outside the box, run towards it and slot home with aplomb. Fucking Gooner bastard.

I did manage to reduce some of this loss down from £120 to £83, and so this has left me with an overall loss tonight of around £52. Not too bad when I consider how bad it could have been, but I'm now suitably chastened and won't be running the same kind of trades again when holed up in my hotel. I did actually know this already, but as mentioned before, sometimes I need to learn the same lesson more than once.

I probably won't get home tomorrow night for the first match 5:00pm (Italy v Croatia), but I am hoping to be back and ready to trade the 7:45pm game between Spain and Ireland.


Football: -£52.51 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  -£52.51

 

Football Showing 1 - 4 of 4 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Netherlands v Germany : Correct Score 13-Jun-12 19:45  13-Jun-12 21:48  -83.46
Football / Netherlands v Germany : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 13-Jun-12 19:45  13-Jun-12 21:45  7.26
Football / Netherlands v Germany : Over/Under 2.5 goals 13-Jun-12 19:45  13-Jun-12 21:16  -20.64
Football / Denmark v Portugal : Correct Score 13-Jun-12 17:00  13-Jun-12 18:53  44.33

Knowing Me, Knowing Eu (ro)

I've been a bit Alan Partridge tonight. After work, I bought a Domino's Pizza the size of a crop circle, a chocolate bar of fruit and nut the dimensions of a wardrobe and a bottle of the cheapest Port ever created from Aldi's.

After having put on a stone-and-a-half consuming my gartantuan pizza, I feel bloated and sick, have chocolate smeared across my face and am royally shitfaced drinking the Port in my hotel room whilst watching and trading this evening's matches. My apologies for being a sad wanker.

I did, however, have a half-decent connection on my laptop via my phone this evening, and so successfully traded the second-half of the Greece/Czech game, which was pleasing. Later, my connection remained decent and, looking at the attacking nature of both Russia and Poland, I layed the draw during an excellent and entertaining match, traded out for £30 when Russia scored, then when Poland scored, I steadily scalped the draw down until full-time. I increased my caution levels due to my unreliable connection, but it all worked out well this evening.


Football: £106.60 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £106.60

 

Football Showing 1 - 2 of 2 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Poland v Russia : Match Odds 12-Jun-12 19:45  12-Jun-12 21:38  51.55
Football / Greece v Czech Republic : Correct Score 12-Jun-12 17:00  12-Jun-12 18:52  55.05

England Expects...

... very little, I'm afraid.

Rather uninspiring England performance, and a stunningly uninspiring night of trading also. The trading was especially frustrating as I was heading for a good night indeed but was caught-out by the quick reply by the Ukraines from Sweden's opener. I finished up pretty much all square but should have been about £200 up.


I suppose I should be pleased that I've come away from the night with no overall red, but it's always a little disheartening when a slow, steady build-up of profit is quickly wiped-out.

Football: £5.26 | Tennis: £38.37 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £43.63

 

Football Showing 1 - 8 of 8 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Ukraine v Sweden : Correct Score 11-Jun-12 19:45  11-Jun-12 21:45  126.34
Football / Ukraine v Sweden : Match Odds 11-Jun-12 19:45  11-Jun-12 21:41  -194.40
Football / Ukraine v Sweden : Over/Under 2.5 goals 11-Jun-12 19:45  11-Jun-12 21:08  3.68
Football / Ukraine v Sweden : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 11-Jun-12 19:45  11-Jun-12 21:01  15.24
Football / France v England : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 11-Jun-12 17:00  11-Jun-12 18:55  0.79
Football / France v England : Over/Under 2.5 goals 11-Jun-12 17:00  11-Jun-12 18:54  6.58
Football / France v England : Correct Score 11-Jun-12 17:00  11-Jun-12 18:53  43.35
Football / France v England : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 11-Jun-12 17:00  11-Jun-12 17:40  3.68

________________________________________

I received this comment today:

Anonymous11 June 2012 15:23
Very nice results you got there. I've been following your blog with great interest. I know a trader typically won't post something about his strategy but do you think you could post something about staking. It would be very interesting to know what kind of stakes you use to achieve your results.


Greetings from Germany

It's nice to know there are people enjoying the blog from other countries, so thanks for reading. In answer to the question, I generally don't trade with that much money. My maximum exposure is generally not more than £300 and is usually only £200. Throughout the Euros, for example, I have been using £200 stakes for my trades and scalps.

Previously I tended to expose a set percentage of my bank, but for some reason I left that idea behind quite some time ago and nowadays tend to just stick to a set amount. This is probably because, for me, trading is still only a hobby and nothing more. I'm not looking for untold riches via this route (mainly because I don't think I'm good enough) and so I'm happy just to plod along in my own little way.

________________________________________

One other comment I received was this:

Anonymous11 June 2012 12:07
Hi Eddie,
Did you finally write the post about the calculation of goal expectancy values? I couldn't find it. Thanks

Erm... well, it's like this...

The truth is that I have "largely" written this post, but I just never got round to actually posting it. It's 95% there but just needs me to wipe it's nose, comb it's hair and put on it's best pair of short trousers before releasing it out to the world at large.

I think my intention is to wait until the Euros are over and then post it up then. There's so much going on right now that I just don't have the time. And after the Euros, there will be a collective sigh as we all pause for breath, and that might be a good time to post up (what I hope) will be an interesting entry.

________________________________________

Well after my time abroad, I'm now back into my old routine of working away from home on Tuesday and Wednesday, returning on Thursday. Based on this, I'm not sure how much trading I'll be able to do whilst in my hotel. I may try a couple of standing trades, but we'll have to wait and see.

Tomorrow night I'll try and post up the Elo ratings for the next round of eight matches of the Euros.

On Friday, I'm taking my wife to Milan for the weekend, and I get back home on Monday lunchtime, so unfortunately I'll be completely offline over this coming weekend.

Luck of the Irish

.. and luckily I didn't have their luck, as Croatia were the superior team and deserved winners of the match - even though Ireland had a stonewall penalty disallowed.

Today has been happily uneventful for me. No amazing successes and, more importantly, no losses. With the Euros upon us, I think that is more important than ever. It's only too easy to get caught up in the hype and hysteria of a major tournament like the Euros and think to yourself that, because of the huge liquidity, with all that mass of money sloshing around, swelling the markets to bursting point, that you have to make more money than usual or, even worse, that you have to increase your exposure in the markets to do so. This would be a serious mistake and the chances of losing more are, in my opinion, magnified far beyond the level of that increased exposure.

Don't look to make more money than usual. Treat these highly liquid markets just like you would any other markets. By all means adjust your methods if you play differently depending on market liquidity, but don't start doing things you wouldn't ordinarily do. Don't increase the number of bets, or start betting in markets that you don't normally visit. You almost certainly have no edge under these circumstances.

As mentioned, nothing too amazing today. Made a few bits and pieces on both games, and have also managed to secure £38 on the French Open winners market in the tennis, which will be settled tomorrow. I did notice that scalping on the Spain game was decidedly harder than scalping the Ireland game, as in the Spain game available money was being snaffled-up at an amazingly quick rate. This must have been people at the match with a very solid connection to Betfair. The Ireland match didn't have this problem.


Football: £158.65 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £158.65



Football Showing 1 - 8 of 8 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Rep of Ireland v Croatia : Correct Score 10-Jun-12 19:45  10-Jun-12 21:51  50.18
Football / Rep of Ireland v Croatia : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 10-Jun-12 19:45  10-Jun-12 21:46  2.39
Football / Rep of Ireland v Croatia : Over/Under 5.5 Goals 10-Jun-12 19:45  10-Jun-12 21:45  4.08
Football / Rep of Ireland v Croatia : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 10-Jun-12 19:45  10-Jun-12 20:54  13.30
Football / Rep of Ireland v Croatia : Over/Under 2.5 goals 10-Jun-12 19:45  10-Jun-12 20:31  6.48
Football / Spain v Italy : Correct Score 10-Jun-12 17:00  10-Jun-12 18:59  55.02
Football / Spain v Italy : Half Time 10-Jun-12 17:00  10-Jun-12 18:03  2.73
Football / Spain v Italy : Half Time Score 10-Jun-12 17:00  10-Jun-12 17:47  24.47

Not as clinical as the Germans

Made an annoying fuck-up in the Germany v Portugal match this evening, which all but wiped-out my profit in the Correct Score market. If I hadn't made a mistake, then I would have cleared well over £100 in that market, plus my little £20 in the Over 1.5 market.

Little bit peeved, but c'est la vie. A profit is a profit, even though it's small and insignificant.


 
Football: £46.68 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £46.68

 

Football Showing 1 - 2 of 2 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Germany v Portugal : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 09-Jun-12 19:45  09-Jun-12 21:44  20.15
Football / Germany v Portugal : Correct Score 09-Jun-12 19:45  09-Jun-12 21:42  26.53

____________________________________________

I, like Cassini, was absolutely horrified that Paddy GA, who requested I add him to my blog roll, would dare to send out a generic request to all of us in blogland, massaging all our individual egos with the same supercilious compliment. How very dare he!

I Told You Denmark Would Win the Euros

Looks like my suspect stats from this post, showing Denmark as top gainers of Elo points over the last year and Holland as rock bottom was true insight!

Alright, I'll accept that was bollocks, but how toothless were Holland? They had some definite chances that they should most certainly have put away, but they were very "England-esque" (and I know that's not a word) in their poor finishing and in how frustrating they were.

I have Holland as part of my Winners market dutch, so that's probably not looking too good right now. I didn't necessarily think they were going to win, but I did assume they would qualify from their group, and thus help me green-up. My dutch, however, does have a few different teams in it, so I'm hoping it will still yield some green further down the line.


Football: £79.09 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £79.09


Football Showing 1 - 3 of 3 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Netherlands v Denmark : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 09-Jun-12 17:00  09-Jun-12 18:56  0.00
Football / Netherlands v Denmark : Over/Under 2.5 goals 09-Jun-12 17:00  09-Jun-12 18:56  21.47
Football / Netherlands v Denmark : Correct Score 09-Jun-12 17:00  09-Jun-12 18:54  57.62

____________________________________________

I received this comment on my last entry:

Hello, you don't know me by this is but I was an avid reader and contributor to the sports betting / trading community. I have now begun another chapter in my life and trying to recover from gambling addiction. I have started a blog to try to assist me in my journey and would appreciate it if you could find a way to plug it for me, It may sound contradictory but I think some readers of these BLOG (including my own one in the past) may have similar issues to me and I would appreciate a little help from influential bloggers such as yourself.If you feel it is inappropriate I will understand but hey ho, it was worth an effort. Wish me luck.

http://betfair2ga.blogspot.ie/

I've added him to my roll, but I thought this bit, "... I would appreciate a little help from influential bloggers such as yourself." was a bit funny.

Influential bloggers? I'm not sure about that. I have about as much influence as a fart in the wind.