I'm So Ashamed

I nearly didn't post this entry, as I do genuinely feel ashamed of myself. But I figure this has got to be a completely honest blog, warts and all. This way, I can learn and, hopefully, others can learn from all my horrible mistakes along the way.

I've been betting/trading/scalping for over five years now, and today was the day I found myself, inexplicably panicking and chasing like there's no tomorrow. There's absolutely no excuse for it - and even more bizarrely no real reason behind it either.

Okay, let me talk you through my P/L today, and I'll attemp to explain all my irrational behaviour. The first three small wins were me trialling a bot that I was running on the match odds. All looks okay for this bot, but it very early days and I will need to perform considerably more testing before I have any real definitive answers for it's success or failure.

The Celtic game was standard trading/scalping and there was no dramas there. So up to this point, the day was panning out in normal fashion, but then it all started falling apart.

For some reason, I decided to put a straight bet on Juventus winning the first half. This is the point where things went bad, and even now I cannot provide an explanation of why I went with this bet. I'm a trader, not a bettor.

Even though they looked they were going to win the match comfortably, the score at half-time was 0-0 and so I lost that bet. This wrankled me as I looked at the profit I'd already made on the other matches and realised that my profit so far was all but wiped out.

"I know, I said to myself, Juventus look like they're going to win this match easily enough, I'll recoup my loss on the half-time by backing them on the full-time match odds."

And so I did. I was watching the game and growing a little exasperated at all the missed chances - and foolishly I decided to get involved in trading the Correct Score at completely the wrong time and in the wrong way. This is something I've never done before but I went ahead anyway. Well, about twenty seconds after I got involved in this market, Juventus scored and I lost  £200.  If I'd remained patient my full-time match odds would have won and that would have been the end of my chasing, but now I was on a roll!

Seeing my losses wracking-up, I continued with my suicide mission, made back about £50 before hitting another loss of around £120. Total loss on this market now hit £274. This meant that overall, at this point I was over £200 down (of course the full-time match odds bet won with no problem).

Absolutely fuming with myself, I decided that I couldn't trade or scalp any more today. So instead, I made yet another totally stupid decision. I threw a straight £300 bet on Over 2.5 goals on the Wolves game. And yes, this bet was won and all my losses were recovered in one fell swoop.

So I come out on top today (over £100), but feel more down and depressed with myself over my betting than I can ever remember. What a complete and utter wanker. There are four distinct episodes of chasing here today, with the final one (luckily) working out.

I cannot really explain how this roller-coaster got started today. It's all so out of character for me and cannot be described as anything other than a complete disaster. And, as I have mentioned at the beginning, I'm ashamed with myself.

Okay, so I will make myself and anyone reading this blog a promise here and now. This is the last time I will EVER do anything as stupid as this ever again. It is utterly pointless and can only lead to heavy, heavy losses in the future. This is my solomn promise.
 
Football: £102.24 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £102.24 

 

Football Showing 1 - 9 of 9 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Wolves v Sunderland : Over/Under 2.5 goals 04-Dec-11 16:00  04-Dec-11 17:41  319.54
Football / Juventus v Cesena : Correct Score 04-Dec-11 14:00  04-Dec-11 15:51  -274.78
Football / Juventus v Cesena : Match Odds 04-Dec-11 14:00  04-Dec-11 15:50  52.30
Football / Juventus v Cesena : Half Time 04-Dec-11 14:00  04-Dec-11 14:47  -37.02
Football / Dundee Utd v Celtic : Over/Under 2.5 goals 04-Dec-11 12:45  04-Dec-11 14:42  13.02
Football / Dundee Utd v Celtic : Correct Score 04-Dec-11 12:45  04-Dec-11 14:40  17.11
Football / Cardiff v Birmingham : Match Odds 04-Dec-11 12:30  04-Dec-11 14:25  5.71
Football / Aachen v 1860 Munich : Match Odds 04-Dec-11 12:30  04-Dec-11 14:21  2.92
Football / Dynamo Dresden v FSV Frankfurt : Match Odds 04-Dec-11 12:30  04-Dec-11 14:20  3.44

WTF

I don't really know what was going on today. I had to go out today before the end of the Chelsea game, so I didn't trade the Correct Score market, but I did so on the Bristol City v Middlesbrough and Aston Villa v Man Utd games - and everything was going haywire!

The graph here is from Bet Angel and shows the massive spikes that were occurring whilst I was trading. But these were not "real" spikes. Huge amounts of money would appear and disappear, often going right through the money I had on offer but none of it would be taken.

I don't know if this is something to do with Betfair's cross-matching or one of their bots trying out something new, but it was royally f*cking up the normal pattern of betting (which was continuing underneath all this bizarred ghostly activity).

No dramas today on the actual betting front. Nice steady profit today :-)

Football: £134.48 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £134.48 

 

Football Showing 1 - 9 of 9 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Inter v Udinese : Over/Under 2.5 goals 03-Dec-11 19:45  03-Dec-11 21:41  0.01
Football / Inter v Udinese : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 03-Dec-11 19:45  03-Dec-11 21:40  5.71
Football / Inter v Udinese : Correct Score 03-Dec-11 19:45  03-Dec-11 21:38  29.53
Football / Fixtures 03 December : Daily Goals 03 Dec PL 03-Dec-11 12:45  03-Dec-11 19:34  -3.18
Football / Aston Villa v Man Utd : Correct Score 03-Dec-11 17:30  03-Dec-11 19:32  16.58
Football / Aston Villa v Man Utd : Over/Under 2.5 goals 03-Dec-11 17:30  03-Dec-11 19:31  37.17
Football / Bristol City v Middlesbrough : Correct Score 03-Dec-11 17:20  03-Dec-11 19:20  9.88
Football / Newcastle v Chelsea : Over/Under 2.5 goals 03-Dec-11 12:45  03-Dec-11 14:39  28.76
Football / G Furth v H Rostock : Over/Under 2.5 goals 03-Dec-11 12:00  03-Dec-11 13:32  10.02

A Hard One

After my attack of the greedy pigs yesterday, I was today determined to return to my normal considered approach. I believe I achieved this, but found tonight quite tough going with money-making opportunities difficult to climb aboard.

Having said that, with a series of scores covered on the Crystal Palace v Derby match, I felt myself somewhat unlucky to be stuffed by an own goal. As far as I was concerned, Derby could have huffed and puffed all night long and not been able to score a goal. They were awful in front on goal.

Anyway, despite a small loss this evening, not too unhappy. Most of my trades and forward positions panned out correctly. And if not for the own goal, I would have had a good evening of betting.
As they say, tomorrow's another day, and matches mean money!


Soccer: -£23.03 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  -£23.03 

 

Soccer Showing 1 - 4 of 4 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Soccer / C Palace v Derby : Correct Score 02-Dec-11 19:45  02-Dec-11 21:42  -81.31
Soccer / C Palace v Derby : Over/Under 2.5 goals 02-Dec-11 19:45  02-Dec-11 21:41  22.70
Soccer / Leverkusen v Hoffenheim : Over/Under 2.5 goals 02-Dec-11 19:30  02-Dec-11 21:25  7.96
Soccer / Leverkusen v Hoffenheim : Correct Score 02-Dec-11 19:30  02-Dec-11 21:23  27.62

Being Greedy Makes You Skinny

What do I mean? Well, as scalpers and traders we've probably all experienced staying just slighly too long in that open position, attempting to grab those one or two extra ticks. But I'm here to tell you that these small moments of greed will ultimately have a negative affect and cause your profits to become skinny.

"Just another tick. Ooh, I got that quick, so just another one or two..."
"Aaargh! Bollocks!"

Yes, you've been there. And I'm slightly ashamed to say that is where I was today. Coming back home from working away, I just got in to see the last fifteen minutes of the Twente v Fulham game. I don't like to admit it, but looking back, my first thought was,

"Damn, I've missed most of the game, let's see if I can make this worthwhile".

Placing that silly thought in my head then meant that I tried pushing it just that little bit too far. A goal went in during the last two minutes when I had absolutely no right being in the game... and the result was a deserved loss.

I restored my discipline for the Stoke game, although due to home circumstances I missed the first-half of this game also, but I still end the night with a fairly large red.

Disappointed with myself, but sometimes lessons need to be learnt again and again...


Football: -£137.85 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  -£137.85 

 

Football Showing 1 - 3 of 3 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Stoke v Dinamo Kiev : Correct Score 01-Dec-11 20:05  01-Dec-11 22:01  37.14
Football / Stoke v Dinamo Kiev : Over/Under 2.5 goals 01-Dec-11 20:05  01-Dec-11 21:59  5.84
Football / Twente v Fulham : Correct Score 01-Dec-11 18:00  01-Dec-11 19:55  -180.83

Trading Strategies

What are your trading strategies? What markets do you tend towards? What works for you and what doesn't?

This last question is very important, and one that you may not be able to fully answer unless you keep accurate records of all your bets. For myself, I record every bet/trade/scalp that I make, and my spreadsheet automatically details what bets on what markets I am profitable in and those that I am not. This then tells me which areas to concentrate on and which to avoid.

Before I had this spreadsheet, I mistakenly thought I was profitable in one area, but the reality was the complete opposite. If you presently do not record all your betting activity, then I would urge you to do so.

As you've probably seen from my daily P/Ls, I tend to concentrate on the Under/Over markets and the Match Odds. These have proved happy hunting grounds for me, and I'm comfortable that I can make these markets pay while trading in-play. You must do the same. Be selective, work hard and hopefully we can all go on a profitable ride together.

In the next few entries, if I'm not betting, I'll post-up some basic ideas and strategies that you may (or may not) want to look at. Either way, it may trigger some ideas in your head and prove helpful.

Trading Methodology

Okay, as mentioned before, I find myself stuck in a hotel on Tuesday and Wednesday nights, and so tend to refrain from any footy trading. As I write, there are Carling Cup games being played (Liverpool and Cardiff winning their respective games), but I keep my powder dry until I know I can trade properly.

What do I mean by trading properly? Well, that means being able to green/red-up any outstanding position with a reliable connection into Betfair. Even though my connection via my phone is generally stable, I've been bitten before where I've been locked out by a dropped connection.

So, during the absence of any trading, perhaps we can talk about methodology. First-off, I work-up my own stats for in-play betting. This involves things like:

• Percentage of games with a goal in the second-half when the first-half is goalless.
• Percentage of games with a goal in the second-half when the first-half has one goal/two goals.
• Average time for a second goal to be scored after a first goal is scored.
• Percentage of games that finish > 2.5 goals after one goal is scored in the first-half.
• Percentage of games where the away team lead at half-time and go on to win/do not win.
• Average goal time for the home team
• Average goal time for the away team
• etc.

All the types of stat as above help enormously when making instant decisions while trading in-play. I also work-up my own stats for:

• Goal Supremacy
• ELO Ratings
• Poisson
• Rate Form
• Score Ability
• Game Form
• Power Ratings
• Dyads and Triads

If you're not familiar with any of these then you should be able to find them by Googling them. These stats are also beneficial. These are not used in isolation, but rather used as aids during the game to help assess what is likely to happen in a game. More often than not, these stats assist in making a successful trade.

In short, arm yourself with as much weaponry as you can to help you make the right decisions at the right time.

It's Christmas!

Well, it is in my house. My wife (backed-up by my kids) has insisted that we get all the Christmas decorations down from the loft, and our tree is already proudly standing in our lounge, all lights ablaze.

Another straightforward night of trading. Bit rushed for time at the present, so I'll post-up a more detailed entry tomorrow.





Football: £63.53 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £63.53 

 

Football Showing 1 - 4 of 4 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Charlton v Huddersfield : Correct Score 28-Nov-11 19:45  28-Nov-11 21:46  20.68
Football / Charlton v Huddersfield : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 28-Nov-11 19:45  28-Nov-11 21:42  6.02
Football / Charlton v Huddersfield : Over/Under 2.5 goals 28-Nov-11 19:45  28-Nov-11 21:42  26.29
Football / Fortuna Dusseldorf v G Furth : Over/Under 2.5 goals 28-Nov-11 19:15  28-Nov-11 20:37  10.54