There are lies, damned lies...

I was reading an article the other day on the BBC website HERE that discusses the old fallacy of there being more people alive today than all the people who have ever lived. Yes. Complete bullshit I'm afraid, so be a good boy and stop casually dropping this misnomer into conversations.

When reading this article I was reminded of another well-known "fact": that 95% of all gamblers lose money. On this point, sadly I cannot direct you to another BBC link exploding this one as a myth also, but perhaps it wouldn't be such a bad idea if we all took this little nuggest of information with the same pinch of salt.

• Statistics are like whores, play with them long enough and they'll do anything for you.
• Ten percent of all car thieves are left-handed. All polar bears are left-handed. If your car is stolen, there's a 10 percent chance it was nicked by a Polar bear
• Statistics means never having to say you're certain.
• Statistics is the art of never having to say you're wrong.
• 97.3% of all statistics are made up.
• A statistician is a person who draws a mathematically precise line from an unwarranted assumption to a foregone conclusion.
• A statistician can have his head in an oven and his feet in ice, and he will say that on the average he feels fine.

Alright you get the point. I'm not saying this "95% losers" notion is false and I'm not saying it's true - I've never seen any definitive proof either way. But what purpose does it serve knowing it? Does it help you as a gambler/trader? I personally know a lot more winners in the gambling world than I know losers. Of course this doesn't tell us anything either, but we shouldn't allow ourselves to be downtrodden by the weight of supposed facts. We shouldn't allow this often posited "truth" to become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

So how do you view yourself? Do you lump yourself in with this supposed 95%?

We all pursue this hobby or job because we love the idea of it. We love trying to get one over on the system; we love trying to compete in a tough and demanding arena; we love the notion that our view of a particular market was the correct one; we love the idea that we were right.

If you have a negative P&L or you have lost money continually over the last few years, well at this precise moment in time that doesn't really matter. Because in the very next moment there is a chance of stumbling upon a method of betting/trading that suits your character and can be adapted successfully to the market.

 

We are all losers at a particular snapshot in time, just as we are all winners. Overall you may be down or you may be up, but it's the strong pursuit of improvement and refinement that is key. The urge to find something that hasn't yet been attained is the important thing. And if you're doing that, then there's no way you can be considered a loser.

 

That's a 100% statistical fact.