Incompetent Managers and Random Strategies

Steve Kean. What on earth possesses a man to endure such vilification and hatred? I realise this is his first shot at big-time management and that he doesn’t want to walk away from it because he knows he’ll never get another shot… but really. For his own dignity and, if he cares anything at all about the club that he’s helping to push down into the Championship, he really should go. His record shows him to be quite incompetent, as is the owners'.

The owners, of course, hold the large measure of responsibility for the appalling decline at Blackburn Rovers, but sitting in India, they are far removed from the hatred being directed towards them. Even if/when Kean goes, I can’t see an easy solution for the club.

Anyway, as promised, below is a list of possible trades/strategies. I’m not saying that any of them are successful (and I’m not saying that they are not either), but that would be for you to find out. At the very least some of these may trigger some ideas in your head, or lead you to other strategies devised by yourself. Good luck:

• For matches where the goal expectation is low, dutch 0-0, 1-0, and 0-1 for the first fifteen minutes. These will all shorten over that time, allowing a profit to be made.
• For matches where the goal expectation is high, dutch, 1-1, 2-1 and 1-2. After 30 minutes, also back 2-2. Green-up when appropriate.
• The most common number of goals scored in a game is 2.x, so what about trading 1-1? The odds don’t move for evenly-matched teams for the first thirty minutes or so.
• Lay 0-0 at 20 minutes. If a goal is scored then it’s a win. If no goal is scored at 70 minutes, trade-out for a loss.
• If 0-0 at half-time, lay 0-1. If 0-0 at 80 minutes, trade-out
• If 0-0 @ HT, dutch  0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1 ( If you get total odds of 1.5 or better).
• If no goal after 30 minutes, lay the draw. Green-up after first goal.
• If anyone is named as a substitute, lay them as first goalscorer.
• For weak away teams, Lay them and green-up after five minutes. If weak team score, wait until home team equalise.
• Check average first goal scoring time for all teams. If average is late, lay 0-10 minutes first goal.
• Most games end in H/H/, D/D or D/H. Why not dutch these?
• Back FT 1-0 and lay HT 1-0.
• For strong teams, back HT 0-0 and HT home win.
• If home team winning at HT by one goal, lay them. (Odds must be below 2.00).
• Back Over 2.5 goals if no goals after 20 minutes. Trade-out on first goal.
• If a goal is scored in the first 10 minutes of a game, lay > 3.5 goals. Trade-out after ten minutes.
• If >2.5 is greater than 2.1, then back 0-0 and 1-1 and Lay The Draw.
• For weak home teams, Back H/H and Lay HT home. If winning at HT, lay home for small loss.

 These are just a few that might provide you with some food for thought. There are of course plenty more. Perhaps when I'm away next time in the new year, I'll post up some more.

Back To Slow And Steady

No dramas this evening, which is never a bad thing.

Still some Bundesliga games left before the Christmas break, so I started off with that for half-an-hour, moved onto the Palace v Birmingham game, whilst still watching the St Pauli game on Betfair Video. When St Pauli scored, I quickly moved back to that game as it's always a good time to catch some extra ticks, and from there stayed on that game until the end. Then I moved back to the Palace game.

All good steady profits. The Match Odds didn't look right for me today, so I concentrated on the Correct Scores instead.

Back to work tomorrow morning, staying in my hotel for a couple of nights. I should be back on Thursday before the Spurs v Chelsea game.

If I get time tomorrow or Wednesday, I'll post-up some trading ideas that you may want to consider. I realise that I did promise this before, but I'll definitely try and do so this time.

Football: £87.51 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £87.51 

 

Football Showing 1 - 4 of 4 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / C Palace v Birmingham : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 19-Dec-11 19:45  19-Dec-11 21:42  14.98
Football / C Palace v Birmingham : Correct Score 19-Dec-11 19:45  19-Dec-11 21:42  30.93
Football / St Pauli v Eintracht Frankfurt : Correct Score 19-Dec-11 19:15  19-Dec-11 21:14  20.49
Football / St Pauli v Eintracht Frankfurt : Over/Under 2.5 goals 19-Dec-11 19:15  19-Dec-11 21:13  21.11

Invincible... Erm, I Don't Think So!

With things having been going so well recently, including yesterday's profit which I didn't even earn, I have definitely become a little too cocky recently...

And what happens in betting/trading when we grow complacent? That's right. We get burnt! And trading is absolutely guaranteed to provide a salutory lesson in timely fashion. Pride before a fall, and all that.

Feeling on top of the world from yesterday, I began "strutting my stuff" today on the QPR v Man Utd game. This felt quite easy and I managed to run-up a nice total without too much effort, making over £60. With three live games on the box, I was looking forward to a good total and, in between small bouts of DIY, I then moved onto the Aston Villa v Liverpool.

Here's where the toppling-off my self-constructed pedastal came along. Whilst lazily trading the Villa game, I also started trading the match odds on the Bundesliga 2 game against H Rostock and Dresden. Rostock had a one goal lead but then had a man sent-off. At this point I had collected £10 in green, and any sensible person would have stopped there as Dresden were a man up and were attacking at any opportunity. But I'm not a sensible person, and got greedy thinking I could squeeze a few extra ticks out of the game before stopping.

Bang, Dresden score with virtually the last kick of the game and I lose £194.

Shaking my head in disbelief, I looked back at the Villa/Liverpool game, where I had left an £8 green, only to see that I had inadvertently left £200 up which had been taken just before Liverpool scored their second goal. Oh God, what was going on? In the space of ten seconds, I was about £350 down.

Feeling gutted, I placed a bet to level-up for zero on the market, not really expecting it ever to get matched, and then carried-on with my DIY. At this point, I kept thinking how all my fortunate profit from yesterday was completely wiped-out, but there was nothing I could do.

About half-way through the second-half of the Villa game, I looked back at my screen and saw, to my surprise, that no further goals had been scored and that my bet had been matched. Great, I had managed to avoid a double loss. And from that point I knew that I could behave sensibly and try and minimize my loss from the Rostock game. I moved the Villa game into profit, grabbing £46 there, and then I did very well on the Man City game too. At the end of the City game, I was only £1.60 in the red. Ten minutes after the City game finished, I also grabbed £24 on the Mgladbach v Mainz game in the last five minutes of the game.

This was all fantastic, but also infuriating, because if I hadn't touched the Rostock game, I would have hit over £200 profit for the second day in a row. As it turned out, however, I have to be thankful that I have managed to have a profitable day, albeit tiny compared to how it should have been.

Soccer: £22.60 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £22.60 

 

Soccer Showing 1 - 10 of 10 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Soccer / Mgladbach v Mainz : Correct Score 18-Dec-11 16:30  18-Dec-11 18:23  24.32
Soccer / Man City v Arsenal : Correct Score 18-Dec-11 16:10  18-Dec-11 18:05  28.03
Soccer / Man City v Arsenal : Over/Under 2.5 goals 18-Dec-11 16:10  18-Dec-11 18:04  29.04
Soccer / Man City v Arsenal : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 18-Dec-11 16:10  18-Dec-11 18:04  12.72
Soccer / Man City v Arsenal : Match Odds 18-Dec-11 16:10  18-Dec-11 18:02  10.86
Soccer / Aston Villa v Liverpool : Over/Under 2.5 goals 18-Dec-11 14:05  18-Dec-11 15:58  46.94
Soccer / H Rostock v Dynamo Dresden : Match Odds 18-Dec-11 12:30  18-Dec-11 14:21  -194.92
Soccer / QPR v Man Utd : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 18-Dec-11 12:00  18-Dec-11 13:52  1.21
Soccer / QPR v Man Utd : Over/Under 2.5 goals 18-Dec-11 12:00  18-Dec-11 13:52  23.72
Soccer / QPR v Man Utd : Correct Score 18-Dec-11 12:00  18-Dec-11 13:52  40.68

Clueless Profits!

Have been out all day, seeing my mum and my Niece, who came down from London where she is at university, before flying off back home to Los Angeles for Christmas and the New Year.

This meant that I couldn't do any of my normal trading today, so instead, I set-off my little Bot with small stakes on the desktop PC, just to try some things out. Most of these automated trades, however, didn't work for one reason or the other, or half of the triggers didn't fire, so when I came in this evening, with fifteen minutes of the Wigan/Chelsea game remaining, I looked at my P/L and it showed me at £7.00 down. No dramas there but vaguely disappointing.

However, I thought I could grab something on the last few bits of the Wigan/Chelsea game, so I quickly fired-up BetAngel on my laptop and started plugging away on the Match Odds. I noticed some weird behaviour on my API, which I hadn't experienced before - namely my £200 disappearing when I had no "fill-or-kill" set (I never have this set on live games anyway), but I just frowned and continued on my way.

Chelsea were looking a bit wobbly towards the end of the game, so I quickly closed-out my trading on the Match Odds, saw myself green-up for £3 or so, and then moved over to the Correct Score market.

The Correct Scores proved better for me, and I was able to grab £25 before the end of the game.
A couple of minutes before the match finished, however, I happened to look back at the Match Odds market again. I saw £25 red on Chelsea and over £180 green on Wigan and the Draw! Stunned, I quickly greened this up.

Please, do not ask me what happened as I seriously haven't got the first clue to explain this. The only thing I can think of is that my Bot was still running on my desktop, and it was indeed set to trade the Match Odds on the Wigan/Chelsea game. However, I was only trading on the Bot with £5 stakes, so I still don't see how this was the cause.

Looking at the picture I have attached above, you can see just over £20 matched at 11, timed at 19:23 - presumably this when Wigan equalised. This must have meant that I had a lay bet on Chelsea that I didn't know about. But how did this happen when I saw with my own eyes this market greened-up?

I don't really understand any of this, but am certainly happy with it. I cannot, unfortunately, take any credit whatsoever for today's profit as I don't have the first clue how it all happened!

Soccer: £193.07 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £193.07 

 

Soccer Showing 1 - 7 of 7 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Soccer / Wigan v Chelsea : Correct Score 17-Dec-11 17:30  17-Dec-11 19:30  25.86
Soccer / Wigan v Chelsea : Match Odds 17-Dec-11 17:30  17-Dec-11 19:26  174.28
Soccer / Cardiff v Middlesbrough : Match Odds 17-Dec-11 15:00  17-Dec-11 17:01  1.06
Soccer / Bristol City v Nottm Forest : Match Odds 17-Dec-11 15:00  17-Dec-11 16:59  -10.75
Soccer / Hull v Millwall : Match Odds 17-Dec-11 15:00  17-Dec-11 16:55  1.72
Soccer / Blackburn v West Brom : Correct Score 17-Dec-11 15:00  17-Dec-11 16:52  0.12
Soccer / Blackburn v West Brom : Match Odds 17-Dec-11 15:00  17-Dec-11 16:51  0.78

What's Your Trade?

We're all creatures of habit and, particularly in betting, we'll often stick with what works for us or that provides the richest pickings (and why shouldn't we?). Looking at my P/L each day I post them, you'll see all the usual suspects - the Over/Unders market (moving from one to the other as each one closes or becomes untenable), Correct Scores and the occasional Match Odds.

So what are your favourite markets and why? How are these markets profitable for you? Which techniques favour which markets? Presumably you've asked yourselves these questions. And have you considered other markets? If not, why not?

With regards to the Match Odds market, this is only something I've only started trading in the last couple of months, but I'm beginning to love it. If the Match Odds is not suitable for a particular match then I'll go back to my Correct Score market, but the Match Odds has some distinct advantages which I'm starting to enjoy.

First off, there is often much greater liquidity, even on some of the smaller games in lesser leagues. The fluctuation both up and down means that it feels slightly easier to grab a tick here and there; and also (and perhaps more importantly) there is a chance of being on the correct side of the book when a goal is scored, which can provide a massive upside. Of course, like the Correct Score market, it's also quite possible to be caught on the wrong side of the book. The Correct Score market ONLY has the downside (the way I play it, anyway).

I'm waffling here, but I suppose I'm saying that we shouldn't restrict ourselves to one or two markets, just because "that's the way we've always done it". The reality is that, if it's in-play, then ANY market can be successfully traded and/or scalped. The ones you've seen me work on are of course the most popular, but perhaps some of the lesser markets should be looked at more carefully, as opportunities most definitely exist there.

Nice evenings trading tonight - including some nice Match Odds trading (see above). The Bundesliga stops now until late January, so I'll have to see if there's anything else I can work on for Fridays until then.

Soccer: £76.80 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £76.80 

 

Soccer Showing 1 - 5 of 5 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Soccer / B Munich v FC Koln : Correct Score 16-Dec-11 19:30  16-Dec-11 21:22  23.58
Soccer / B Munich v FC Koln : Over/Under 2.5 goals 16-Dec-11 19:30  16-Dec-11 21:17  24.52
Soccer / B Munich v FC Koln : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 16-Dec-11 19:30  16-Dec-11 20:52  1.26
Soccer / Erzgebirge v Ingolstadt : Match Odds 16-Dec-11 17:00  16-Dec-11 18:52  4.01
Soccer / Fortuna Dusseldorf v Paderborn : Match Odds 16-Dec-11 17:00  16-Dec-11 18:52  23.43

Due to family functions, I may not be able to do any trading at all tomorrow. There may be a very small chance of getting on the evening game between Wigan and Chelsea, or MK Dons and Preston, but we'll have to wait and see. If I can't get on anything, I may just set my little Bot going again tomorrow and see what it produces. Watch this space!

Naughty Boy

Had a hangover all day today from the party the day before. Got home from work this evening, and saw that Spurs were 0-3 up at half-time. Looking at the Correct Scores odds, Any Unquoted was just shy of 1.30. This seemed like value to me, so I threw enough on to give me £30 profit.

This, I have to say, goes against my modus operandi and has absolutely nothing to do with being a trader. It's a straight bet, but seemed too good to resist.

Looking at the scoreline a couple of minutes from the end of the game, I was disheartened to see that the score hadn't changed. I think news of the scoreline on the Rubin Kazan game must have filtered through, and so obviously Spurs motivation must have evaporated.

If I'm brutally honest with myself, This important aspect was something I never really considered, and I should have been rightly punished for not doing so. As luck would have it, however, Kane scored for Spurs in the last minute and so this bet was won. But, as the title of this entry suggests, I consider myself a bit naughty for entering into this bet in the first place. (Of course, the title also gives me an excuse to put-up a picture of a cute arse).

Beyond this, I had applied some casual effort on the Birmingham v Maribor game. Grabbed some peanuts on the 2.5 market, and over £20 on the match odds and Correct Score markets.

Both Spurs and Birmingham knocked-out of the competition tonight. I don't think either team will be distraught however.

Football: £55.86 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £55.86 

 

Football Showing 1 - 4 of 4 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Birmingham v NK Maribor : Correct Score 15-Dec-11 20:05  15-Dec-11 22:01  12.48
Football / Birmingham v NK Maribor : Over/Under 2.5 goals 15-Dec-11 20:05  15-Dec-11 22:00  3.20
Football / Birmingham v NK Maribor : Match Odds 15-Dec-11 20:05  15-Dec-11 21:59  9.94
Football / Shamrock Rovers v Tottenham : Correct Score 15-Dec-11 18:00  15-Dec-11 19:48  30.24

F*ck, Sh*t , P*ss, W*nk

Heartily pissed-off with myself this evening. Started off in low-key fashion, but this felt good and very well-controlled. Then I decided to shag this all up with plain old-fashioned bad decision-making.

Backed 0-0 just before KO on the Koln v Mainz game for £100 at 14.5, and then layed the same amount at 14, to leave £50 profit on the 0-0 and no liability on the other scores. As this profit steadily increased as the game progressed, I started a little bit of scalping on the Over/Under 1.5 and 2.5 markets in my usual way. When the profit on the Correct Scores reached over a tenner, I took that - and so was already £20 up with very little effort.

In the second-half of the game, I continued by scalping the Correct Scores market, and moved my £10 profit up to £35, but was then caught-out with a quick goal which wiped-out all my profit on that, and I ended up with just £2.30 profit.

This wasn't too upsetting, the goal occurred very quickly and, on those occasions, I just say to myself that these things happen and "c'est la vie".

However, I then moved onto the St. Johnstone v Aberdeen game, which was an absolutely dire game, truly reflecting the shitty quality of Scottish football (apologies to any Scots looking in!). Only managed a couple of quid on the Over/Unders market before giving it up as the liquidity wasn't good.

And here's where the bad decision-making comes in. Instead of just leaving the night there with over £20 profit, I decided to have a go at the Correct Score market here also. This was plain stupid as the liquidity was very poor, prices were sticking and this should have been ringing loud alarm bells in my head. But with all that cotton-wool where my brain should have been, I didn't hear the alarm. Whilst about £18 up, I got caught by the late goal scored by St. Johnstone and that was my profit gone for the night.

What's made this worse for me was that at half-time in the Inter Milan game, I was convinced there was going to be a goal and intended to lay the 0-0 scoreline. However, I got distracted and forgot to do so, and so lost a potential £50 profit there too

In conclusion, not the best of nights for me, but the only saving grace is that the loss is not too large.

Soccer: -£25.13 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  -£25.13 

 

Soccer Showing 1 - 5 of 5 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Soccer / St Johnstone v Aberdeen : Correct Score 13-Dec-11 19:45  13-Dec-11 21:39  -41.44
Soccer / St Johnstone v Aberdeen : Over/Under 2.5 goals 13-Dec-11 19:45  13-Dec-11 21:35  2.39
Soccer / FC Koln v Mainz : Correct Score 13-Dec-11 19:30  13-Dec-11 21:21  2.30
Soccer / FC Koln v Mainz : Over/Under 2.5 goals 13-Dec-11 19:30  13-Dec-11 21:19  8.69
Soccer / FC Koln v Mainz : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 13-Dec-11 19:30  13-Dec-11 21:12  2.93

Note, I will not be betting tomorrow night as I have a Christmas party to attend. It's my intention to get royally rat-arsed, so I might pop-up again on Thursday evening for some Europa League action.

TTFN.