Fink On

The Fink Tank stats site, also known as the Dectech Predictor was originally created by a team at the Times Newspaper. Using their own algorithm, they create percentage chances for teams based on shots (on and off target).

 

The Fink Tank website can be viewed HERE.

 

This is a commonly-used method to derive different odds and attempt to eek out a little value from the normal odds on offer from the exchanges and bookmakers. Generally speaking, they do seem to hold some worth and should be looked at and checked-out by anyone serious about their betting. It’s probably not a good idea just to take them in isolation, but rather use them to enrich your data sets.

 

 

Having said that, looking at the Fink Tank ratings for the New Year fixtures, there are a few standout matches for me.

 

Swansea v Aston Villa:

According to Fink Tank, Aston Villa – who, let’s be frank, have been absolutely woeful recently – are amazing value. You may have to grit your teeth if you decide to back Villa, or perhaps you may want to hedge a little by settling on an AH0 or AH0.25

 

Liverpool v Sunderland:

Liverpool, as usual are ridiculously priced compared to their actual performances, and have been for the last few years. They are currently a paltry 1.43 on Betfair (better elsewhere) but according to Fink Tank, it’s not just the mis-pricing of the home side that makes Sunderland a decent bet.

 

Southampton v Arsenal:

Another interesting one. Arsenal have had an excellent Christmas campaign and, I suppose, everyone expects them to travel to the south coast and complete another win. Southampton, however, show value according to Fink Tank.

 

Others to consider are Fulham (another side who have taken a dip in form) away to West Brom; Stoke at home to Man City; and QPR away to Chelsea (although you’ll be a brave man to take that bet on).

 

Do remember. I’m not saying any of these will win. They are not bets based on form, but on value. If you look for value, then the three I have highlighted should be of interest to all of you. I'm going to have a small tickle on all three.

 

I Might post on New Year’s day if I manage to trade anything. If not Happy New Year to you all… oh and happy birthday to me.