Expediency Or Fix?

On Wednesday, Chelsea host Champions League minnows Nordsjaelland. The Danish side are already eliminated from further progression in the competition and, disgarding Chelsea's rotten form for the moment, they should comfortably stroll to victory at Stamford Bridge with few dramas encountered.

Having said that, with the Chelsea players seemingly not playing for their new manager, it would be quite fun to see the huge waves of vitriol descending on Stamford Bridge if they don't manage to win.

Regardless of all that, Chelsea's match is not where the main interest lies within Group E. No, the intriguing match is the one that takes place in Ukraine between Shakhtar Donetsk and Juventus. It's interesting because it's all down to each team's individual motivations, tactics and perhaps even questionable negotiations.

A draw between Shakhtar and Juventus of course will automatically dump Chelsea out of the competition irrespective of what they manage to achieve in their own match. A Juventus win will also knock Chelsea out, with Shakhtar already having qualified.

So maybe we might find the draw is a little lower than usual? Erm, yes. Currently available to back at a miserly 1.95 on Betfair. The 0-0 scoreline is a paltry 6.0, with the hot favourite scoreline of 1-1 sits comfortably at decimal odds of 4.5. Even 2-2 is only 9.6. Under 2.5 goals is a skinnny 1.68.

So, a foregone conclusion then? Well, on the face of it, things certainly look that way. But before anyone cries foul or bleats the word "fix", we should perhaps bear a few things in mind.

A draw may well be played-out tomorrow evening, but this could be more to do with simple expediencey rather than anything sinister. Without a single word spoken between the teams, both already know that a lack of activity on Wednesday will prove beneficial to both of them. Shakhtar will save their energy for another day (and indeed will probably rest a player or two), while Juventus will make it through by simply not conceding. There's no need for any conspiracies and no need for match-fixing (which Juventus are certainly no strangers to). Everything can work-out just fine for them if each team just puts in 90% effort on the day and "coasts" through the match.

However, there are some arguments against the "lazy" approach. Juventus cannot risk a sloppy goal being conceded and so will have to be reasonably motivated. A win will make doubly-sure of their qualification and will also see them top the group. Shakhtar have already qualified but presumably would still like to finish top to avoid teams like Barcelona and Man Utd.

Okay, so let's look at all the scenarios:

1. The "fix" is on: If this really is the case, then of course Chelsea stand no chance and the final result will be 0-0 or 1-1.


2. No fix but both teams decide to "coast": Again, Chelsea stand no chance. This will not be an official fix, but it will have the same effect. An unspoken fix, if you like.


3. Juventus try their best to win: This will depend somewhat on Shakhtar. As just mentioned, the Ukranians would like to be top for a favourable draw. For a smaller team like Shakhtar, this will obviously be important, so my guess is that, under these circumstances, Juventus would meet stern resistance. The match, under these conditions, could go either way. If, however, Juventus, go all out and Shakhtar rest players or show no real resolve, then that's also goodnight Chelsea.


4. Shakhtar try their best to win: By this I mean that Juventus may start out with the "coasting" idea, but then realise that Shakhtar are really going for it. Juventus would of course have to respond and try to win the game themselves. Again, could then go either way.


5. The final option is obviously that both teams play their normal games and try to win.

So, we have a few ways that the game could play-out, with two of them definitely leading to the demise of Chelsea. And even then, the other three options could still lead to a Juventus win or draw which will also knock Chelsea out of the competition. Juventus have lost a couple of matches recently to the two Milan teams, but beyond those, they have an amazing record of being unbeaten.

All this analysis I suppose is somewhat pointless. Chelsea themselves will assume they are out and will probably do just enough to secure a win tomorrow. At that point, all they can do is hope.

If you are able to find some value somewhere amongst these unusual odds, then good luck to you. Personally, I will be leaving the match alone (while hoping Chelsea get knocked-out).