My lack of posting is not due to a lack of betting. I've been plodding on as usual and, although it's not the most stunningly exciting information I've ever departed, we'll make this post all about my recent performances.
A couple of posts ago, I was bemoaning the fact that I was on a little losing streak. I wasn't really worried by this as every bettor/trader will have them along the way. As long as we, as individuals, are confident that we have an edge and are doing the right thing, then these (hopefully short) periods can simply be re-described as variance - which of course makes it sound much better, doesn't it. And convenient too!
Do be careful here though, won't you? This is not a suggestion that you kid yourselves. If you don't have an edge, then a losing run may not be variance. The winning runs might be!
Also, whilst in the midst of a losing run, it can often be difficult to see the overall picture. It's a loss, then another loss and then another loss and it's, "Oh shit, what the hell is going on?" But the reality may well be that the P/L is still green. That's what happened to me last month. I had a wobbly period, felt a bit peeved by it - but then looked at my P/L for the entire month and was pleased to see that I was still in profit. P/L for the whole of last month below:
Cricket: £27.13 | Football: £569.96 | Politics: -£33.00 | Tote: | Total P&L: £564.09
Football Showing 1 - 20 of 206 markets
Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Birmingham v Middlesbrough : Correct Score 30-Nov-12 19:45 30-Nov-12 21:41 68.33
Football / Birmingham v Middlesbrough : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 30-Nov-12 19:45 30-Nov-12 21:13 4.03
Football / Birmingham v Middlesbrough : Over/Under 2.5 Goals 30-Nov-12 19:45 30-Nov-12 21:12 11.14
Football / Helmond Sport v Maastricht : Correct Score 30-Nov-12 19:00 30-Nov-12 20:51 -37.50
Football / Veendam v Den Bosch : Match Odds 30-Nov-12 19:00 30-Nov-12 20:50 19.93
Football / Aalen v 1860 Munich : Correct Score 30-Nov-12 17:00 30-Nov-12 18:49 19.40
Football / Hertha Berlin v FC Koln : Correct Score 29-Nov-12 19:15 29-Nov-12 21:09 27.57
Football / Hertha Berlin v FC Koln : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 29-Nov-12 19:15 29-Nov-12 21:09 7.55
Football / Hertha Berlin v FC Koln : Over/Under 2.5 Goals 29-Nov-12 19:15 29-Nov-12 21:09 5.71
Football / Blackburn v Bolton : Match Odds 28-Nov-12 19:45 28-Nov-12 21:37 4.28
Football / Chelsea v Fulham : Match Odds 28-Nov-12 19:45 28-Nov-12 21:36 -62.50
Football / Aston Villa v Reading : Over/Under 2.5 Goals 27-Nov-12 20:00 27-Nov-12 21:53 5.90
Football / Aston Villa v Reading : Correct Score 27-Nov-12 20:00 27-Nov-12 21:53 57.33
Football / Aston Villa v Reading : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 27-Nov-12 20:00 27-Nov-12 21:53 12.15
Football / Aston Villa v Reading : Match Odds 27-Nov-12 20:00 27-Nov-12 21:50 0.00
Football / Anderlecht v KV Mechelen : Match Odds 27-Nov-12 19:00 27-Nov-12 20:56 -33.05
Football / Eintracht Frankfurt v Mainz : Match Odds 27-Nov-12 19:00 27-Nov-12 20:51 -10.00
Football / Hamburg v Schalke : Over/Under 2.5 Goals 27-Nov-12 19:00 27-Nov-12 20:38 0.43
Football / 1860 Munich v Paderborn : Correct Score 27-Nov-12 16:30 27-Nov-12 18:21 20.25
Football / 1860 Munich v Paderborn : Over/Under 2.5 Goals 27-Nov-12 16:30 27-Nov-12 18:21 0.75
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Right, so we're into December, which is something of a contradictory month in many ways. There is generally a ton of football on to watch and to trade, which is always good - but then it's a short month for trading as we have the Christmas and New Year celebrations and, hopefully (if you're not truly awful people), you'll also be dedicating a proportion of your final month towards being with your family and friends. Oh, and just be clear, those faceless individuals in the forums and chatrooms are not your friends so they don't count.
Two days into December, and I feel a bit frustrated. I should already have a reasonably healthy P/L but am virtually in a scratch position. Like a few people, I got my fingers burnt by the extraordinary 45 minutes of action in the Reading v Man Utd match. Really, being objective about it, I should just shrug my shoulders, question how often that sequence of events is going to come along and move on, and in reality I don't have any option but to do that.
My real frustration, however, comes from I'm a Celebrity Get Me Out Of Here. I've never bet on this before, but started watching it properly, looked who I thought were the main contenders and jumped right in by bookmaking a few of the field. I duly layed Helen Flanagan, Nadine Dorries, Colin Baker, Linda Robson, Rosemary Shrager (who was favourite for quite a period), Limahl and Ashley Roberts.
This left a winning position for me on David Haye, Hugo Taylor, Charlie Brooks, Brian Conley and Eric Bristow.
My mistake was laying Ashley Roberts. I'd personally never heard of her and I think that swayed me into laying her at high odds. I suppose in hindsight I should have realised that a young and vivacious girl would attract votes, but there you go.
Towards the end, I was in a good position. I had four of the final five, but by the time the final had come round, I just had Charlie Brooks up against the, by then, favourite, Ashley Roberts. This is where the trader in me came out. I could have let it run and won £85 or lost £112 - or I could have got out for a £52 loss. Thinking that Ashley Roberts was going to storm home, I chose the latter option. Annoying.
For those of you that know nothing about this show, my lay would have won if I'd let it run.
Football: £47.40 | Special Bets: -£52.19 | Tote: | Total P&L: -£4.79
Football Showing 1 - 15 of 15 markets
Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Hoffenheim v W Bremen : Match Odds 02-Dec-12 14:30 02-Dec-12 16:19 -6.00
Football / MK Dons v AFC Wimbledon : Correct Score 02-Dec-12 12:30 02-Dec-12 14:26 22.24
Football / FC Koln v Ingolstadt : Correct Score 02-Dec-12 12:30 02-Dec-12 14:25 48.60
Football / Paderborn v Duisburg : Correct Score 02-Dec-12 12:30 02-Dec-12 14:21 47.10
Football / MK Dons v AFC Wimbledon : Over/Under 2.5 Goals 02-Dec-12 12:30 02-Dec-12 14:21 3.21
Football / Reading v Man Utd : Over/Under 7.5 Goals 01-Dec-12 17:30 01-Dec-12 19:25 52.81
Football / Reading v Man Utd : Over/Under 8.5 Goals 01-Dec-12 17:30 01-Dec-12 19:24 16.90
Football / Reading v Man Utd : Over/Under 6.5 Goals 01-Dec-12 17:30 01-Dec-12 18:06 6.07
Football / Reading v Man Utd : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 01-Dec-12 17:30 01-Dec-12 17:50 -200.00
Football / Reading v Man Utd : Over/Under 2.5 Goals 01-Dec-12 17:30 01-Dec-12 17:47 3.37
Football / Bristol City v Wolves : Match Odds 01-Dec-12 15:00 01-Dec-12 16:59 -3.00
Football / Rochdale v York City : Match Odds Unmanaged 01-Dec-12 15:00 01-Dec-12 16:59 6.05
Football / Man City v Everton : Correct Score 01-Dec-12 15:00 01-Dec-12 16:53 20.92
Football / West Ham v Chelsea : Correct Score 01-Dec-12 12:45 01-Dec-12 14:37 12.67
Football / West Ham v Chelsea : Over/Under 2.5 Goals 01-Dec-12 12:45 01-Dec-12 14:28 16.46
Did some small trading on the MK Dons v Wimbledon match, which wasn't that easy as the liquidity wasn't great - but I felt gutted for Wimbledon losing in the dying moments of the match. I think most neutrals would have wanted Wimbledon to win that match.
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