Monday, 18 February 2013

The Wonder of Asians


For some reason, it seems that whenever the words “Asian” and “Handicap” are mentioned together, then many bettors and traders eyes immediately start to glaze over. Or else, they will profess to understand them and make assurances that they are fully comfortable with them – but then proceed to completely ignore them and never use them.

This is somewhat surprising because often-times there can be more value to be had using an Asian Handicap bet compared to your run-of-the-mill standard bet that we’re all so used to and comfortable with. Also, and perhaps more importantly, Asian bets have the potential to open-up new and different hedging possibilities that can lead to greater profits for all you traders out there, so they really shouldn’t be ignored as they tend to be.

How many people, for example, have you heard discussing a Draw No Bet but never once mentioning AH+0? You’ve probably listened to someone in the last day or so declare that they were going lay some team or another, but I’d be surprised if they also weighed-up if the odds were better on AH+0.5 for the other team.

If you’re not familiar with Asian bets, then you yourself may be muttering under your breath at this point, asking what the hell I’m banging on about – but I would ask you to bear with me. Of course if you fully  understand Asian bets, then by all means quietly pass me (and this post) by and we’ll say not more about it, but if you’re not overly-familiar with Asian bets or tend to swerve them, then perhaps you should spend then next couple of minutes reading. It may just be worth your while.

The Basics:
As the name implies, Asian Handicap betting incorporates a handicap system to adjust each team’s final scoreline, adding or subtracting a handicap value to determine a winner/loser. The idea behind all this is to remove the draw from the equation, leaving only two possible outcomes For example, if Man Utd are playing at home against Reading, then you may see something like this:

  • Man Utd -2.0: Odds of 1.85
  • Reading +2.0: Odds of 2.15

Do bear in mind that I have just made these odds up as an illustration. So if you back Reading at odds of 2.15 and Man Utd go on to win the match 2-0, then that means a win by two goals but then subtract their handicap of -2 goals, resulting in the match ending in a draw as far as the Asian Handicap system is concerned. Under such a situation, your full stake would be returned and the bet considered void. If Man Utd only win by one goal, then you have won your bet.

Actual Result:           Asian Result:

    0-0                  -2 - 0 (Reading win. You win)
    1-0                  -1 - 0 (Reading win. You win)
    2-0                   0 - 0 (Draw. Stake returned)
    3-0                   1 - 0 (Man Utd win. You lose)

Okay, so that’s a basic example, but now I’ll try and provide some practical, day-to-day uses for Asian Handicap bets so that you might start incorporating them into your usual weaponry of tactics.

Draw No Bet:
Forgive me if I start with the most obvious Asian Handicap bet first. But if you like a DNB now and then, it would definitely be to your advantage to also look at an Asian Handicap +/-0 bet also. If Liverpool are playing Arsenal and you see Arsenal +0, then that’s exactly the same as Draw No Bet on Arsenal. This is an Asian bet but there is no handicap applied to either team, and as there is no draw result in an Asian bet, it then becomes a DNB. This is always worth looking at across all the bookies you have accounts with, as you could well better the DNB price found on Betfair. SBOBet are good for this, as are the might Pinnacle and 188.

Lay a team
Instead of laying teamA because you think they won’t win the match, why not consider striking a +0.5 bet on teamB? This positive handicap on teamB means that if teamA don’t win the match (by at least a one goal advantage), then you will win your bet. A draw scoreline of 0-0, 1-1, etc plus the half-goal given to your team by the handicap means your team wins the match.

Back a team
This of course is the opposite of above. We back teamA for -0.5, meaning we think they will win the match. If they do win the match 2-1, then we take -0.5 away from their scoreline, leaving us with a 1.5-1 scoreline. Our team wins and thus so does out bet.

You may be sighing heavily at this point, so I'll leave it here for the moment. In the next post, I'll deal with more interesting ideas such as: If teamA win by at least 1 goal…”, or perhaps “if teamB only manage to lose by 2 goals…”. This opens-up more possibilities and more flexibility. I'll also delve into the dark waters of split Asians, which do seem to intimidate some people.



____________________________

Just one quick answer to a comment:


Neil Daley18 February 2013 20:19
I've also been experimenting with MySql and PHP. Works great once you get it going. Have you managed to automate the process of getting data from Football-Data.co.uk straight into you database or do you download it first?

I haven't attempted to automate retrieving the data (yet) as I need to insert it into an Excel sheet first so that I can amalgamate that data with the score time data that I hold. I can then insert a fully-enriched data set into my database.

I'm really getting to grips with it all now and am well down the road to having what I want. Working-out how to code-up all my algorithms in SQL and/or PHP will take some work but I'm well on track.








Saturday, 9 February 2013

Exchange? What Exchange?


Have you typed-in www.betfair.com recently? I have and, over the last couple of days sometimes it comes-up with the exchange site that we all love/hate, - but more often than not it's also directed me to their "lovely" new fixed-odds "sportsbook" site with only a small button on the top-left to allow people to go to the exchange? Today, we seem to have the exchange back at the forefront, but what will appear tomorrow, I don't know.

Look at the screenshot here. Can you see the tiny little "Go to exchange" button?

So, perhaps the exchange is being relegated to only a bit-part player in Betfair's new and improved vision? If so, then it doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Their selling point, their originality and innovation was the exchange. It was ground-breaking at the time and is still the reason that they have so many regular customers betting and trading on their site. So to suddenly plonk that summarily to one side and push the fixed-odds side and start swimming with the throng of other standard bookies out there, well it all seems rather bizarre. How are they going to differentiate themselves from Ladrokes, William Hill and Bet365? What do they have to offer straight punters that aren't being fully serviced by the normal high-street bookies already? And can they really be advertising the "best odds", but then direct people to the fixed odds site where they most certainly do not have the best odds? I don't think so.


Pinnacle
Okay the good stuff first. Pinnacle are by far and away the best bookies out there. Winners seem to be welcome, the given odds are good, it's possible to get large amounts on without being restricted or banned, they have really decent Asian offerings and cover a large selection of sports and markets. All excellent stuff and well done to them.

Oh, and by the way, if you're one of those people who often submit straight bets on Betfair, then my advice to you would be to stop doing that immediately. Take away the 5% (or slightly less) commission that you happen to give to Betfair, then the odds really do not compare to those offered by Pinnacle. If you were to transfer all your straight betting to Pinnacle lock, stock and barrel then, over the long run, you will win more money with Pinny than you could ever do with Betfair. Trading is another matter of course, but when comparing straight bet value, then it's not even a competition.

As you may have guessed, there is a "but" in all of this. Pinny themselves I have no bad word to say... but as for their website. Well, that's a different matter altogether. Any of you who have Pinnacle accounts and do any regular betting on there will may well be familiar with this particular page:




It drives me absolutely batty. Select a country and a league, spend fifteen or twenty seconds selecting one or two events and markets on that page, add-in your stake, then click submit. Oh, sorry, the money-line has changed in that time, and consequently the site has silently wiped-out all your stakes and so you're submitting no bets. Aaargh!

Now I do realise that Pinny is extremely price sensitive, but often this "refresh" of the odds doesn't even move the odds at all. It's simply a wipe and start again, but for punters who don't jump on a page, select their markets, enter their odds and submit within a few seconds, then there's a decent chance that they will have to do it all over again as their actions weren't within the designated "window".

This is slightly ironic of course as their website is just about the slowest site I've ever been on. I once saw a snail stuck in super-glue inside a wind-tunnel making more headway than Pinnacle's website. It's shockingly sluggish (or "snailish" should I say?). For all the money that must be passing through the site, I'm sure they could invest a few pennies to get someone to design a site that doesn't piss people off.


The Ultimate Football Database
Like many of you out there, I have a whole raft of spreadsheets and workbooks that I use to help me with my betting and trading. Many of them have been developed over a long period of time and are quite rich in features and heavy with data. However, some of them have now started to creak a little as I'm asking a little bit too much from them and they are not really up to the job.

Thus, I've decided to spend much of my time recently to writing a new all-singing-all-dancing database for all my lovely footy stats. Indeed, I’m finding myself spending every spare minute in the design/redesign and coding of the whole thing – which will at last combine all the usual football data, my prediction algorithms and – more importantly – all my score time data into one huge beast of a database that will surely result in me ending-up a multi-millionaire and driving my yacht around the Caribbean islands. Or perhaps not. We’ll have to wait and see.

For those technical people amongst you, I’ve decided to use MySql for my database and PHP for my access into it – and I have to say it’s great fun. I’ve been spending hours poring over my tables, re-shaping and normalising them, and all the tweaking and honing is going well. I’ve also managed to cobble together a working mechanism to automatically pump all the data from football-data.co.uk plus all my score time data into to one CSV file so that I can load a full and rich data set for each match directly into my database in one go. Once I have five years worth of data for all the major leagues around Europe in place, I will be a happy man indeed, and it will then be a case of maintenance. It's quite a big project but one that I'm sure will be well worth it when it's finally finished.

As a consequence of said database, I haven't been as fully focused on my trading as I perhaps I should. It's wrong, but I find myself already looking forward to next season, where my new database will be ready to unleash and hopefully bear fruit.

Below is the last seven days P/L. Profits are decidedly small but that's the way it goes sometimes.

Football: £203.14  Total P&L:  £203.14


Football Showing 1 - 20 of 27 markets
Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Tottenham v Newcastle : Correct Score 09-Feb-13 12:45 09-Feb-13 14:41 32.73
Football / Tottenham v Newcastle : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 09-Feb-13 12:45 09-Feb-13 14:41 4.34
Football / Union Santa Fe v Arsenal FC : Correct Score 08-Feb-13 22:10 09-Feb-13 00:26 2.40
Football / Watford v C Palace : Correct Score 08-Feb-13 19:45 08-Feb-13 21:43 20.33
Football / Watford v C Palace : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 08-Feb-13 19:45 08-Feb-13 21:17 11.23
Football / Watford v C Palace : Over/Under 2.5 Goals 08-Feb-13 19:45 08-Feb-13 21:14 0.00
Football / Monaco v Le Havre : Over/Under 2.5 Goals 08-Feb-13 19:00 08-Feb-13 20:31 2.94
Football / Nimes v Laval : Over/Under 2.5 Goals 08-Feb-13 19:00 08-Feb-13 20:28 0.05
Football / Auxerre v Tours : Over/Under 2.5 Goals 08-Feb-13 19:00 08-Feb-13 19:24 -11.00
Football / France v Germany : Correct Score 06-Feb-13 20:00 06-Feb-13 21:52 16.18
Football / France v Germany : Match Odds 06-Feb-13 20:00 06-Feb-13 21:52 -10.00
Football / England v Brazil : DRAW NO BET 06-Feb-13 19:30 06-Feb-13 21:32 23.85
Football / France v Germany : Over/Under 2.5 Goals 06-Feb-13 20:00 06-Feb-13 21:32 -1.81
Football / England v Brazil : Correct Score 06-Feb-13 19:30 06-Feb-13 21:26 22.90
Football / L Orient v Southend : Correct Score 05-Feb-13 19:45 05-Feb-13 21:44 28.02
Football / L Orient v Southend : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 05-Feb-13 19:45 05-Feb-13 21:44 1.02
Football / Gillingham v Wycombe : Correct Score 04-Feb-13 19:45 04-Feb-13 21:40 13.91
Football / Gillingham v Wycombe : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 04-Feb-13 19:45 04-Feb-13 21:40 15.32
Football / Man City v Liverpool : Correct Score 03-Feb-13 16:00 03-Feb-13 17:55 17.25
Football / Man City v Liverpool : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 03-Feb-13 16:00 03-Feb-13 17:37 15.44
 Pages: 1  2   of 2 Pages







Saturday, 19 January 2013

To hell in a handbasket

This is the poor soul who has landed himself right in the middle of a storm of protest in a place he probably couldn't find on a map before he arrived. Yes, please welcome Mr. Maricio Pochettino.

Huh? Who?

Precisely. Who the hell is Maricio Pochettino? Why have Southampton sacked a decent manager who looked like he was finally starting to get to grips with life in the Premier League, only to replace him with an unknown Argentine who doesn't speak English, has no knowledge or experience of the Premier League and has only ever managed one mediocre Spanish club who sacked him after he left the team nine points adrift at the bottom of the La Liga table? It is quite beyond reasoning.

Talk about a steep learning curve. Pochettino must have the abilities of a mountain goat to survive this tenure.

And what complete and utter wanker made this decision at Southampton? Where in the hell is the logic? Where is even the smallest scintilla of loyalty and common-sense? Southampton fans, former players and managers have been quick to castigate the Southampton board and howl in protest. And who can blame them? I'm a Spurs supporter but I do have deep sympathy with anyone following the Saints. With Adkins, I'd have given you a decent shot at staying in the Premier League this season. There was no guarantee of that, of course, but as mentioned, they did appear to be turning a corner.

With Pinocchio (as he must surely be called) how will they fare now? Well, I suppose it all depends on how motivating/demotiviating this absurd action is for the players. How frustrating is it going to be having to converse with your manager through a translator? How easy is it going to be performing for someone with no real pedigree or track-record? How easy will it be to adopt to a foreign manager's methods and tactics? Only time will tell.

For the fans sake, I hope he proves competent, but I now fear for their survival. The ship has well and truly sailed in the port of Southampton.


Friday, 18 January 2013

Breaking News: water is wet


Yes, water is indeed wet, it gets dark when the sun goes down, big tits are not good on a man and smoking 100 Rothmans a day is not healthy for you.

... oh, and yes, Luis Suarez is a diver.

Hm? What was that. Suarez is a diver? Are you sure? Well, yes, apparently the man who is whiter than white has confessed all when giving an interview to Fox Sports Argentina, admitting that his ridiculous swan dive when playing against Stoke was indeed an example of, how shall we say?, not so honest behaviour. That's right, Suarez is a contestant that didn't quite make the grade to appear on Tom Daley's reality television series Splash!

Of course the fact that Suarez has finally done the decent thing and admitted what every person on the planet already knows is not the interesting thing about all this nonsense. No. It's Brendan Rodgers sham anger at Suarez's admission, calling it "unacceptable" and letting us all know that the matter will be dealt with internally.

It seems that simulation begets simulation. Suarez's fake pole-axing after being assaulted by a feather, followed this week by Rodgers fake ire at finally finding-out in print what he'd seen first hand anyway. It's beyond belief.

Being the wise monkey with his hands over his eyes is not a sensible or credible approach, and it's halfway down the road to Kenny Dalglish's style of "deny everything" management. Perhaps Rodgers still believes the Earth is flat because he hasn't been up to space and seen it for himself? Maybe he's still holding-out hope that the Loch Ness monster will be found. And perhaps he still thinks that Liverpool are a big and important club.

In my view both Suarez and Rodgers should receive some kind of sanction for their gross dishonesty. Neither are oil paintings, so maybe they should be forced into this years annual gurning competition as a penalty - although Suarez does have an unfair advantage there.



____________________________________________________


A couple of comments now. The first on my post about maintaining records of all betting activity:


Laurie Wakeham17 January 2013 02:27

I too have spent ages setting up spreadsheets.I have created a new one for 2013,along with a statsitics and prediction model spreadsheet(during work hours as im bored to death and need a new job desperately).

I'm hoping these pain staking hours of inputting statistics will pay off this year.So fingers crossed. Altho i still have to do an unders/over model too,but cant be arsed at the moment as its just too hot and being couped up in dark cave whilst its 40 degrees outside just isnt healthy,(almost as unhealthy as my betting account).

Good luck on your effort Laurie, although putting-up with that heat must be troublesome. You poor dear! And here we are in England, lucky enough to be enjoying snow blizzards and temperatures of -10 degrees. How you must envy us.

The other comment I have received recently was from Swearbox in response to my post on his blog:

Swearbox16 January 2013 19:22
"Don't spend more than three or four minutes reading the absolute shite in there as it will surely melt you brain. "

Hmmmm...I can't make up my mind whether you are referring to my blog posts or the comments that follow some of them. Hopefully it's the latter but clarification would be great.

As far as it becoming a 'mini-forum' then that's fairly accurate. As you pointed out in your piece above I am currently banned from the forums and have been for the best part of a year now. So if I have something to say that I would have said on the forums I say it on my blog. If others want to comment then I welcome that and it's fair to say that I don't spend too much time on moderating comments though I did go through a period where I had to censor a bunch of posts due to repetitive stupid remarks aimed at mr Bob Vegas that were uncalled for.

My own moderation policy has led to a tremendous amount of 'same old same old' crappy flame wars and my advice is if you don't want to read that then don't read it. In between the insults the comments also serve as a place where pleasantry is exchanged too (shock horror)! Having said that the meat of the blog is the posts and not the comments and I try to make it an interesting read and I've had many folk tell me they enjoyed reading it. 

I'll conclude by saying thanks for putting me in the spotlight...I'm not sure what sort of a readership you have but I suspect it's not huge as my stats don't show a tremendous influx of traffic coming from your site...nevertheless your post did generate some interest so thank you. If you really do find my blog distasteful then you always have the option of removing me from your blogroll which is entirely up to you but I would say that we're in the business of helping each other not obstructing each other. Anyway I'll shut up for now and end by wishing you the best for 2013 and beyond.

There are a few points here, so I'll try to address them. First, yes I was referring to the comments section of your particular post and not your blog in general. I'd have to agree that some of your posts are worth reading and you  can be entertaining. 

I do also take the point about bloggers generally supporting each other and I have no intention of removing you from my blogroll. I don't recall whether I'm on yours or not, but if I am and you decide to remove it, then that's entirely up to you - but it will not result in you being removed from mine. I am childish in many ways, but that would be a step too far, even for me.

My post was largely meant to highlight the low and very poor standard of the Betfair forum, which one of your posts appears to have become an extension of. My target was the lame bunch of people who don't seem to have anything better to do than cause trouble amongst themselves.

Other than that, there does seem to be a bit of "dick checking" hidden within your comments, and a "my dad is bigger than your dad" aspect. What do I mean? 

"'Im not sure what sort of a readership you have but I suspect it's not huge as my stats don't show a tremendous influx of traffic coming from your site"

That sounds like a challenge! I've only been going just over a year now on this blog, but attract between 450 and 500 hits each day and have around 90,000 overall. Judging by the small number of posts you generally make, I'd be surprised (but not shocked) if your equate to that.

... so you see my dick is indeed bigger than yours, and my dad could almost certainly tear your dad a new arsehole.

Cheers.
 



Monday, 14 January 2013

A record disaster

As most normal long-term bettors and traders, I keep regular records of my bets and trades. Probably like most of you, I've also spent a great deal of time creating a snazzy spreadsheet to suit my needs and my betting style. Over the years, I've built-up a full record of all my bets, the type of bets, which markets/trades are successful and which are less profitable or fail.

This of course is absolutely vital as our brains can fool us into thinking that we're doing well in one particular area (a couple of big wins has the ability to blind us) when in fact we're in the red. Over the years, I've dropped countless strategies that I "thought" were doing okay, but the stats proved otherwise.

Recently however, I've got myself into a bit of a sticky patch. I've always been prudent in updating my stats after each day's trading, but for some reason I've recently allowed myself to become lazy in this respect. My stats are very important to me, but I've now created a situation where I have masses of results to input and, much like a tax return or doing one's expenses (which incidentally I'm also behind on!), it has become something to avoid. Now after each day's trading, I feel a pang of regret and also slightly nervous at the thought of attacking my overdue stats.

I'm back in my hotel tomorrow night, and with a very slim football card, I shall bite the bullet and start working my way slowly through my stats backlog. It's not something that I want to do, but it's absolutely vital if I am in any way serious about my betting.

It's an old cliche, but if you haven't started logging your bets in a bespoke spready, then I would urge you to start doing so. I'm personally vowing never to get behind again - once I've finally got myself straight.

________________________________


It was about this time last year that I said to myself (and I think I may have even declared it on this blog) that I was going to get up and running with some serious tennis trading during 2012. Well, as we all know, I'm full of shit and beyond some vague Slam bets, I haven't really taken it seriously. Firstly, I just haven't found the time as I do spend a lot of time on my beloved footy, but also (in hindsight) I do believe it is sensible to stick with a speciality. My speciality is not tennis, it's football. It's the one sport I love watching and trading, but even if I wasn't trading it, I would still watch it and absorb all that's on offer. I suppose I just have to be honest with myself and state that I will never be a serious tennis trader. It's not my first love.

Regardless of all that, however, I will be "auto-trading" the early stages of the Australian Open. This was first highlighted by Peter Webb, but rounds One and Two throw-up a few 1.03/4 "certainties" that just have to be layed. And when I say layed, I mean lay them with a view to backing later if/when they start shakily. For example, Murray plays tonight and can be layed at 1.04. I fully expect him to win, but if his opponent should start well, or Murray starts slowly, then there will be a small drift to be taken advantage of. Laying five or six of these means only one favourite "wobble" will be enough for some green. If there is no wobble, there is still plenty of time to get out for a very small red.

Personally, I'll be firing-up Betangel and doing all this through automation. Hopefully I can wake-up in the morning and seen some profit somewhere. Either way, the liability is neglible:

Haase v Murray (1.04)
Darcis v Kohlscreiber (1.17)
Paire v Federer (1.04)
Sela v Davydenko (1.17)



Sunday, 13 January 2013

When is a blog not a blog?

Answer: when it becomes a weird losers forum for the twisted, vindictive, mindless individuals who surely have no home life, no friends, and absolutely no edge in the betting game.

What am I on about? Well, I pop onto the Betfair forum every now and then, even though it is serious decline and is seemingly about to become completely moribund. Anyway, when I did have a look recently, I saw there was the usual break-out of spats between the various childish people on there - with one long-running argument between a couple of people who seem to have nothing better to do than spend all their time on the forum. Jesus, do these people even have time for betting?

I think I signed up for the Betfair forum at the beginning of 2008, and in those five years I think I've made less than 200 posts. But there are posters on the BF forum who have only signed-up a few months and yet have thousands of posts, and appear to have opinions on absolutely everything.

Don't ask me why, but I did revisit the forum again recently, and noticed that one of these individuals, a particularly sad specimen who used to trawl any running thread to see where he could make trouble, had managed to get himself banned from the forum.

Swearbox from the blog The Expat Punter, and someone who also managed to get himself banned from the Betfair forum, posted an entry on this individual (HERE) - and it duly sparked a running flame war in the comments section of that post that continues even now. There are now over 800 comments for Swearbox's post, including multiple comments from the subject of the post, who of course has nowhere else to peddle his poisonous views.

So now that blog has seemingly turned into a mini-forum of some description - although I do warn you. Don't spend more than three or four minutes reading the absolute shite in there as it will surely melt you brain. Talk about old women, it's unbelievable. Backwards and forwards, going over the same ground time upon time. It's breathtaking how much time some people are willing to dedicate to absolutely nothing.

_________________________________


Yes, we were all greeted with this familiar page again today, and on this occasion the timing could not have been better (or worse). Three O'clock on a Saturday afternoon. Oh dear oh dear.

Luckily I only had a few straight bets on (some dutch's) that I had no intention of changing, so I wasn't affected, but I do know a great many were as they were locked-out of open positions for the whole of the first half of matches.

Yes another PR disaster for the greatest betting exchange in the world.

Monday, 31 December 2012

Fink On

The Fink Tank stats site, also known as the Dectech Predictor was originally created by a team at the Times Newspaper. Using their own algorithm, they create percentage chances for teams based on shots (on and off target).
 
The Fink Tank website can be viewed HERE.
 
This is a commonly-used method to derive different odds and attempt to eek out a little value from the normal odds on offer from the exchanges and bookmakers. Generally speaking, they do seem to hold some worth and should be looked at and checked-out by anyone serious about their betting. It’s probably not a good idea just to take them in isolation, but rather use them to enrich your data sets.
 
 
Having said that, looking at the Fink Tank ratings for the New Year fixtures, there are a few standout matches for me.
 
Swansea v Aston Villa:
According to Fink Tank, Aston Villa – who, let’s be frank, have been absolutely woeful recently – are amazing value. You may have to grit your teeth if you decide to back Villa, or perhaps you may want to hedge a little by settling on an AH0 or AH0.25
 
Liverpool v Sunderland:
Liverpool, as usual are ridiculously priced compared to their actual performances, and have been for the last few years. They are currently a paltry 1.43 on Betfair (better elsewhere) but according to Fink Tank, it’s not just the mis-pricing of the home side that makes Sunderland a decent bet.
 
Southampton v Arsenal:
Another interesting one. Arsenal have had an excellent Christmas campaign and, I suppose, everyone expects them to travel to the south coast and complete another win. Southampton, however, show value according to Fink Tank.
 
Others to consider are Fulham (another side who have taken a dip in form) away to West Brom; Stoke at home to Man City; and QPR away to Chelsea (although you’ll be a brave man to take that bet on).
 
Do remember. I’m not saying any of these will win. They are not bets based on form, but on value. If you look for value, then the three I have highlighted should be of interest to all of you. I'm going to have a small tickle on all three.
 
I Might post on New Year’s day if I manage to trade anything. If not Happy New Year to you all… oh and happy birthday to me.