Balut!

Once again, I've been a bit naughty when it comes to keeping my blog updated, so please take it as read that I have fully chided myself and given myself a small smack on the back of the hand (which does sting). As always, there are a hatful of absolutely superb reasons for my absence, none of which I shall trouble you with, as I have no doubt they are of zero interest to all of you.

Tonight was interesting for me (or perhaps the very start of something interesting), because besides my usual trading on the Manchester derby, I did have a straight bet on the match odds market, backing Man City for £50 to win. This was hardly high-roller stuff, but the bet was my very first bet based on some intriguing new research that I've been working intensively over the course of the last couple of weeks, and which I'm hoping will be worth it over the long term.

The research, and the accompanying results that I've painstakingly collated, have yielded some generic odds for matches based on certain metrics and characteristics of each match in question. This means that, as far as these particular stats are concerned, absolutely no consideration is given to the teams that happen to be playing or which players are involved. This interests me greatly as it could herald the ideal "lazy man's" betting system (if it works of course).

Anyway, I've backtested this research over seven years worth of football data across eight leagues, and the results look very encouraging (indeed perhaps "too" encouraging).

Tonight was, I suppose, just a taster of what I will be doing in earnest from next season onwards. I have to confess that the trader in me was just itching to trade-out when I was £50 in profit, but I decided to just let the bet ride, as that's precisely what I will be doing when I actually run this system next season.

This single result means absolutely nothing as we all know, but it really was a case of me being so excited by my stats that I just couldn't wait to try them out before next season. It's my intention to fully trial this method on my blog come August, with enough leeway given for a weighty amount of variance. So we shall see what we shall see.

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Okay, seeing as this is the last day of the month, I can now give you an overall P/L for April, and I'm sad to say that I've finally seen my long unbroken my run of profitable months come to an end. It had to happen at some time. The overall loss for this month is small and insignificant, but it's particularly annoying as I had been in the red for most of the month, managed to claw it all back and move back into the black - only for another few losses to plonk me straight back into the red again. Good night tonight on the Manchester derby, giving me over £150, but overall this month has been disappointing.


Football: -£131.51 | Horse Racing: -£5.04 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  -£136.55 

 

Football Showing 1 - 20 of 118 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Man City v Man Utd : Correct Score 30-Apr-12 20:00  30-Apr-12 22:04  47.14
Football / Man City v Man Utd : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 30-Apr-12 20:00  30-Apr-12 22:01  14.33
Football / Man City v Man Utd : Over/Under 2.5 goals 30-Apr-12 20:00  30-Apr-12 22:01  23.77
Football / Man City v Man Utd : Match Odds 30-Apr-12 20:00  30-Apr-12 21:54  67.66
Football / Tottenham v Blackburn : Over/Under 2.5 goals 29-Apr-12 16:00  29-Apr-12 17:55  11.28
Football / Tottenham v Blackburn : Correct Score 29-Apr-12 16:00  29-Apr-12 17:54  40.67
Football / Chelsea v QPR : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 29-Apr-12 13:30  29-Apr-12 14:55  -196.95
Football / Paderborn v FSV Frankfurt : Correct Score 29-Apr-12 12:30  29-Apr-12 14:25  50.51
Football / Dynamo Dresden v St Pauli : Correct Score 29-Apr-12 12:30  29-Apr-12 14:21  50.51
Football / Numancia v Villarreal B : Match Odds 28-Apr-12 17:00  28-Apr-12 18:52  -20.00
Football / Levante v Granada : Match Odds 28-Apr-12 17:00  28-Apr-12 18:50  19.82
Football / Wolfsburg v W Bremen : Match Odds 28-Apr-12 14:30  28-Apr-12 16:22  19.44
Football / B Munich v Stuttgart : Match Odds 28-Apr-12 14:30  28-Apr-12 16:21  -14.80
Football / West Ham v Hull : Correct Score 28-Apr-12 12:30  28-Apr-12 14:23  35.13
Football / Metz v Angers : Match Odds 27-Apr-12 19:00  27-Apr-12 20:53  19.06
Football / Ath Bilbao v Sp Lisbon : Correct Score 26-Apr-12 20:05  26-Apr-12 22:02  60.14
Football / Real Madrid v B Munich : Correct Score 25-Apr-12 19:45  25-Apr-12 21:35  -187.74
Football / Leicester v West Ham : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 23-Apr-12 19:45  23-Apr-12 21:45  -14.60
Football / Leicester v West Ham : Correct Score 23-Apr-12 19:45  23-Apr-12 21:43  61.13
Football / Leicester v West Ham : Over/Under 2.5 goals 23-Apr-12 19:45  23-Apr-12 21:06  22.84



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I do also have some other exciting news (well, exciting for me at least). I've managed to secure a six weeks contract working over in the Philippines, and I leave this coming friday. This has all been a bit last minute, but I've decided to grab the opportunity while I can. This of course will mean that I won't be able to see out the end of the footy season, but it does happily mean that I will be back just in time for the European Championships. My return date is June 1st.

This explains the title post and the rather unpleasant picture above. One of the delicacies over in the Philippines is a half-cooked, ready-to-hatch duck egg, which they call balut. They sell this on street corners and it's thought to be an aphrodisiac. The idea is just to open it and eat it right out of the shell. This, along with spicy cow vagina, is just some of the delights that await me when I land in Manila this coming Saturday. And yes, I do promise not to come back with a mail-order bride (I don't think the missus would be too pleased if I did).

So, I'll be effectively signing-off here for the rest of the season, but I do intend to fully trade the Euros in June. I do also have a backlog of (hopefully) interesting blog posts that I have written or half-written, so these should be helpful to some people when I get round to posting them. These include additional match compilation methods, and other statistical analysis posts.

See you all in June.