Fossil Frog

Surprised to see Arsenal go down to defeat yesterday. Luis Gustavo has obviously brought some much-needed steel to their defence and they looked really solid at the back with him in there.

I also thought some of the link-up play between Gonzalo Higuain and Luis Suarez was absolutely superb. They already seem to have developed an understanding and I'm sure they are going to terrorize the other Premier League teams as the season progresses. Fast, fluid play full of goal threat. Higuain proved yesterday what an astute signing Arsenal have made, and I'm sure he will repay the large fee with goals aplenty.

I was also impressed with their new midfielder from Lyon, Maxime Gonolans. What a star he was. Spraying the ball around, orchestrating the play from the middle of the park like he owned the place. Yes indeed, despite the defeat yesterday, these are exciting times for Arsenal - and for their legion of fans...

Huh? What's that? What do you mean? Parallel universe? Are you sure?

Of course as a Spurs fan this is all enormously enjoyable and heart-warming stuff. I think it must indeed be a parallel universe because it's supposed to be us Yids that are tight-fisted, rather than our odious neighbours. But look where we are now. Wenger has got so used to saving his pennies that it appears he's completely forgotten how to spend at all. Or perhaps he's harking back to the day when you could pick up a Thierry Henry for £11 million and is baulking at any of today's prices. I really don't know. But if Arsenal continue to perform poorly on the field - and with injuries and suspensions already throwing their paper-thin squad into sharp relief that could well happen - then the pressure on the dinosaur Wenger and the Arsenal board can only grow ever more intense.

It will be interesting to see how it all pans-out.

_____________________________________

Slow start for me as I'm still really in "summer-mode". The weather is still really nice and I was out most of the day laying block paving in my garden. I also feel inclined to go out and socialise when I get the opportunity. The autumn and winter will still leave plenty of time for full-on trading so there's no need to panic. The season is long and opportunities are everywhere.

I did of course have to trade my Spurs, and was happy to see them get off to a winning start. It's always a bit nerve-wracking playing a newly-promoted team on the first day. Adrenalin can go a long way for the newbies in those circumstance and it's easy to get tripped-up.



Football: £128.80  Total P&L:  £128.80

Football Showing 1 - 13 of 13 markets
Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Crystal Palace v Tottenham : Correct Score  18-Aug-13 13:30  18-Aug-13 15:23 39.13
Football / Swansea v Man Utd : Correct Score 17-Aug-13 17:30  17-Aug-13 19:21 24.76
Football / Swansea v Man Utd : Over/Under 3.5 Goals  17-Aug-13 17:30  17-Aug-13 19:10 12.82
Football / Swansea v Man Utd : Over/Under 2.5 Goals  17-Aug-13 17:30  17-Aug-13 19:00 16.76
Football / Zenit St Petersburg v Anzhi Makhachkala : Match Odds  17-Aug-13 15:15 17-Aug-13 17:05 0.00
Football / QPR v Ipswich : Correct Score 17-Aug-13 15:00  17-Aug-13 16:54 -4.60
Football / QPR v Ipswich : Over/Under 1.5 Goals  17-Aug-13 15:00  17-Aug-13 16:54 -15.00
Football / Nimes v ESTAC Troyes : Match Odds  16-Aug-13 19:00  16-Aug-13 20:48 20.70
Football / Nimes v ESTAC Troyes : Correct Score  16-Aug-13 19:00  16-Aug-13 20:48 -7.00
Football / Chateauroux v Tours : Correct Score 16-Aug-13 19:00  16-Aug-13 20:41 5.70
Football / Chateauroux v Tours : Over/Under 2.5 Goals  16-Aug-13 19:00  16-Aug-13 20:21 13.11
Football / Sochaux v Lyon : Over/Under 2.5 Goals  16-Aug-13 19:30  16-Aug-13 20:14 9.69
Football / Nimes v ESTAC Troyes : Over/Under 2.5 Goals  16-Aug-13 19:00  16-Aug-13 19:46 12.73

Wet Tits

Further to my post about laying favourite teams in the various league's winners markets, there are a couple of other possibilities I'd like to draw your attention to.

There is a good chance that quite a few of you don't like the ante-post betting due to the long time it takes to get a return on your money. This is a fair point. Most people don't have huge betting banks and so tying-up your money over nine months can be annoying.

Okay, so what about these instead? These are Aston Villa's opening three matches:

1. Arsenal v Aston Villa
2. Chelsea v Aston Villa
3. Aston Villa v Liverpool

Now the markets may have taken these matches into consideration already, but a quick lay of Villa to finish in the top ten for the duration of these three matches doesn't seem unreasonable to me.

Also, these are Man City's opening matches:

Man City v Newcastle
Cardiff v Man City
Man City v Hull
Stoke v Man City

With Man Utd having some difficult opening fixtures and Chelsea also meeting Utd in the third match, a back of Man City in the winners market for these opening games also doesn't seem like a bad idea. Quick ante-post bets with a short time to wait until they are settled.

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The rather strange title for this post comes as a result of looking at the stats on my blog. Of the Google searches that resulted in the user finding their way to my blog, two searches for "wet tits" strangely led those people to me. Of all the porn sites that this particular search should have pulled up, I do find that somewhat bizarre.

Afterall, as I'm sure you'll agree, there is so much high-brow philosophical adult discussion in this blog. All I can say is:

Huge erections, hot sex, come in my mouth, anal, double penetration and huge bouncy tits.

There, that should help to bring in a few more visitors from now on :-)
 

Football as an investment

Yee-F*cking-Harr! 

It's back again. Yes, after a long (and I have to say enjoyable) summer, the football season proper kicks off again this weekend. It's good to have it back.

I know there have been plenty of you betting on the summer leagues over the last couple of months, and I trust you've all been doing well and are profitable. However, my question to you is: are you refreshed? Are you raring to go with all guns blazing? 

No? Yeah, me neither.

Actually I am. I was very happy I had a break from betting as I feel very enthusiastic and optimistic about the forthcoming season.

So, what's the post title all about? Well, I was looking through all the winner markets for each individual league and was amazed at how many of them (according to bookies and exchanges) are already apparently sown-up by certain teams. 

Is anyone, for example, going to win La Liga this season apart from Barca or Real Madrid? And how about the Scottish Premier League? Will there be any upset there?

No, I don't think so either. So let's have a scout around these winner markets and look what's what.

So, what have I done here? If a team was a clear favourite to win their league, such as Celtic and PSG, then they appear on their own and their odds are those that you can find on the exchange. If there is not a clear-cut favourite, such as in England, then I have dutched those named teams to derive the odds. Spain does not have any odds listed, because if you dutch Barcelona and Real Madrid you lose money (100.7% of the book! Any debate over the lack of competition in that league can now surely be put to bed).

The point I'm making is that some people like to look around for an nice ISA or a high-rate bank account where they can put their money. Others like to dabble on the stock-market. Here, although there is certainly an element of risk in each league (stocks can go down as well as up), we can easily see the given "interest rate" for each market and perhaps use them in this way. For example, if you are unable to beat a 16% return on your money from more conventional investments, then maybe you should consider dutching Man City, Chelsea and Man Utd this season. No one else has won it for the previous nine seasons.

Of course I'm a hypocrite. I put the idea out there with no real intention to do anything like that myself. Rely on Mancs and Chelski to look after my money? You've got to be kidding.

Personally, I think the most ludicrous of all these odds I've listed is that of Bayern's. I do realise that they won everything last season and that they have strengthened their squad again during the summer, but Dortmund have won the Bundesliga two seasons out of the last three and, at those odds, I feel compelled to oppose them. Dortmund are not as strong as they were, but any blip in Bayern's form and their odds only have one way to go. Odds of 1.22 before a ball has been kicked just seems plain daft.

Actually, I don't think you would go too far wrong opposing every one of these listed above. I've already opposed the top English teams, as mentioned previously HERE, and I will certainly look to lay Bayern too. I also know that some of you have opposed PSG at their very low odds. 

And what about Spain. I remember a couple of seasons ago when Levante went flying off and topped the league for a decent amount of time. We only have to get something like that again and there would be some profit.

All ideas to consider. Good luck for the forthcoming season to all of you. 

Royal Baby Name betting

These are some of the odds on offer from Paddy Power.

Elvis, Rumpelstiltskin and Charming are just a few of the names on offer at 500/1, as is Wayne at 250/1 (not sure if that is a homage to Wayne Rooney or if people hoping for Wayne King? Although that doesn't really work)

Personally I like Kong at 500/1 (which does work) and think it would be just right when the child finally comes to the throne. I'm almost tempted.

NOW I can take it easy

Shame that I broke my run in the final of the Confederations Cup last night. I had a solid run of wins all through the tournament (even though I did miss a few games), but that came to an end when Spain failed to turn-up for the final and were simply overrun by a brilliant Brazil side.

I made a good sum on both the semi-finals, opposing both Brazil and Spain to Win Both Halves of their respective matches, plus adding-in some correct score trades. All I needed to do was be sensible in the final and I would have a clean-sweep of wins for the tournament.

Luckily I didn't do much damage as I didn't really trade the match properly. I'd been out all day and got back at about 7:00pm in expectation of catching the Uruguay v Italy play-off match - only to find it had started at 5:00pm and I had missed the whole thing. Bit annoyed with that, but I had enjoyed a nice sunny day with Pimms and charcoaled sausages so I couldn't really complain.

By the time the final came on at 11:00pm I was utterly exhausted and just wanted to flop in my bed. At the same time though, I was determined to watch the final as I expected it to be a good game - and I wasn't wrong there. Not having the energy or willpower to put my laptop on, though, I settled instead for watching the match in bed with the thought of placing the odd bet on my phone should the situation arise.

As you all know, Brazil started like a train and Spain started like Thomas the tank engine stuck in the sidings. When Brazil went 2-0 up, I assumed they would take their foot off the gas and Spain would start to play. I layed Brazil @ 1.17 for £100, and then when Brazil went 3-0 up just after half-time, I layed them again for another £100 @ 1.04.

The liability was very small, just a mere £21 in total. Laying teams in this situation, although it failed this time, is generally a low-risk sensible thing to do (as highlighted HERE) - but if I had been more than half-asleep I might have considered laying Brazil not the best use of my money on this particular occasion. The truth was that Spain were just never at the races.

So, a very small loss but a great tournament overall and a nice little bit of diversion while we all wait for the football season to start again.

Soccer: -£21.00  Total P&L:  -£21.00

Soccer Showing 1 - 1 of 1 markets
Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Soccer / Brazil v Spain : Match Odds 30-Jun-13 23:00 01-Jul-13 00:51 -21.00

_______________________________________

There is a month or so to go before things hot up again. As stated prior to the Confederations Cup starting, I do like to put my feet up this time of year, so I'll probably cool-off on the posts while I make merriment.

As I do so, of course, there will be all manner of transfer shenanigans going on. Ronaldo might go. Cavani might come. There is talk of Rooney moving too - although I personally can't see him going to PSG or Real Madrid as some have suggested. Let's face it, the man can hardly converse in his own language; how is he possibly going to manage with French or Spanish?

As Ian Rush rightly pointed-out, "playing in Italy is like being in a foreign country".

Pooh-gate

As I'm sure you're all aware now, Guy Poyet was sensationally sacked from his role as Brighton manager last night, while he was live on air, broadcasting in his role as pundit for the BBC during the Confederations Cup match between Nigeria and Spain.

The timing of the announcement on Brighton's website and via their Twitter feed was of course designed to cause maximum embarrassment to Poyet, but it does seem strange how quickly this has all got out of hand.

This dates back to May when Crystal Palace came to visit the Amex stadium for the Championship play-off semi-final second leg, and found excrement smeared over the visitor's dressing room. This in itself is a bit strange, as it's a bit like vandalising your own home, but we'll leave that to one side for one moment. The main question is who and why.

Now if you're guessing that Brighton have subsequently conducted some kind of DNA testing and discovered that the brown brick came from the anal lips of the former Chelsea star himself - then I don't think that's the case. No, this was not Poyet putting on a traditional Uruguayan welcome as far as I know; and I also don't believe Poyet sees himself as the new Bobby Sands of the football world.

Apparently Poyet was utterly outraged himself and fired-off an email (luckily that's all he fired-off) to all his staff, demanding to know who the culprit was and that they be sacked immediately. He also demanded a scratch-and-sniff test be performed on all employees.

But somehow this ranting carried-on further, and went on to question the ambition and direction of the club, although the precise nature of the criticism is not known. Maybe he thought the club was going down the pan. Maybe it was along the lines of: "You're shit and you know you are!"?

Either way, this verbal diarrhea was a bad move. Brighton Football Club took offence to the tone and/or content of this email and subsequently suspended Poyet and some of his coaching staff. Now that the dust (or perhaps the steam) has settled, they've now taken the decision to remove him entirely. Wiped from history, if you will.

So there you have it. Poyet is gone. Shafted by Brighton Football Club. Personally, I think the whole thing stinks and reckon it will leave a nasty stain on Brighton's reputation.

Better than the World Cup

I don't know about you, but I've been finding the Confederations Cup a terrific competition to both watch and to trade. End-to-end football. Open, attacking, free-flowing play from fully committed players. Great stuff.

As mentioned in a previous post, before the tournament started, I was hoping that the Confederations Cup, having less kudos than the other major international competitions, would mean more attractive, uninhibited, open play - and happily it has certainly turned-out that way so far. I hope it continues.

Ten matches have been played to date. Nine out of the ten have seen over 2.5 goals - and even if you completely ignore the two matches involving Tahiti, which does squew the data, that still equates to 3.75 goals per game. That is highly unusual in international competition.

I traded with rather small stakes last night, but still found it relatively easy to make a profit. It's not always like that of course, but I'm grateful for those occasions when it is.

Tonight sees Uruguay against Tahiti, so I suppose the most active markets in that match will be the "Correct Score 2 Home" or the "Correct Score 3 Home" ones. Personally, I don't feel very comfortable trading these "dead-cert" kinds of matches so I'll probably just leave that one alone.

In the other match, Nigeria are up against it. They know that Uruguay will secure three points, so they have to beat the World and European Champions if they want to stay in the competition. Spain will want to continue their winning run. I hope that means another lively and entertaining game.

I really recommend that you watch and get involved in some trading of this competition. It's well worth it.


Football: £124.12  Total P&L:  £124.12

Football Showing 1 - 4 of 4 markets
Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Italy v Brazil : Over/Under 6.5 Goals 22-Jun-13 20:00  22-Jun-13 21:55 4.44
Football / Japan v Mexico : Correct Score 22-Jun-13 20:00  22-Jun-13 21:52 34.64
Football / Italy v Brazil : Correct Score 22-Jun-13 20:00  22-Jun-13 21:50 57.35
Football / Italy v Brazil : Over/Under 2.5 Goals 22-Jun-13 20:00  22-Jun-13 21:16 27.69