Friday, 2 August 2013

Football as an investment


It's back again. Yes, after a long (and I have to say enjoyable) summer, the football season proper kicks off again this weekend. It's good to have it back.

I know there have been plenty of you betting on the summer leagues over the last couple of months, and I trust you've all been doing well and are profitable. However, my question to you is: are you refreshed? Are you raring to go with all guns blazing? 

No? Yeah, me neither.

Actually I am. I was very happy I had a break from betting as I feel very enthusiastic and optimistic about the forthcoming season.

So, what's the post title all about? Well, I was looking through all the winner markets for each individual league and was amazed at how many of them (according to bookies and exchanges) are already apparently sown-up by certain teams. 

Is anyone, for example, going to win La Liga this season apart from Barca or Real Madrid? And how about the Scottish Premier League? Will there be any upset there?

No, I don't think so either. So let's have a scout around these winner markets and look what's what.

So, what have I done here? If a team was a clear favourite to win their league, such as Celtic and PSG, then they appear on their own and their odds are those that you can find on the exchange. If there is not a clear-cut favourite, such as in England, then I have dutched those named teams to derive the odds. Spain does not have any odds listed, because if you dutch Barcelona and Real Madrid you lose money (100.7% of the book! Any debate over the lack of competition in that league can now surely be put to bed).

The point I'm making is that some people like to look around for an nice ISA or a high-rate bank account where they can put their money. Others like to dabble on the stock-market. Here, although there is certainly an element of risk in each league (stocks can go down as well as up), we can easily see the given "interest rate" for each market and perhaps use them in this way. For example, if you are unable to beat a 16% return on your money from more conventional investments, then maybe you should consider dutching Man City, Chelsea and Man Utd this season. No one else has won it for the previous nine seasons.

Of course I'm a hypocrite. I put the idea out there with no real intention to do anything like that myself. Rely on Mancs and Chelski to look after my money? You've got to be kidding.

Personally, I think the most ludicrous of all these odds I've listed is that of Bayern's. I do realise that they won everything last season and that they have strengthened their squad again during the summer, but Dortmund have won the Bundesliga two seasons out of the last three and, at those odds, I feel compelled to oppose them. Dortmund are not as strong as they were, but any blip in Bayern's form and their odds only have one way to go. Odds of 1.22 before a ball has been kicked just seems plain daft.

Actually, I don't think you would go too far wrong opposing every one of these listed above. I've already opposed the top English teams, as mentioned previously HERE, and I will certainly look to lay Bayern too. I also know that some of you have opposed PSG at their very low odds. 

And what about Spain. I remember a couple of seasons ago when Levante went flying off and topped the league for a decent amount of time. We only have to get something like that again and there would be some profit.

All ideas to consider. Good luck for the forthcoming season to all of you. 


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  2. Hard to say that it is an investment, but using a good football trading strategy is still the best way to consistently beat the bookies


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