OMG

The absolute miss of the century tonight in the game between Frankurt and Gruether Furth. The Furth striker Edgar Prib flicked the ball neatly over Oka Nikolov, had a completely open goal, was about six feet from the goal line, struck the ball... and hit the post. It really has to be seen to be believed.

If you can find it on Youtube, I suggest you have a look, because it is stunning in it's awfulness.

Had the goal gone in (and I still cannot fathom how it didn't. Actually the ball did go in the net immediately after the miss but was ruled offside), then I would have had a loss on this game. As it didn't, I recorded a much relieved profit.

Had an up-and-down game with the Chelsea v Man City match also. Got caught in a negative position after the second goal, but the red wasn't too large and I managed to chip away at it until the third went in, finishing that market with a small profit.

This last point is important, because it's often the case that you have to work just as hard, if not harder to revert or shrink a negative position than you do to make money. Look below at the details for the Chelsea game 2.5 market:

Soccer > Chelsea v Man City : Over/Under 2.5 goals Showing 1 - 2 of 2 Selections

Selection Odds Stake(£) Bid type Placed Profit/loss(£)
Under 2.5 Goals * 3.24 6,679.97 Back   -6,679.97
Under 2.5 Goals * 3.24 6,688.08 Lay   6,688.08
*Average odds: On  Off  Back subtotal: -6,679.97
Lay subtotal: 6,688.08

Here you can see that I turned over nearly £6,700 pounds on that market alone, and came away with just £7.71 profit. This indeed was hard work, but it pays dividends not to give-up or to start becoming wild in your betting.

All in all, with the excellent reversion, quite a good night. Happy days.

Soccer: £66.27 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £66.27 

 

Soccer Showing 1 - 5 of 5 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Soccer / Chelsea v Man City : Correct Score 12-Dec-11 20:00  12-Dec-11 21:55  24.77
Soccer / Chelsea v Man City : Over/Under 2.5 goals 12-Dec-11 20:00  12-Dec-11 21:41  7.71
Soccer / Eintracht Frankfurt v G Furth : Over/Under 2.5 goals 12-Dec-11 19:15  12-Dec-11 21:06  6.16
Soccer / Eintracht Frankfurt v G Furth : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 12-Dec-11 19:15  12-Dec-11 21:06  0.84
Soccer / Eintracht Frankfurt v G Furth : Correct Score 12-Dec-11 19:15  12-Dec-11 21:04  26.79

Incrementally Risky

Did okay today, with a healthy-looking P/L, but not particularly happy with myself when I was scalping the Stoke v Spurs game in the last fifteen minutes.

Had just finished on the Over 3.5 market and was setting-up the Correct Score market when there was a three minute power cut in my whole street. Very unusual, but luckily I had no open position in the game, as when the power came back on and I got the TV back on, I saw that Spurs had scored a goal from a penalty.

This was okay, but during the remaining period, the play was incredibly open, and either side could have scored a goal or two, with some glorious chances missed, along with a couple of valid penalty shouts. It was during this period that, on looking back, I realised that I got too heavily involved. When scalping, it is imperative to pick and choose your moments, and not just dive in willy-nilly. On reflection, I have to admit that I was dipping in and out of the market far too often, and am probably lucky that I didn't suffer a loss of some kind.

Not that I'm complaining, but it's important to try and learn something from each and every trading experience, if possible. Today, then, is effectively a note to myself to be a little more circumspect in future.

Football: £120.94 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £120.94 

 

Football Showing 1 - 7 of 7 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Stoke v Tottenham : Correct Score 11-Dec-11 16:00  11-Dec-11 17:59  27.70
Football / Stoke v Tottenham : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 11-Dec-11 16:00  11-Dec-11 17:57  16.87
Football / Stoke v Tottenham : Over/Under 2.5 goals 11-Dec-11 16:00  11-Dec-11 17:24  17.73
Football / Sunderland v Blackburn : Correct Score 11-Dec-11 13:30  11-Dec-11 15:32  37.73
Football / Sunderland v Blackburn : Over/Under 2.5 goals 11-Dec-11 13:30  11-Dec-11 15:22  0.68
Football / Aachen v Erzgebirge : Over/Under 2.5 goals 11-Dec-11 12:30  11-Dec-11 14:19  14.87
Football / Aachen v Erzgebirge : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 11-Dec-11 12:30  11-Dec-11 13:51  5.36

What You Sow

... You indeed reap. What goes around comes around. And any other suitable phrases like this that can accurately describe having the smug smile on my face rapidly wiped off.

A couple of entries ago, I gleefully told you how I fished for a price and caught an even bigger one (even though the amount matched was very small). Well, yesterday the favour was returned.

I was watching the Barnsley v Ipswich match (an amazing goalfest of a game), moving from one overs market to the next in my normal fashion. When the Over 5.5 market was closed (for me anyway), I opened up the Over 6.5 goals market and was amazed to see amounts at 1.55, when I was expecting to see amounts around the 1.40 area. Well, of course I jumped right in with both feet. I threw £200 down on that... and immediately saw my screen turn red.

What the hell was going on? Then I realised, I was looking the screen, expecting the odds to be where they were BEFORE the last goal was just scored. The actual odds were actually trading around the 2.20 area.

"Wanker!", I shouted at myself. My proft for the day (not large in the first place) had vanished in the blink of an eye. Calming myself, I steadily ate away at this red, until yet another goal went in, but such was the steady approach that I took, that I had managed to reduce over £80 red down to £33 red before the goal was scored. This was okay, but I still felt sore at myself for falling for the exact same trick that I happily play on others. Serves me right, I suppose.

As for the rest of the day, well, I must have been caught in a negative position at least four times yesterday, and as you can see there are three losses on my sheet. So, I must be grateful for coming out with the small profit that I have. Under different circumstances, I could have been posting a large loss.

Football: £29.31 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £29.31 

 

Football Showing 1 - 9 of 9 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Inter v Fiorentina : Over/Under 2.5 goals 10-Dec-11 19:45  10-Dec-11 21:40  13.48
Football / Barnsley v Ipswich : Over/Under 6.5 Goals 10-Dec-11 17:20  10-Dec-11 19:08  -33.87
Football / Barnsley v Ipswich : Over/Under 5.5 Goals 10-Dec-11 17:20  10-Dec-11 18:51  18.85
Football / Barnsley v Ipswich : Over/Under 2.5 goals 10-Dec-11 17:20  10-Dec-11 18:37  -15.84
Football / Mainz v Hamburg : Correct Score 10-Dec-11 14:30  10-Dec-11 16:23  17.88
Football / Southampton v Blackpool : Correct Score 10-Dec-11 12:45  10-Dec-11 14:43  45.71
Football / Southampton v Blackpool : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 10-Dec-11 12:45  10-Dec-11 14:41  29.16
Football / Southampton v Blackpool : Over/Under 2.5 goals 10-Dec-11 12:45  10-Dec-11 13:54  -65.65
Football / Bochum v Fortuna Dusseldorf : Correct Score 10-Dec-11 12:00  10-Dec-11 13:51  19.59

Skating on... ?

Took my family ice skating this evening, as an outside rink had been erected in the town centre for Christmas. This was great fun, and I was able to skate around quite efficiently towards the end. Stopping was a bit of a problem, but smashing into the wall seemed to work okay.

Thankfully, today was not a metaphor for my betting this evening. No skating on thin ice :-)

Nice steady profit, and since my crazy behaviour last Sunday, I'm thankful that I have maintained a nice steady approach.


Soccer: £52.67 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £52.67 

 

Soccer Showing 1 - 4 of 4 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Soccer / H Berlin v Schalke : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 09-Dec-11 19:30  09-Dec-11 21:24  8.51
Soccer / H Berlin v Schalke : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 09-Dec-11 19:30  09-Dec-11 21:24  6.95
Soccer / H Berlin v Schalke : Correct Score 09-Dec-11 19:30  09-Dec-11 21:23  26.30
Soccer / H Berlin v Schalke : Over/Under 2.5 goals 09-Dec-11 19:30  09-Dec-11 20:15  10.91

Taking Advantage

Sometimes it's possible to take advantage of other people's mistakes. God knows, others have certainly taken advantage of my mistakes over the years, so I feel absolutely no remorse or concern about doing the same to others (on Betfair that is, not in "real life").

Got home this evening, and saw that the only game that looked to be of interest was the Italian Cup game between Juventus and Bologna. After eating my meal and relaxing with my wife, I pretty much forgot about the game, but then remembered it with just fifteen minutes remaining of the match.

I managed to scrape a small profit on the game, and was heading for around £14, which I would have been happy with. Juventus scored with a couple of minutes remaining, but then Bologna equalised with pretty much the last kick (or in this case header) of the ball.

Waiting for the unsuspend, I placed a fishing order on the next current score at 1.10. The correct odds at that time should have been about 1.02 or 1.03. It's always worth doing this, as sometimes you'll get a bite. I got a very small one - but the small portion of my bet was matched at 6.00! This meant my small profit was immediately doubled. This, in addition to my normal business on the Extra Time market, meant a very worthwhile profit tonight. Lovely.

Soccer: £56.34 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £56.34 

 

Soccer Showing 1 - 2 of 2 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Soccer / Juventus v Bologna : ET - Correct Score 08-Dec-11 20:00  08-Dec-11 22:33  28.28
Soccer / Juventus v Bologna : Correct Score 08-Dec-11 20:00  08-Dec-11 21:56  28.06

General Ramblings

Please forgive the rambling nature of this entry, but with me now back in my hotel for a couple of nights, it’s once again time for me to ponder on all thing betting – without actually getting involved.

I’ll start by detailing for anyone who is interested, how I got started in betting. I was browsing Martin Lewis’s Money Saving webite, when I came across the well-known article on “Matched Gambling”. I hadn’t ever really been interested in gambling before reading this, but it instantly drew my attention.

For those who don’t know, the “matched gambling” technique is simply taking the “free bets” offered by most bookmakers and laying them off on Betfair to eventually guarantee a profit. In this way, I first funded my Betfair account with well over £5,000. Since then, in five years, I have not once had to make a single deposit into my account, and have steadily withdrawn from it whilst maintaining a healthy betting fund. From there, I ventured into straight backing and laying, absorbing any good books that I could find on the subject, whilst also working hard on generating my own stats and looking for edges.

Something I figured out for myself at a very early stage then was to ask myself these questions:

• What are the minimum odds I require to stay in profit based on the win rate percentage of XX.X ?
• What is the minimum win rate percentage I required to stay in profit based on average odds of X.XX ?

Of course, each question is the inverse of the other. But either way, this is an important/vital question that must be asked, and answered. If you are a straight backer/layer, do you know the answer to these questions? Do you even know how to work it out?

Okay, at the danger of teaching my granny how to suck eggs, let’s say you back a hundred horses at average odds of 1.60 and you have a 4.40% commission rate on Betfair, what is the minimum win rate you require to avoid going into the red? It’s simple really: (100 / your_average_odds / 100) + commission_rate.

And if you have a win rate of 55% on straight betting football match odds, what is the average odds you need to stay in the black? Its: 1 / ( win_percentage + commission_rate ).

Okay, these are simple calculations and everyone of you should know these things, but it’s surprising how many people don’t. What about how to inverse back-odds to lay-odds? Do you know how to do that? It’s: (back_odds / (back_odds -1) ). Or to inverse lay-odds to back-odds, it’s: ( lay_odds / (lay_odds -1) ). Yes, it’s that simple. In fact it’s simple as a wrinkle on a pimple.

Once again, you all have my apology if I’m teaching things that you’ve long known, but sometimes we all need a little reminder of the basics. And so, from the stats above, if you win percentage is not high enough for the average odds that you are backing, then you either need to find some way to increase your win rate, or else you need to raise up the odds in order to hit a valid line. Otherwise it’s all pointless and you’ll steadily lose your bank.

Personally, I’ve largely moved away from straight betting these days. Using the calculations above I soon realised that my edge on fixed odds betting was just too small, and that commission was wiping-out all my hard-earned profits. This is why I moved over to trading/scalping, where I have found things to be much healthier for me.

As you have already seen from the small sample of blog entries so far, my trading/scalping is a little bit of a roller-coaster ride, but even with these unnecessary swings in fortune, I still manage to make some money from my trading. If I can learn to lessen the swings, then I feel that I could be heading for larger profits in the near future. Then again, this is all our hopes, isn’t it?

Order Restored

After my huge aberration yesterday, order and discipline and a steady approach have all been thankfully restored. Steady, boring profit today, which is exactly what was required.

I don't have much to report other than to say that I'm very, very happy with the way that things have gone tonight.

Soccer: £64.05 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £64.05 

 

Soccer Showing 1 - 4 of 4 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Soccer / Fulham v Liverpool : Over/Under 2.5 goals 05-Dec-11 20:00  05-Dec-11 21:57  11.34
Soccer / Fulham v Liverpool : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 05-Dec-11 20:00  05-Dec-11 21:57  19.42
Soccer / Fulham v Liverpool : Correct Score 05-Dec-11 20:00  05-Dec-11 21:55  22.71
Soccer / Lazio v Novara : Correct Score 05-Dec-11 19:45  05-Dec-11 21:40  10.58