Let The Bad Times Roll

After my bad day's trading yesterday, I now feel sufficiently removed from the events to discuss it in a bit more detail. Most of what I am about to say will doubtless be filled with the usual platitudes and cliches, but for me they are true nonetheless.

I'd say the way we as traders handle bad losses is as important as the profit we make (or are supposed to make).


First off, I'd like to thank Jan, who had these words:


just like the roman cesars, it helps to be reminded of our mortality, no matter how disciplined one might be. in fact, i welcome such losses up to a certain degree, because it does in fact help me to stay on the ground.

glad to read that you're not overly frustrated, as it's still all about the fun and kicks of it.

cheers
jan

It's nice of Jan to offer some encouragement, although I'm not sure I can join him in welcoming losses as readily as he seems to do. I do take his point that sometimes we all need a little corrective slap on the wrist to help us stay on the path and, looking back over the last few weeks, with things going so well, I had definitely grown steadily more complacent and over-confident. If this is indeed true, then I suppose Jan is correct.

The other interesting thing for me is the peaks and valleys nature of betting and trading, which I believe I've talked about before. When in the deepest part of the valley, we often can't see any way out and wonder if we'll ever start winning again. And when riding high and things are going well, we forget the valleys and start to feel as if this game is easy.

To get into the details of my losses, these came largely from my pattern-observation trade that I talked about previously. This means I will always red-out at some point if my trades haven't worked out how I want them to. Yesterday, nearly every one I tried out didn't work out and I had to take red after red.

One way to look at this, if I'm convinced that I have indeed found a pattern worth persuing (and after back-testing it, I am convinced), then I can only put yesterdays losses down to variance. There will always be kinks and putting to one side an idea just because of one bad day would be a huge mistake. Even though my confidence has undoubtedly taken a bit of a knock, I will definitely continue and see my idea out.

There is no way on earth I will be chasing down this loss. I was not able to trade during the day today, but I got home in time for the Everton v Spurs match (Spurs unfortunately seem to be sliding towards the Europa league at present) and also did a couple of other trades. There was a definite feeling of taking things slowly and being a little more reserved than normal, but under the circumstances this is no bad thing. So I will take it easy, try and forget about yesterday with regards to trading on each day, and see how I go.

Football: £99.98 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £99.98 

 

Football Showing 1 - 6 of 6 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Palermo v Roma : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 10-Mar-12 19:45  10-Mar-12 21:40  11.55
Football / Palermo v Roma : Over/Under 2.5 goals 10-Mar-12 19:45  10-Mar-12 21:40  10.21
Football / Palermo v Roma : Correct Score 10-Mar-12 19:45  10-Mar-12 21:39  17.72
Football / Everton v Tottenham : Over/Under 2.5 goals 10-Mar-12 17:30  10-Mar-12 19:30  13.84
Football / Everton v Tottenham : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 10-Mar-12 17:30  10-Mar-12 19:29  -3.80
Football / Malaga v Levante : Correct Score 10-Mar-12 17:00  10-Mar-12 18:55  50.46

What A Stunner

Unfortunately I'm not talking about the friendly-looking woman on the left. No, I'm talking about a stunner of a loss today - just about the largest one day loss that I can ever remember. Oh deary, deary me.

I suppose I can point to some bad decision-making as I started betting early when I should have been working (I'm not quite sure what that is all about). I do also feel I have been a little unlucky today. There was also a combination of events that I feel assured won't visit me again in the very near future - the moon was in line with Neptune and Orion, and all the lay lines that meet in my district melded into a convergance of evil forces that decended upon my house, momentarily creating an awesome destructive force that tore into my betting bank like there was no tomorrow. What are the chances of that happening?

... Either that, or I was a lazy turd. I'm not sure which it was. The only saving grace about today was that there was not a single trace of chasing throughout the whole sorry affair. That and the fact that I don't really feel as bad as I should after such a day. I suppose I should also comfort myself with the fact that, even though we are only nine days into this month, even with the vile loss today, I'm still up on the month. Quick. What else can I use to assuage the horror of today?

Having said all that, I do now feel the need to pay an overdue visit to my (thankfully) replenished drinks cabinet, to find solace in a nice malt whiskey.

Sadly - or perhaps it's good - I don't think I'm going to have much time tomorrow to try and turn the tide of this shite day. I'll be out most of the day, but I may have time for some trading in the evening.

Signing off for the moment. Now just where the hell is that drink?


Football: -£602.10 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  -£602.10 

 

Football Showing 1 - 13 of 13 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Chievo v Inter : Correct Score 09-Mar-12 19:45  09-Mar-12 21:37  -81.75
Football / Stuttgart v Kaiserslautern : Correct Score 09-Mar-12 19:30  09-Mar-12 21:20  0.76
Football / Kidderminster v Fleetwood Town : Correct Score 09-Mar-12 19:30  09-Mar-12 21:20  50.46
Football / Stuttgart v Kaiserslautern : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 09-Mar-12 19:30  09-Mar-12 21:19  5.79
Football / Stuttgart v Kaiserslautern : Over/Under 2.5 goals 09-Mar-12 19:30  09-Mar-12 21:19  10.29
Football / Ajaccio v Marseille : Correct Score 09-Mar-12 19:00  09-Mar-12 20:52  -113.47
Football / BW Linz v St Polten : Correct Score 09-Mar-12 17:30  09-Mar-12 19:24  -116.95
Football / Paderborn v Bochum : Correct Score 09-Mar-12 17:00  09-Mar-12 18:56  -148.92
Football / Union Berlin v Duisburg : Correct Score 09-Mar-12 17:00  09-Mar-12 18:52  50.46
Football / G Furth v Aachen : Correct Score 09-Mar-12 17:00  09-Mar-12 18:49  -147.22
Football / Sibenik v Rijeka : Correct Score 09-Mar-12 17:00  09-Mar-12 18:48  2.37
Football / FC Nitra v Zilina : Correct Score 09-Mar-12 16:30  09-Mar-12 18:17  10.21
Football / CSKA Moscow v Dinamo Moscow : Correct Score 09-Mar-12 10:00  09-Mar-12 11:55  -124.13

It's All A Matter Of Regression

I'll start tonight answering a question I should have answered two days ago but have been too lazy. The question came from Rob, and was a question on my original match odds compiling post:

Are those "noise reduction" figure always the same for the home and away team?

The short answer is, "no". The long answer is that if you really want to be accurate, then you'll need to gather all the goal supremacy data together for each league that you're interested in, and then run a regression analysis on the data to "iron-out" the kinks and remove the noise. The figures I have given you are based on English football and does cover a great deal of data, but data invariablly moves on, and of course there are undoubtedly differences in characteristics between all the different leagues.

The figures I've given you should do a decent job, nonetheless, but the idea behind my posts on this subject (and yes, I do realise that I still have more to do) was to provide as simple a method as possible. The raw goal difference calculation is simple enough, but turning that into match odds is a bit more tricky, and I didn't really want to delve too deeply into it.

If you are interested in looking a bit further into regression analysis, then you can run this in Excel. It's not installed by default but is part of the Analysis Toolpak. In Excel 2010, go to the BackStage view, Options, Add-ins, then make sure the Analysis ToolPak is enabled.

You can also read about regression analysis HERE

____________________________________________

I had a good night on the Europa games tonight. I was very impressed with Athletico Bilbao against Man Utd. Great passing side. Incisive, strong and direct. All their players also looked comfortable with the ball at their feet. Despite the surfeit of goals in the game, I still got a good total out of it, whilst also running my new "flavour of the month" correct score trade on the Man City and Twente matches.

My P&L includes yesterday's efforts also. Wednesday's trading resulted in a £0.75p loss.


Soccer: £172.92 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £172.92 

 

Soccer Showing 1 - 6 of 6 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Soccer / Man Utd v Ath Bilbao : Correct Score 08-Mar-12 20:05  08-Mar-12 21:58  32.85
Soccer / Man Utd v Ath Bilbao : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 08-Mar-12 20:05  08-Mar-12 21:51  9.21
Soccer / Man Utd v Ath Bilbao : Over/Under 2.5 goals 08-Mar-12 20:05  08-Mar-12 21:33  21.95
Soccer / Sp Lisbon v Man City : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 08-Mar-12 18:00  08-Mar-12 19:59  7.71
Soccer / Sp Lisbon v Man City : Correct Score 08-Mar-12 18:00  08-Mar-12 19:54  50.65
Soccer / Twente v Schalke : Correct Score 08-Mar-12 18:00  08-Mar-12 19:53  50.55

Dave Really Is a Wizard

I don't think that Dave (gundulf) from Betfair Trading - the highs and the lows actually looks like this picture - but really he should do. He is indeed a wizard.

Dave, tonight, put up a post highlighting that A.C. Milan were 1.04 in the To Qualify market, and with Arsenal all set to give it their best, this provided a good trading opportunity. Well, as you know by now, Dave got it absolutely spot on. Arsenal came out all guns (no pun intended) blazing and were 3-0 up by half-time. During the break, Milan went up to 1.49 to back, which gave a lovely green-up at that point.

This was 100% Dave's work and so I would like to thank him here for highlighting an excellent opportunity. As I commented on his blog. Top job.

If you haven't checked out Dave's blog, I'd suggest you head over there now. It's always worth reading.

____________________________________________

Thanks to Dave I did well on the Arsenal game, but had mixed results on my other trades mainly due to trouble at' mill. It appears that Betfair (and many other bookies) lost their live feeds of the Championship and League One matches and so these were suspended for long periods of time. This was unfortunate to say the least as I had approximately £1,800 liability on several games at the time.

The nature of my trades on these matches means that I start-off with a large liability, but I never allow that full liability to be realised and trade-out well before the end of the match. Seeing all these games with a big fat SUSPEND sign was therefore somewhat disconcerting, as you can imagine.

In the second half, the matches slowly were unsuspended match by match, but this had wiped-out all the liquidity and I found myself struggling to close my positions in some places.

Overall, however, a good night due to the Arsenal game and due to Dave highlighting the opportunity:

Football: £263.66 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £263.66 

 

Football Showing 1 - 7 of 7 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Bristol City v Leicester : Correct Score 06-Mar-12 19:45  06-Mar-12 21:50  50.74
Football / Birmingham v Chelsea : Correct Score 06-Mar-12 19:45  06-Mar-12 21:44  50.46
Football / Peterborough v Millwall : Correct Score 06-Mar-12 19:45  06-Mar-12 21:43  43.88
Football / Derby v Blackpool : Correct Score 06-Mar-12 19:45  06-Mar-12 21:43  50.93
Football / Arsenal v AC Milan : To Qualify 06-Mar-12 19:45  06-Mar-12 21:42  214.30
Football / Huddersfield v Hartlepool : Correct Score 06-Mar-12 19:45  06-Mar-12 21:41  -162.00
Football / Charlton v Colchester : Correct Score 06-Mar-12 19:45  06-Mar-12 21:40  15.35

____________________________________________

I was sorely tempted to go back to yesterday's post and edit it, as there are incorrect references and several spelling mistakes (which always annoy me) littered throughout. But, I'll shall resist the temptation and leave it up there as proof positive that drinking makes you look like a grade "A" toss-pot. Be warned, one and all.

And to Rob. I'll try and answer your comment tomorrow now.

Welcome

Don't worry. I haven't been shafted.

No, the reason for the picture is that I've been attacking the arse-end of my drinks cabinet tonight. Yes, Cherry Liquer, Mulled wine, Ouzo (the worst drink in the world, incidentally) and some old brandy from a company I've never heard of, but who have decided to bottle their shite in an amusingly-shaped bottle.

So, all-in-all, I'm happily arseholed - which doesn't go too well with the fact that I have to get up at 5:00am tomorrow morning for my travels to work. Oh well. Fuck it.

As I have mentioned previously, I heartily recommend drinking and trading. It's the best of all possible worlds, as Candice would say. I also regularly seem to do well when I'm drinking too.

I carried on my "away-from-home" trading today, which seems to have taken something of a front seat recently, and with splendiferous results. I really like the trade I persue as it only has a small downside, but ends-up a winner most times. This, as mentioned before, is a result of studying the data and discovering an intersting pattern.

Unfortunately this method meant I had to watch the match between Dinamo Moscow and Anzhi Makhachkala. Dire doesn't really capture it. Awful quality of football from both sides.

I also caught the end of the Southend game on the googly box and managed to pick up a few pennies there too. Southend went down to nine men towards the end. They had a man sent off and, after having made three subs, had a man stretchered off. They did really well to hold out for a point.

Suppose I should offer a half-hearted apologiy as my recent posts have been rather short and curt. I'll endeavour to string more than a couple of sentences together while I'm in my hotel during the week.

Football: £103.69 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £103.69 

 

Football Showing 1 - 5 of 5 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Southend v Crawley Town : Correct Score 05-Mar-12 19:45  05-Mar-12 21:43  42.61
Football / 1860 Munich v St Pauli : Correct Score 05-Mar-12 19:15  05-Mar-12 21:07  -90.30
Football / OB v Silkeborg : Correct Score 05-Mar-12 18:00  05-Mar-12 19:49  50.46
Football / Sivasspor v Galatasaray : Correct Score 05-Mar-12 18:00  05-Mar-12 19:48  50.46
Football / Dinamo Moscow v Anzhi Makhachkala : Correct Score 05-Mar-12 15:30  05-Mar-12 17:31  50.46

Know When To Stop

Decent enough day today, but frustrated as it should have been very good indeed. I felt mentally tired towards the end of the Spurs v Man Utd game and so should have just switched off at that point. If I had then I would have made over £270 today but instead I finished up with just £100.

I suppose this was part greed, part wanting to cap-off the day with a nice feeling. Must learn to know when to stop. Yet another lesson, I suppose, on the path to becoming a decent trader.





Football: £108.72 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £108.72 

 

Football Showing 1 - 13 of 13 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Football / Tottenham v Man Utd : Correct Score 04-Mar-12 16:10  04-Mar-12 18:03  -142.70
Football / Tottenham v Man Utd : Over/Under 2.5 goals 04-Mar-12 16:10  04-Mar-12 17:38  20.72
Football / Tottenham v Man Utd : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 04-Mar-12 16:10  04-Mar-12 17:30  9.40
Football / Fulham v Wolves : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 04-Mar-12 14:05  04-Mar-12 15:25  5.29
Football / Bursaspor v Karabukspor : Correct Score 04-Mar-12 13:00  04-Mar-12 14:49  50.46
Football / Cardiff v West Ham : Correct Score 04-Mar-12 12:45  04-Mar-12 14:43  17.06
Football / Cardiff v West Ham : Over/Under 2.5 goals 04-Mar-12 12:45  04-Mar-12 14:42  6.68
Football / Cardiff v West Ham : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 04-Mar-12 12:45  04-Mar-12 14:21  2.14
Football / Eintracht Frankfurt v Cottbus : Correct Score 04-Mar-12 12:30  04-Mar-12 14:20  50.46
Football / Newcastle v Sunderland : Correct Score 04-Mar-12 12:00  04-Mar-12 14:06  21.69
Football / Newcastle v Sunderland : Over/Under 2.5 goals 04-Mar-12 12:00  04-Mar-12 14:03  14.59
Football / Parma v Napoli : Correct Score 04-Mar-12 11:30  04-Mar-12 13:23  50.93
Football / Parma v Napoli : Over/Under 2.5 goals 04-Mar-12 11:30  04-Mar-12 13:15  2.00

Snippets

Have been reading The Hidden Mathematics of Sport, which is a good fun read and something you can devour in a couple of hours.

It covers a variety of sports and has such interesting topics as where we should aim on a dartboard, how to take a penalty in football, what is the most crucial point in tennis, how in tennis the "loser" can win the match - and so on. All good fun, interesting stuff.

As a footy fan, of course there was also lots of stuff to keep me entertained too, and included a variety of little informational nuggets that were worth digesting.

• Over 30 seasons, home teams score on average  1.5 goals per game.
• Away teams score on average 1.1 goals per game.
• The 1-1 scoreline is the most common result, occuring in approximately 12 per cent of matches.
• The 1-0 and 2-1 home win results are the two next most frequent results.
• The most common away win scoreline is 0-1.
• Goals are scored at an average rate of one every 35 minutes.
• More goals are scored in the second half of games, on average, than in the first.
• Home teams who score first in a match have, on average, over 60% chance of winning the match.
• Any team who scores last in a match has, on average, over 60% chance of winning the match.

A lot of these are well-known already by the majority of bettors, but there also a few that are not so well-known.

______________________________________

Haven't had much time this weekend so far, and so have largely continued my "away from home" strategies. P&L from today and yesterday.

Football: £222.92 | Horse Racing: £0.08 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £223.00 

  

   

  

Football Showing 1 - 13 of 13 markets

  

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)

Football / Juventus v Chievo : Correct Score 03-Mar-12 19:45  03-Mar-12 21:40  50.46

Football / Nancy v Lyon : Correct Score 03-Mar-12 18:00  03-Mar-12 19:49  50.46

Football / Getafe v Malaga : Correct Score 03-Mar-12 17:00  03-Mar-12 18:53  50.46

Football / Birmingham v Derby : Correct Score 03-Mar-12 15:00  03-Mar-12 17:09  50.46

Football / Leverkusen v B Munich : Correct Score 03-Mar-12 14:30  03-Mar-12 16:23  -106.00

Football / Liverpool v Arsenal : Over/Under 2.5 goals 03-Mar-12 12:45  03-Mar-12 14:37  20.09

Football / Aachen v Paderborn : Correct Score 03-Mar-12 12:00  03-Mar-12 13:49  50.46

Football / Blackpool v Hull : Correct Score 02-Mar-12 19:45  02-Mar-12 21:43  36.58

Football / Blackpool v Hull : Over/Under 2.5 goals 02-Mar-12 19:45  02-Mar-12 21:38  19.28

Football / Laval v Lens : Correct Score 02-Mar-12 19:00  02-Mar-12 20:50  50.46

Football / Ingolstadt v Union Berlin : Correct Score 02-Mar-12 17:00  02-Mar-12 18:54  50.46

Football / Duisburg v G Furth : Correct Score 02-Mar-12 17:00  02-Mar-12 18:50  -152.83

Football / Sao Paulo v Guaratingueta : Correct Score 01-Mar-12 22:30  02-Mar-12 00:22  52.58