tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9099266607460111330.post1698905083610852223..comments2022-10-23T11:13:32.986+01:00Comments on A Football Trader's Path: Poisson For DummiesSoccerDudehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07830266261515231776noreply@blogger.comBlogger29125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9099266607460111330.post-21523574797003153142015-01-24T13:10:02.493+00:002015-01-24T13:10:02.493+00:00A great tutorial, and yes it is something worth in...A great tutorial, and yes it is something worth investing into. We like this method so much we needed to automate it to save time. We now have our own Football Poisson Distribution calculator. http://www.footballtippingapp.comValue Tipshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00174608093266392596noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9099266607460111330.post-50863834665686432032012-12-20T20:55:20.881+00:002012-12-20T20:55:20.881+00:00Hi SoccerDude,
I have just come across this gorge...Hi SoccerDude,<br /><br />I have just come across this gorgeous article, and I wonder how you would feel if we re-published your article on our blog, Soccerwidow.com. Of course, we would name you as the author and provide a back link to your blog.<br /><br />Soccerwidow has some 500 readers daily and hould you be interested please kindly get back via email: admin[at]soccerwidow[dot]com<br /><br />Cheers!<br />SoccerwidowSoccerwidowhttp://www.soccerwidow.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9099266607460111330.post-27341055046218655862012-11-30T11:35:04.206+00:002012-11-30T11:35:04.206+00:00Thanks for this and the linked post - really helpf...Thanks for this and the linked post - really helpfulAndyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08888598176070009724noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9099266607460111330.post-8548539052320977002012-10-19T21:53:22.313+01:002012-10-19T21:53:22.313+01:00Hi Matt
Thanks for taking the time to add in some...Hi Matt<br /><br />Thanks for taking the time to add in some additional help for everyone. Much appreciated. <br /><br />Cheers<br />Eddie.SoccerDudehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07830266261515231776noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9099266607460111330.post-37725215564804760192012-10-19T01:00:50.478+01:002012-10-19T01:00:50.478+01:00Goal expectancy - you can make this pretty simple,...Goal expectancy - you can make this pretty simple, just do the reverse of this article. Take all the result from man city season i.e. (made up) all games where man city have scored once... say this is 10 times. then for 10/38 games there 1 goal. use this as your expectancy as a basic perception.<br /><br />The interest point here i think is calculating the margin of the win. i.e. mancity to win by a goal, using this likelihood, will be much more telling. as the futher distrubtion will be sign they win by more than one goal.<br /><br />Hope that makes sense.Mattnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9099266607460111330.post-10038409952876857152012-10-19T00:11:43.031+01:002012-10-19T00:11:43.031+01:00Thought I'd lend a hand too on the prob side, ...Thought I'd lend a hand too on the prob side, in lehmans terms.<br /><br />Q - Whats the likelihood of being hit by lighting?<br />A - Small<br />Q - Whats the likelihood of being hit twice?<br />A - Much Smaller<br />Q - Q - Whats the likelihood of being hit three times?<br />A - Much Much Smaller.<br /><br />and so on, you get the drift. Hence the p(0) is anything but zero. This should explain it.<br /><br />Cheers again, <br />MattMattnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9099266607460111330.post-74381585567684375372012-10-18T23:48:28.683+01:002012-10-18T23:48:28.683+01:00Thought I'd explain.
n! = n.(n-1).(n-2)....3....Thought I'd explain.<br /><br />n! = n.(n-1).(n-2)....3.2.1 <br />hence <br />n! = n.(n-1)!<br /><br />n!/n = n.(n-1)!/n<br /><br />n!/n = (n-1)!<br /><br />Now lets say n=1.<br /><br />1!/1 = (1-1)!<br />1 = (0)!<br />Proof complete<br /><br />Cheers<br />Matt<br />Mattnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9099266607460111330.post-71192208065764929222012-09-19T21:07:41.926+01:002012-09-19T21:07:41.926+01:00This comment has been removed by the author.DomiDarkohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03187314967358763559noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9099266607460111330.post-91630741273545343082012-06-11T12:07:00.699+01:002012-06-11T12:07:00.699+01:00Hi Eddie,
Did you finally write the post about the...Hi Eddie,<br />Did you finally write the post about the calculation of goal expectancy values? I couldn't find it. ThanksAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9099266607460111330.post-64017219020791966822012-03-24T19:24:36.744+00:002012-03-24T19:24:36.744+00:00Hi Wellstorm
Thanks for the compliment and for th...Hi Wellstorm<br /><br />Thanks for the compliment and for the encouragement. It's always nice to get good feedback. Appreciated.SoccerDudehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07830266261515231776noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9099266607460111330.post-69886062063441324822012-03-24T10:09:14.999+00:002012-03-24T10:09:14.999+00:00This is my new favourite blogger. Very informative...This is my new favourite blogger. Very informative, easy to read and funny to boot. Superb.Wellstormnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9099266607460111330.post-85845842856866818322012-02-11T14:34:13.810+00:002012-02-11T14:34:13.810+00:00Great. I look forward to it.
Thanks anyway for a c...Great. I look forward to it.<br />Thanks anyway for a clear explanation of Poisson. <br />Now I'm off to bed...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9099266607460111330.post-7620977761361294902012-02-08T21:15:25.601+00:002012-02-08T21:15:25.601+00:00Hi Mr. Lazy. With your attitude, you're a man ...Hi Mr. Lazy. With your attitude, you're a man after my own heart. I quite understand what you're saying. <br /><br />Unfortunately this blasted Poisson does insist that you calculate all the scores before you can determine the match odds.<br /><br />However, don't be dismayed as I will endeavour to put together a post in the near future on other "simple" methods of compiling match odds. There is more than one way to skin a cat, and we don't always have to use a fish to do so. <br /><br />Eddie.SoccerDudehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07830266261515231776noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9099266607460111330.post-57187450451258135552012-02-08T12:14:20.935+00:002012-02-08T12:14:20.935+00:00Hi,
You mention that 'you can ...group all th...Hi,<br /><br />You mention that 'you can ...group all the home win, away win and draw scorelines to provide you with percentage probabilities for the match odds...'<br />Thats a lot of work, and I'm quite lazy ! Is there any other way to use poisson to calculate match-odds and short-cut calculating all the different score outcomes ?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9099266607460111330.post-39013735757757298682012-01-24T19:04:03.430+00:002012-01-24T19:04:03.430+00:00Dave, you're absolutely right. This is one asp...Dave, you're absolutely right. This is one aspect of the CS market that I like. Plenty of opportunities after a goal is scored.SoccerDudehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07830266261515231776noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9099266607460111330.post-23990510487937325312012-01-23T22:43:38.785+00:002012-01-23T22:43:38.785+00:00Over reaction, particularly in the Correct Score m...Over reaction, particularly in the Correct Score market, offers massive opportunities in play.gundulfhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14717805670066513485noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9099266607460111330.post-68610054754924386342012-01-20T18:02:35.205+00:002012-01-20T18:02:35.205+00:00No problem, I've been thinking about getting i...No problem, I've been thinking about getting into football trading for a while so your blog is a breath of fresh air.<br /><br />I used to play around with a version of Poisson weighted for certain scorelines and my spreads and odds would be pretty much mid spread of the firms prices. Always thought the real value lies within the in play prices rather than pre off as there's a tendency for people to overreact once the events underway. Plus once you have total goals and supremacy the related markets are pretty easy to calculate and more likely to be out of line than maybe the main win market.BotTraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00681228672528767200noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9099266607460111330.post-66673201829884527922012-01-20T14:43:17.503+00:002012-01-20T14:43:17.503+00:00Hi Lazy Trader
I don't have what you're a...Hi Lazy Trader<br /><br />I don't have what you're asking for, I'm afraind.<br /><br />Coincidentally, I am in the process of modelling the odds decay for the Over/Unders market, which I suppose won't be a million miles away. I still don't have this complete though and, with my time getting squeezed recently, I'm not sure when I'll have it finished.<br /><br />Thanks for reading.SoccerDudehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07830266261515231776noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9099266607460111330.post-61239175667388027642012-01-20T14:05:51.198+00:002012-01-20T14:05:51.198+00:00Thanks for the write up, do you have any reliable ...Thanks for the write up, do you have any reliable maths to predict goal expectancy over time in order to calculate half time scores in running scores etc.<br /><br />Good to see people posting up theories behind betting rather than straightforward I backed this etcBotTraderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00681228672528767200noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9099266607460111330.post-82713781457253377692012-01-19T23:22:51.236+00:002012-01-19T23:22:51.236+00:00Hi Average Guy
I do hope to post on the subject y...Hi Average Guy<br /><br />I do hope to post on the subject you've mentioned, but perhaps don't be too eager. First-off, it's a very dry subject which is rather dull to write and probably, for many, dull to read. It also takes quite a long time to gather all my thoughts on such a subject.<br /><br />As I say, I will endeavour to continue the post, as I did rather leave it hanging in the air. I just can't tell you when I'll do it.<br /><br />CheersSoccerDudehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07830266261515231776noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9099266607460111330.post-65302874536414358052012-01-19T21:33:58.762+00:002012-01-19T21:33:58.762+00:00Please, please, please do a post on goal expectanc...Please, please, please do a post on goal expectancy, or is it a simple as average goals scorer over a certain number of games either home or away in the league for example.Average Guyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02539140021038579680noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9099266607460111330.post-47848993938090562612012-01-19T19:31:40.886+00:002012-01-19T19:31:40.886+00:00To Peter, thanks for the encouragement. Much appre...To Peter, thanks for the encouragement. Much appreciated.<br /><br />To first anon, if you read my post on Poisson, at the end I say roughly that. It will however point you in the right direction and is better than nothing. Also, allied with other factors, it can be a good aide.<br /><br />To second anon. Thanks for the compliment. It's nice to know someone is enjoying all my ramblings!SoccerDudehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07830266261515231776noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9099266607460111330.post-37258170220030324102012-01-19T18:04:10.860+00:002012-01-19T18:04:10.860+00:00Hi,
just spent many hours reading your blog. Its ...Hi,<br /><br />just spent many hours reading your blog. Its a really enjoyable read.Keep it up !<br /><br />EddyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9099266607460111330.post-15907357274613206292012-01-19T12:53:07.553+00:002012-01-19T12:53:07.553+00:00Poisson doesn't actually work very well for fo...Poisson doesn't actually work very well for forecasting. So thanks for adding more value to the market. Crunch away guys.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9099266607460111330.post-58411486610222537522012-01-18T23:45:17.151+00:002012-01-18T23:45:17.151+00:00Prior to this poisson was a perfume that women use...Prior to this poisson was a perfume that women used to wear in the 80's and a band that sang "Every rose has it's thorn" which was also in the 80's<br /><br />Many thanks for posting Eddie, it certainly is written in such a way that a mathmatically challenged imbecile such as myself can understand...............my IQ???? In the 80's :-)Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01592289250942413048noreply@blogger.com